1/2/2018- after the failure of the measured move target, we came up with some additional targets. it certainly appears we have TWO 3-drives to a top patterns coming together w/ very nice time symmetry. not to sound the alarm here BUT this has the makings of a very important and large top for the Utility sector.
Continue reading “I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update…and another update”
08/24/2017 – hard to believe it’s been a YEAR since I last posted on the Utilities … at the time, as you can see below, the DJ Utilities Average was about to equal it’s measured move (the blue arrows) along w/ hitting a 3 drive monthly pattern at the 2nd drives 1.618 expansion target. The market DID REACT but not in the manner expected. While this number did stop the market in it’s tracks, we have ultimately blown thru this pattern and it has now failed. Folks, that is a big deal … monthly patterns like this are USUALLY (the operative word) walls of china for support or resistance.
So, as long as the Utilities are continuing higher … rates ain’t budging in my mind.
You can also see below some ‘future’ targets to consider.
Wow, that was an epic failure of a monthly pattern …
Bart
August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking? Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned. the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT? watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.
Bart
6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
9/3/2016 – have been doing some work over @seeitmarket w/ Andy and the gang here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/defensive-sector-etfs-hit-targets-reversals-next-tlt-xlu-16014/
also, note the breakdown on Friday of the 30 year support .. this is looking very heavy.
here’s an update to the charts:
August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking? Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned. the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT? watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.
Bart
6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
06/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
The S&P 500 has been climbing a stairway to Heaven ..
folks coming into 2015 we had some pretty strong patterns appearing. some worked and some didn’t – isn’t that what we expect? that being said, it was prudent to be cautious due to their presence.
here’s what I posted around a year ago:
“Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.”
so, while we’ve sold off for the past couple days let’s not go crazy. we have broken ONE swing low and that’s it, and it’s ONLY a weekly. WE HAVE NOT BROKEN A MONTHLY SWING LOW.
so, keep it ALL context of the big picture. We break a swing low on a MONTHLY and then a second then we have “issues.”
but for now, EVERYONE knows this puppy was on steroids and need some shaking out so let’s look for a pattern to BUY on a weekly (hint hint – it needs to breathe a bit) and if a bear I would still be very cautious.
what do we know and see … ?
so, here’s the logic:
enjoy the post below .. you’ll see some of the patterns were early, some were spot on. that’s not the point .. the entire post below is around the market action around a SWING LOW or SWING HI and to respect them — very very strongly.
let me know if you have any questions.
chart below is the ES .. note the red horizontal swing lows. those have never been broken on close. it might happen tomorrow …
Bart
As we have discussed multiple times in this venue, the move since 2009 has been one heck of a ride. This chariot of stock market emotion is, literally, off the charts. It is at an extreme that has surpassed 1929, 2000 and 2007. For the past 6 months it has defied the powerful cycles and patterns we follow. However, we are at another “potential” inflection point and based on this weeks price action the chariot appears to be running out of gas. So, objectively, the cycles and patterns we follow appear to be working. Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.
August 25, 2014:
CLIFF NOTES: please see below to understand the importance of our recent high at 577. The long term PATTERN from the all time low completed. Now, we have the beginning formation of the trusted and true head and shoulders pattern on the DJ Utility Index. Why is this important …? Well, look below at the fractal that existed at the top in 2007-2008. It’s exactly the same PATTERN. So, in a nutshell:
folks it’s a PATTERN — it WILL work or it WON’t but it’s a PATTERN.
April 05, 2014
CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist. I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish. Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.
On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension. That is bearish. It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern. Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades. These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.
CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist. I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish. Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.
On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension. That is bearish. It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern. Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades. These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.
CLIFF NOTES: major target appearing on Dow Jones Utilities at/around 573. Definitely the stronger of the Dow components but 1) monthly divergence is presenting itself, 2) a possible 5 wave (monthly) count completing, 3) THE AB=CD pattern from the all time low in 1942 is a little higher …so, believe this is the most important index to watch over the next couple weeks.
