The YEN, across the board, respected the PATTERNS and strength for the YEN has happened across the board.
It’s fallen out of the ‘hype cycle’ since last July … I think its about to get in the news again.
Going to go a little esoteric on you but I want us all to understand the potential move that is going to occur.
BLUF: high probability of a year+ (?) move in the YEN – strength.
But, let’s take a step back to the magical 1.618.
The USDJPY topped at 161.8 or 1.618.
The all time high on the USDCAD? 1.618. Yup, no kidding.
So, as I was looking at the two charts I thought – that’s a very important number. What really caught my eye was the harmony and moves after the high at 1.618. Both fell, then came back right up into the .841-.886 retracement level.
Then, I though, I wonder if the SAME planetary vibration is present. See for yourself folks – Jupiter Helio squared the high – both times.
Now, put your eyes on the EURJPY – it’s the SAME picture that the USDCAD had (almost exactly) and that, folks, makes the probability of a big YEN MOVE coming, higher. Remember, it’s just a pattern … watch the cliff of the EURJPY peeps ….!!!
Here comes the Yen … its been VERY quiet over there so why not add a little volatility to the mix? SELL PATTERNS (Yen Strength) on the horizon.
Well, some weeks ago, the Yen is what cooked the entire thing off and don’t you think its time we add a little gas to the fire or are things hot enough? Well … guess what, PATTERNS again appearing across the board w/ the probability bet being YEN STRENGTH and the last time that occurred, we all knew what happened….
A picture paints a thousand words.
IF they “work” THEN the YEN strengthens and there might be some funds trapped again?
IF they “fail” THEN the YEN weakens and the band plays on and, frankly, we could be going parabolically higher. Which if your long is a GREAT ride, I have done it once in my life w/ Bitcoin and it was so HARD to cut the position at the top …but I did and for maybe one day I was like ” I need to get back in” but then it thumped down hard and I took my money out of bitcoin … like to chart it, but not trading that these days. Anyway, we could be going higher and a lot longer than people might think. GREAT … BUT … when it does crack, and it will, it will be a reckoning. I’d much rather have a good ole pullback are couple ‘scary the sky is falling CNBC measured move to BUY’ so, guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Here comes Mr Yen.
One last thing – the ONLY PATTERN which is not a PERFECT SELL is the USD vs JPY. Go figure … it’s still popping up into big resistance but all the other cross pairs – near perfect SELL PATTERNS. Probability says, they ‘should’ work …
NVDA, Semi-conductor Index and the New Taiwan dollar are at major inflection points.
NVDA earnings today …
Very interesting inflection … watch the New Taiwan Dollar as it looks to be inflecting. Historically, when the chart tops, the SOX takes off and goes higher.
We have a major target hit on the SOX and, what appears to be a valid 5 wave count.
Note the .786 and .618 price projection around 99-100 for support and if we blow thru that then the projection/1.27 around 79-81.
Here’s some targets for NVDA and the New Taiwan Dollar …
All the YEN crosses are approaching or have hit major resistance.
The Yen, across the board is hitting MAJOR LONG TERM TARGETS. While, ultimately, I believe the YEN will weaken more over the long run, the patterns are saying this YEN weakness should be hitting major resistance. Across the board – they are all hitting.
You might want to spend some time and go back over that post as it lays out – in pretty good detail – the potentialities w/in the USD complex. What I do know is we are hitting patterns – just like everything else – and the USD is a ‘big deal’ w/ the yards and yards and yards of currencies flowing throughout the world.
Back when I started to learn FX the statistic was that all the worlds exchanges trading everything/anything they can would have to operate continuously for 90 days straight to equal one day of volume on the currency markets. Can you imagine how big it is now? Yup .. when you jump in to the ring of Foreign Currency trading, as Mr. Joe Dinapoli told me once “in a cage w/ angry an hungry gorilla holding dynamite and …they dynamite is lit.” Not kidding …
So, FX and, therefore, the US Dollar Index are something to always keep in your scan.
The gameplan laid out w/in the last post above has been working its way out, almost exactly (like a roadmap one might say), and we are now at the demarcation of the bullish or bearish scenario.
You know what, have no idea which way its going to go but , believe it will be revealing itself very soon.
The “bearish” USD count is as shown. IF we go above the “big read 2” then I’ll have to alter the count, which I have no problem doing. I like this count because of the expanded flat. It’s one of my favorite PATTERNS to look for … the ‘tip off’ that we might have more probability of the expanded flat than anything else is that the ‘c’ wave is almost exactly equal to 1.618 ‘a’. That’s the classic relationship or guideline and the fact that it’s hard to NOT count the 3 waves down. Folks, that is sure looking (the red box) to be an expanded correction and therefore we just finished wave (2) of 3 and it’s time to expect a nice bit of dollar thrashing for the coming weeks/months.
If we blow thru the smaller red (2) then I’ll have to throw it all away and readjust, which I have no problem doing.
Here’s the monthly correction with all the SAME measured move (blue arrows) that always occur.
Well, we are hearing (once again) about the death of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and all that … that will probably happen but not just yet.
Either way, we have hit a VERY important support level on the USD. Measured moves make the world go around … we hit the measured move, the long term polarity trend line and a butterfly buy. Exactly.
So, little bit of a judgment day for the US Dollar. I find it hard to “see” that the down more is over simply based on “balance, form and proportion” BUT this could be a MAJOR low in the USD. Go figure …
I’ll wait for the first BUY PATTERN to emerge and see how the dollar reacts to that …
For now, watch the downtrend line from the old high .. a breakout (daily close) above that trend line will be a good hint that probability is shifting to a big dollar low.
For now – the patterns worked – but I’m going to watch and see how this plays out.
I’m currently LONG the USDJPY via an ETF so a strong dollar doesn’t necessarily fit the USDJPY narrative I’m working w/ .. even though the USDJPY is only 14% of the USD Index (majority weighted in EURO) it still has more weighting that the USDCHF and the GBPUSD. So, this is an interesting one – for sure.
The EURO is smacking against some SERIOUS trendline resistance that goes back to 2000 and 1985 (synthetically).
Remember, the Euro wasn’t adopted until January 1, 1999. So, the grey box below is the “synthetic” version of the EURO w/ the Deutschmark and other currencies providing a “continuation” into the time frame of Bretton Woods.
Either way, pay attention to the “orange measured moves” as that looks to be a pretty good “beat” for price action. IF the EURO blows thru these trendlines then the next target certainly looks to be 1.15.
On the podcast “Trendlines over Headlines” I discussed how measured moves can also be used as time components. Took a few seconds to show this concept by taking the Orange and Blue measured moves and flipped them to horizontal to create the time component of the measured moves.
Folks … look at the chart below. From the 2000 low, you can see that the “measured move in time” was pretty accurate. Now, mind you, this is a MONTHLY chart so we have some “time” for the cycle to hit. But, you can get it down to the day and the hour. Something I’m working on … not quite there, yet. But, I just “like” the measured moves ….use them.
PRICE = TIME. They are the same thing on a chart …
Here’s the creation of the Vesica Pisces for the EURO. For no other reason than to test it out, I’m going to use that first synthetic drop as the “seed”
Now, mind you, this isn’t something that you can really invest/trade off of but, for me at least, it’s a good exercise every now and then. 🙂
the Vesica Pisces is the manifestation for the creation of life and is where the numerical equivalents of the square roots of 1-5 come from … it’s inherently nested in Metatrons cube (Archangel Metatron is – according to legend – responsible for the geometry of creation. Mr. Robert Edward Grant has done AMAZING work showing how this happens and has recently PROVEN that the 3 pyramids were actually constructed at the same time w/ Metatrons cube in mind .. it’s amazing.
Anyway, the market vibrates and is harmonic and abides by natural law. Just like everything … our job is to find that “beat” and “vibration” and then give it a whirl. One last, note, you can move the vectors horizontal to show the TIME component. I would do that but .. need to go do some “work.”
Cheers and make it a great day.
Every PRICE move .. based on the Vesica Pisces. Believe it … or not.
Some extremely important “polarity” principles are being tested w/ the EUR.USD currency pair.
The principle is that “former support” will become resistance or vice versa. In his case, we have the low from 1985 and the low from 2000 showing former support that, now, SHOULD be stiff resistance.
If we power thru this level then the .618 retracement (note measured move orange arrow) looms as the next big resistance level.
5 waves complete … wave 1 = wave 5 (blue arrows) .. initial impulse wave natural log and/or square root 8 projection … ffrequency target (good stop out if it blows thru) …1.732 extension from of wave 3- 4 (note, wave 3 = 2.236 (square root of 5) ….
all this being said, this is 5 waves UP folks so the coming pullback is one we want to BUY … for now, that’s around (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree) in/around 1.05. we’ll just have to wait and see …
