the ratio “finally” appears to be attacking THE crucial pattern in this charts history …
We’ve been watching this ratio for over a year and never thought the BUY pattern would get tested. Certainly looks like that will happen.
This is THE level to watch for the market to continue its climb or correct … it’s that simple.
New York Stock Exchange Index – NYA – square the range from date of first trading – COMPLETE.
Well my friends, there we have it …
You know I have NO IDEA if this is BIG resistance OR not … but the fact is, that today, we SQUARED THE RANGE (for the first time ever) in the New York Stock Exchange Index.
When TIME equals PRICE – exactly – inflection points SHOULD occur. Today, on the NYA first trading day of January 3, 1966 which was 21823 calendar days ago (that was the upper ‘limit’ for squaring out the actual DAY of first trading) but, more importantly, we squared out the RANGE.
The inception price of the NYA was 50 … 21823-50 = 21773
So, if you think about it … we just hit the COMPLETE PERFECT SQUARE OUT …
Hang on folks …
Bart
The XLP/NYA ratio is approaching KEY resistance. If this resistance holds, then the market (s) should find support …
Well, looks like the market broke …LOL.
For support, our first target has appeared nicely.
Watch this level on the XLP/NYA … probably tomorrow or Monday the way things have been going.
Also, don’t forget about the 1×1 trendline from the all time low on the NYA … if bullish, this should offer some support …
More targets, albeit lower, are appearing …
I sense/believe (therefore probably wrong) that this rally will be a chance to fade and short again.
While I’m aware, obviously, of the tariffs I’m not paying attention to any of it. The patterns warned us all the way back in December.
Folks, we have two nice projections into what SHOULD be support … hate to say it, IF these patterns fail, then this could REALLY accelerate to the downside. Stay vigilant …
NYSE Index has hit a long term target. VERY important support upcoming.
Happy New Year – here we go 2025.
NYSE Index finally hit a long term target and, for now, appears to be reacting downward as expected resistance. Again, who knows if this is the making of a big top or a much needed pullback, either way, keep an eye on it as it could accelerate to the downside. One of the things I’ve noticed is the YEN is still not as strong as I thought it “should” be and, therefore, the equity has held up or even continued to advance higher …
NYSE Index has a VERY important support zone ID’d … let’s see what happens there. The red line is THE (CAPS FOR EMPHASIS) 1×1 trendline that it simply smoked (I was surprised at that one) so now, if POLARITY does work it ‘should’ offer a buy opportunity or a zone / area of support.
If it does not hold and it slices thru it … then I might go back and make sure I have the right trend line!
Have a GREAT New Year in 2025.
Bart
last post on current market conditions: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
so what do we do ..
me?
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
all probability …
chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.
the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)
note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?
here’s last weeks post on the Asian Open and the YEN. level worked pretty well and we rallied pretty much all week. the USD vs YEN should stay below the 108.46 level and/or 109.866. if (the big if) this sell signal works then it ‘should’ put pressure on the equities:
even w/ the FED cutting rates take note of the key (intraday sell signal) on the bonds … intraday/15 minute chart. we have higher targets but this is the ‘first’ sell signal from the lows back on 3/13.
here’s the potential mirror image foldback I’m monitoring on the NYSE Index. Pretty symmetrical pattern. note the key trend line … that’s a BIG DEAL.
