I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update…and another update

1/2/2018- after the failure of the measured move target, we came up with some additional targets. it certainly appears we have TWO 3-drives to a top patterns coming together w/ very nice time symmetry.  not to sound the alarm here BUT this has the makings of a very important and large top for the Utility sector.

 

Continue reading “I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update…and another update”

I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update

08/24/2017 – hard to believe it’s been a YEAR since I last posted on the Utilities … at the time, as you can see below, the DJ Utilities Average was about to equal it’s measured move (the blue arrows) along w/ hitting a 3 drive monthly pattern at the 2nd drives 1.618 expansion target.  The market DID REACT but not in the manner expected. While this number did stop the market in it’s tracks, we have ultimately blown thru this pattern and it has now failed. Folks, that is a big deal … monthly patterns like this are USUALLY (the operative word) walls of china for support or resistance.

So, as long as the Utilities are continuing higher … rates ain’t budging in my mind.

You can also see below some ‘future’ targets to consider.

Wow, that was an epic failure of a monthly pattern …

Bart


 

August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking?  Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned.  the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT?  watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.

BartPage_16-08-07_10-45-35

 

 

 



6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction.  Questions?

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going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close.  Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.

page_16-04-05_22-07-44

@seeitmarket w/ TLT and a quick look at the 30 year …

9/3/2016 – have been doing some work over @seeitmarket w/ Andy and the gang here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/defensive-sector-etfs-hit-targets-reversals-next-tlt-xlu-16014/

also, note the breakdown on Friday of the 30 year support .. this is looking very heavy.

here’s an update to the charts:

Page_16-09-03_14-21-43 Page_16-09-03_14-18-43

 

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I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update

August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking?  Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned.  the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT?  watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.

BartPage_16-08-07_10-45-35

 

 

 



6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction.  Questions?

Page_16-06-06_21-17-05

 

 



going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close.  Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.

page_16-04-05_22-07-44

I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities

06/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction.  Questions?

Page_16-06-06_21-17-05

 

 



going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close.  Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.

page_16-04-05_22-07-44

“I think this is a song of hope …” Robert Plant Live Stairway to Heaven

The S&P 500 has been climbing a stairway to Heaven ..

download

folks coming into 2015 we had some pretty strong patterns appearing.  some worked and some didn’t – isn’t that what we expect? that being said, it was prudent to be cautious due to their presence.

here’s what I posted around a year ago:

“Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.”

so, while we’ve sold off for the past couple days let’s not go crazy.  we have broken ONE swing low and that’s it, and it’s ONLY a weekly.  WE HAVE NOT BROKEN A MONTHLY SWING LOW.

so, keep it ALL context of the big picture.  We break a swing low on a MONTHLY and then a second then we have “issues.”

but for now, EVERYONE knows this puppy was on steroids and need some shaking out so let’s look for a pattern to BUY on a weekly (hint hint – it needs to breathe a bit) and if a bear I would still be very cautious.

what do we know and see … ?

  • we know a weekly swing low is about to be taken out and we’ll know that ONLY WITH THE CLOSE TOMORROW … we also know this has NEVER happened since March 2009 bull market began.

so, here’s the logic:

  • if weekly close below a swing low … get defensive.
  • if not, then keep in mind, we have pressure on the downside and it probably needs to breathe down so just chill …

enjoy the post below .. you’ll see some of the patterns were early, some were spot on.  that’s not the point .. the entire post below is around the market action around a SWING LOW or SWING HI and to respect them — very very strongly.

let me know if you have any questions.

chart below is the ES .. note the red horizontal swing lows. those have never been broken on close. it might happen tomorrow …

Bart

S&P Futures Swing Lows since 2009
S&P Futures Swing Lows since 2009

 

 

 


chariot-topper

As we have discussed multiple times in this venue, the move since 2009 has been one heck of a ride.  This chariot of stock market emotion is, literally, off the charts.  It is at an extreme that has surpassed 1929, 2000 and 2007.  For the past 6 months it has defied the powerful cycles and patterns we follow.  However, we are at another “potential” inflection point and based on this weeks price action the chariot appears to be running out of gas.  So, objectively, the cycles and patterns we follow appear to be working.  Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.

djia march 15 2014

Below you’ll see a quick demonstration of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2002-2009.  No patterns shown but just an example of the power of the swing low.  Take note, when we lose one swing low there is usually some selling and then it bounces back and, here’s the key point, it fails to make a new high.  Price might congest in this area (going either direction – up or down) and then it starts down.  One thing to watch is “usually” the third swing low. When that gives away, selling is vicious.  So, as much as we see MAJOR patterns completing let’s not get to confident.  THE MAJOR US INDICES HAVE NOT BROKEN ONE SWING LOW IN 5 YEARS.  Over the coming weeks, pay attention to these swing lows and swing highs (note the VIX chart – not one swing high has been taken out since 2007!)
swings
VIX SWING HIGHS
Also, note the Dollar Index swing low track record and the very thin neckline that is coming into play a little lower.  We’ve reached some daily extremes in metals (Gold, Silver) and the Euro and Pound.  Sentiment means nothing when a multi year extreme is taken out and one that has been tested roughly 10 times since 2012.  Folks, a lot of stops are hiding beneath 78-79 on the dollar index.  Certainly hope support holds here …
Dollar Index Swings
so, keep an eye on the swing lows and highs over the coming days and weeks … note price action after a first or second swing low is taken out and, seriously consider safety if/when a 3rd long term swing low is taken out to the up or down side ….
CHINESE YUAN 3152014
DJU March 15 2014 utility and industrials
dow jones transports march 15 2014
COPPER CORRELATIONFXI 032014 EEM 03152014

Fractal Present on the Utilities – check it out

August 25, 2014:

CLIFF NOTES: please see below to understand the importance of our recent high at 577.  The long term PATTERN from the all time low completed.  Now, we have the beginning formation of the trusted and true head and shoulders pattern on the DJ Utility Index.  Why is this important …?  Well, look below at the fractal that existed at the top in 2007-2008.  It’s exactly the same PATTERN.  So, in a nutshell:

  • we completed a major pattern on the Utilities up at 577.
  • a head and shoulders pattern is forming the right shoulder, now.
  • the same FRACTAL is present at the time, here’s a cool video to show fractals at work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVwoYVkg-m4

folks it’s a PATTERN — it WILL work or it WON’t but it’s a PATTERN.

fractal pattern on the Utilities
fractal pattern on the Utilities

 

4 hour chart showing formation of potential head and shoulders
4 hour chart showing formation of potential head and shoulders

 


 

 

 

April 05, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist.  I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish.  Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.

On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension.  That is bearish.  It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern.  Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades.  These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.

DJ Transports
DJ Transports

 

DJ Utilities
DJ Utilities

DJ Transports and Utilities updated

CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist.  I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish.  Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.

On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension.  That is bearish.  It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern.  Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades.  These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.

DJ Transports
DJ Transports

 

DJ Utilities
DJ Utilities

Dow Jones Utilities Long Term (1942) Price Pattern

CLIFF NOTES: major target appearing on Dow Jones Utilities at/around 573.  Definitely the stronger of the Dow components but 1) monthly divergence is presenting itself, 2) a possible 5 wave (monthly) count completing, 3) THE AB=CD pattern from the all time low in 1942 is a little higher …so, believe this is the most important index to watch over the next couple weeks.

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