Great Weekend Reading @seeitmarket – honored to be included
Posted on March 15, 2015 Leave a Comment
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=2b36d80f2295312b8303ab8ac&id=a78a8c3ee8
folks, bookmark this site … GREAT contributors!
Go CAPS vs BRUINS tonight …
Bart
the KIWI (New Zealand Dollar
Posted on March 14, 2015 Leave a Comment
I’ve been watching this set up for a while … if your a currency trader, this has the real potential to be a powerful trade going LONG KIWI vs the “mighty” USD. Some things to consider:
- the KIWI is not part of the US Dollar Index.
- So, while the dollar index explodes …it really doesn’t have anything to do w/ the INDEX of the US Dollar.
- In fact, you’ll see that the KIWI has yet to even retrace .382 of the entire 2000-2011 advance.
- Compare that to the USD vs EURO/Pound/Aussie/Loonie/Yen and you’ll understand that it’s showing remarkable strength.
- Take note, however, a the potential EPIC double top in place. I am very aware of that but right now, w/ the dollar index being so very overbought and at an extreme in sentiment, I expect (over the coming days) for the dollar to be sold on a broad basis. Hence, KIWI to rise against the dollar …
- My take is we have a FLAT correction completing and if I can count 5 clear waves down then we might have bottomed …
- To the charts:
Long Term Monthly KIWI vs USD:
Weekly KIWI vs USD:
Daily KIWI vs USD
Keep this one on your radar screen ….
Bart
US Dollar Index
Posted on March 14, 2015 Leave a Comment
Folks, this one has been tough and has exceeded any of my previous projections for a pull back. Is it parabolic? Maybe? Kind of? But it is very overbought – ok I’m going to say it – EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT and NEVER in the history of the index has there been this level of BULLISH SENTIMENT. You can’t go wrong BUYING DOLLARS. So, for me that means to watch out …
Here’s my latest attempt at finding a pattern to stop this in it’s tracks … I have NOT gone long the EURO but have gone w/ my gut each time a level has held for a bit but the thrust and “feel” and YES “feel” has a lot to do w/ it just haven’t been there …
So, we’ll keep trying but I STILL BELIEVE that being LONG DOLLARS is the wrong side of this trade for now … a nice multimonth pullback and it will take off again. But for now – well – I’ll stand aside ..
PARABOLIC MOVES ALWAYS END IN A VERY SWIFT AND DEVASTATING MOVE OPPOSITE HOW IT GOT THERE …
Make it a great weekend and happy PI day!
Picture Paints a Thousand Words ..
Posted on March 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
My mentor and friend Larry Pesavento (www.tradingtutor.com) sent this out on Friday night. Please, take a look.
For me to comment on this would inject a bias. So I’m not. I’m just going to post the picture and allow you to evaluate this as you see fit.
Enjoy.
Silver Roadmap Continued – getting tricky
Posted on March 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
if you go to @seeitmarket and also “search” Silver on this site you’ll see we have been watching inflections at 8/0z and then 48 oz and, most recently, the low that came into 14/oz.
conversation has been around a “big low” at 14 and potential new highs OR a corrective bounce. at this point in the game, it’s still an uncertain aspect of the Silver move BUT the odds are leaning to the side of the “correction” fence.
I’ll present three scenario’s for Silver. Right now, it appears the A-B-C correction is the most favorable to monitor …
#1: CORRECTION: If you look at the most recent high of 18.40 you’ll see it made that high from 14 in a corrective 3 wave bounce. In “counting waves” the correction that is occurring from 18.40 high is not ALLOWED (it’s a rule) to go below wave 1. (It has done that as the HIGH for wave 1 would have been 17.20.) So the current move can be counted as B w/ 5 wave C to begin here or a little lower. If we are in a flat type of correction prices could go all the way back down to the low or a little lower BUT ultimately we should feel confident that a 5 wave move UP will be occurring.
#2: BULLISH MOVE: in this case, note the slight change in the count. What we can safely say is that for this count to be valid prices can NOT go below the red line. IF they do THEN it’s apparent we are in the A-B-C correction. the count below is EXTREMELY BULLISH in that we’re making the case that this wave is subdividing and is going to be very strong. Prices basically need to hold right here and go up w/ a vengeance. Odds are not favorable for that right now. We will see ….
#3: BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH: I don’t like this, but I have to show it simply because the COUNT coming into the 14/oz low was pretty spot -on so the TIME of the correction is, simply, not in line w/ that count. Additionally, note the THRUST up out of the 14/oz level. But, alas, I need to show it.
First off – note on the daily w/ do away w/ the thesis that it was a triangle that proceeded the 14/oz low. (Editors comment (me): folks that triangle was a PERFECT a-b-c-d-e so it’s hard for me to show “no triangle” but need to show to be objective) Now, note the wave structure which subdivides and doesn’t break any RULES. This forecasts another “new” low before move UP in earnest.
Out of the 3 options present I lean toward #2, then #1 and then, finally, #3.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Make it a GREAT weekend.
Bart
Square Roots and $BABA
Posted on March 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
I had the chance to “chat” w/ JC today and was really watching the EUR vs AUD set up and he mentioned – $BABA. Full disclosure – I am not long this security as it really hasn’t been on my radar screen. I have been monitoring it w/ the correlation to YAHOO which had come down into my target zone after this post: http://www.seeitmarket.com/yahoo-stock-pullback-yhoo-price-targets-watch-14035/ . I did notice the bounce in YHOO around my target level.
But this is simply about square roots and, as a technician, one must seriously pay attention to them … period.
I took a quick look at $BABA and my “eye” is trained to see the classic AB=CD/thunderbolt pattern and I labeled it. Then I ALWAYS check out the square root of the high and … well take a look at the chart.
Square root targets ON TOP OF “normal” projection techniques and/or “typical” Fibonacci retracement levels are “wonders to behold”
Enjoy …
One last … in order to travel one full cycle around the Square of Nine you do the following:
- Take square root of a number
- SUBTRACT or ADD 2 (this pushes you around the wheel)
- Resquare that number .. you have now completed one full rotation around the number.
- If you want you can do Square Root +/- 1.618 …
- And, since you’ve read this far the Square of Nine is a square root calculator but it’s also a planetary projection technique. TILT … well folks that’s what the Great Pyramids did – to a major degree. So, take the square root of a number and then PROJECT a planet that many DEGREES and watch what happens. Just saying …
Anyway – here’s the chart.
- where are the moving averages, oscillators, bollinger bands, clouds and blahh blahh ….?
Latest on @seeitmarket where $GRPO might bounce
Posted on March 3, 2015 Leave a Comment
@seeitmarket for Jan and Feb
Posted on February 27, 2015 Leave a Comment
loyal readers … have been enjoying working w/ Andy at @seeitmarket.
http://www.seeitmarket.com/author/james-bartelloni/
some great stuff going on over there ….
will update the bond picture this weekend.
Bart
Euro vs Great British Pound
Posted on February 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
great mathematical and harmonic set up here ….
see the chart.
also, if you like Elliott wave corrective patterns sure looks like a a-b-c — X — a-b-c is finishing.
watch for strength.
the bladder of the fish and, well, Soybeans
Posted on February 13, 2015 Leave a Comment
had a “google hangout” w/ JC today and we zipped thru, easily, 6 different asset classes from stocks, commodities, single stocks and currencies in roughly 10 minutes.
“check this out – boom boom boom” and “blah blah blah” – and we were done.
question .. how long do you think it would take non-chartists? hours …? just saying.
anyway, we took at look at long term soybeans and what we need to focus on is the POWER of a MEASURED MOVE on a long term chart. in the chart below you’ll see blue and orange arrows. they represent the MAXIMUM correction of Soybeans on this 40 year old chart.
folks, when you have a LONG TERM measured move that sits right on a .618 retracement – you have high probability. If you don’t believe me … just look at the chart.
every major correction has either been a blue or orange arrow …
measured moves of Soybeans
W H Y ?
the Vesica Piscis of course (the bladder of the fish)
Vesica Pisces
so, look folks, you can believe me or not … but – HONESTLY – I chose the black dashed move to being the construction of the Vesica Pisces for this long term soybean chart. And, because I believe in my edge – and w/ full disclosure I had NEVER done this for Soybeans I constructed the VP from that one corrective move from 1988-1991.
as you can see below I built the picture above and then ….. use sacred geometry to measure the fractals of the square roots of 2,3,4,5 which are represented by pink/black/blue/orange arrows and then transposed them to PRICE in the lower right hand corner.
and, guess what … see that black arrow? THAT is what created the measured moves above … and, additionally, as you can see, I used the orange arrow from the low in 1999 to the EXACT high in 2012.
now, believe it or not, you can use any major swing .. they are all related from a proportions and fractal point of view. I trusted my eye and looked at where this correction was occurring and trusted my “hunch” that this was the right vector to use as the seed.
if you get the chance … use the vectors as time. (hint hint)
the bladder of the fish and the Vesica Pisces
SPOILER ALERT:
The mathematical ratio of the width of the vesica piscis to its height is the square root of 3, or approximately 1.7320508… (since if straight lines are drawn connecting the centers of the two circles with each other and with the two points where the circles intersect, two equilateral triangles join along an edge). The ratios 265:153 = 1.7320261… and 1351:780 = 1.7320513… are two of a series of approximations to this value, each with the property that no better approximation can be obtained with smaller whole numbers.
21:11 Simon Peter went up and drew the net to land, full of large fish, a hundred and fifty-three and although there were so many, the net was not torn.
Bart's Charts 