$ITB Home Construction Index – SELL PATTERN complete
Posted on June 28, 2015 Leave a Comment
Home Construction ETF WEEKLY
Daily GARTLEY SELL pattern on Home Cosntruction index
also, note how correlated the $ITB is with $XLF.
did a blog post for @seeitmarket on the financials: http://www.seeitmarket.com/whats-next-for-the-financial-sector-etf-xlf-14447/
watch this pattern – closely.
good weekend to you.
B
revisiting the XLP/SPX ratio … AGAIN in June 2015
Posted on June 27, 2015 1 Comment
time for another update … take note, HIGHER LOWS in the ratio and it bounced off the .786 retracement w/ a nice MONTHLY hammer. It sure appears this ratio is about to go up, which should put pressure on the stock market to move higher.
this has taken a LONG time to itself out ….
potential count for the ratio – note the higher bottoms since 2009.
inflection points in the ratio correspond to movements i the VIX. NOTE THE HIGHER BOTTOMS IN THE VIX
one last, below, showing the importance of this ratio and the monstrous divergence present.
- w/ the Equity market soaring to new highs the RATIO should have been falling like a stone. IT HAS NOT….again, in fact, it has made higher lows. This is a very important sector rotation development that needs to be paid attention to closely. It WILL resolve itself.
EVERY HIGH and LOW in the equity market has corresponded to an inflection in the ratio….
folks, bringing this up, again, because this divergence is MONSTROUS.
in order to show the divergence and how something is “not quite right in toon town” I’ve actually inverted the ratio to show the S&P 500 on top this time. t
the only reason is it shows the amazing divergence present .. when you look at the chart below notice the perfect synchronicity between the S&P500 and the S&P500/XLP. but notice around 2011, the dance breaks up … that’s a big deal to me and while it’s true you obviously can’t fight the fed and it’s different this time what I believe it tells us is the “smart money” has stayed in staples or haven’t jumped into this amazing bull market as much as anyone thinks.
notice the divergence!
now, here’s the same ratio but this time we have the STAPLES has the numerator … note, when this ratio BOTTOMS the S&P 500 TOPS and when this ratio TOPS the S&P 500 bottoms. EXACTLY … the theory is the institutions move in/out of “defensive” names during times of volatility so we expect the relative strength of the XLP’s to increase during bear markets / sell-offs (the ratio goes up) and decrease during bull markets/rallies (the ratio goes down)
the ratio HAS NOT GONE DOWN during the past 2 year rally phase … tells me the institutions have kept their powder dry.
XLP / SPX – note divergence and NO NEW LOWS on the ration ….
just a matter of TIME …
DBA – be patient, now let’s follow up.
Posted on June 26, 2015 Leave a Comment
Amazing that it’s been a YEAR exactly since we took a look at the agriculture sector. The post below was from 06/26/2014. Based on the price action of DBA the past couple days and the action of the beans, wheat and corn believe it’s time to give DBA a shot. Would stop out w/ a close below 21.50.
Happy hunting … man this took a long time to set up.
DBA Weekly
DBA / SPY relative strength
CLIFF NOTES: Corn and Wheat have hit their targets. Would still see risk below the .841 retrace on Wheat but believe these patterns are complete. Need to wait a little while longer on Soybeans …
Charts ..
Soybeans Continuous
Wheat Continuous
Corn Continuous
the commodity markets are ROCKING AND ROLLING w/ regards to Corn, Soybeans and Wheat ….
so, I don’t know ANYTHING about the inner workings of the grain market but I do know MEASURED MOVES and look at some of the beauties on Corn, Wheat, Soybeans. If we look a the “money manager” bets in the middle of the chart above it appears that NO ONE is bearish? Also, is the bushels projection that great? anyway, w/ extreme bearishness and this quote:
“There’s just no real stress, hot [weather] coming along, so we’re going to blast prices down,” said Jack Scoville,
Vice president at brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Most areas are in really good shape.”
sure looks like a BUY opportunity. But, let’s don’t get cray cray here … we have a target area of support but look at what happened the last time we had a measured move like this … the darn thing bounced around for 3 months. so, let’s let the market prove to us if this is support. then, just wait for that magical weekly or daily pullback (it WILL happen) and then pounce. Folks, this could take months for the correct entry …we’ll revisit these in a couple weeks.
CORN continuous contract MONTHLY
WHEAT continuous contract MONTHLY
SOYBEAN continuous contract MONTHLY
DBA
here is a quick look at the relative strength ratio between DBA/SPY. obviously, quite the thumping here BUT if you look you can see 5 waves down. if we break the swing low (sure looks like it’s going to happen) then we’ll go to that lower target I believe.
DBA/ SPY relative strength ratio
so, why is this important …? well, let’s take the CORN ETF and overlay it on the ratio. As you can see … when this ratio bounces so does corn (make sense) so we will look for some rotation into the agriculture market if/when the equities lose there luster.
Still the most important chart out there …
Posted on June 9, 2015 Leave a Comment
What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?
Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:
China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
watch this … closely.
enjoying the amazing work @seeitmarket
Posted on June 2, 2015 Leave a Comment
Did some work on Goldman Sachs …
enjoy and look forward to your feedback!
Bart
TLT post w/ @seeitmarket
Posted on May 18, 2015 Leave a Comment
Please follow this link to take a look at a potential TLT play … http://www.seeitmarket.com/20-year-treasury-bond-tlt-nearing-price-support-target-14375/
Nike updated … target coming into play
Posted on May 17, 2015 Leave a Comment
Below is a post that I did from November 2014 roughly 7 months ago.
Targets for NIKE are coming into play.
Hope your having a great weekend.
NIKE Monthly Updated
I’ve shown this technique, successfully, on the parabolic run in IBB, AAPL and others. I’m not going to repeat it here – search on this website for IBB or AAPL and Sir Isaac Newton and the APPLE falling from the tree. But what I’m going to do is go chart by chart to TRY and figure out when the Tv=0 (Terminal Velocity) and it falls like a rock, literally. These types of charts scare me …
- I have NEVER seen a parabolic rise that doesn’t swiftly lose 20,30,40,50 % of it’s value .. never.
- I have NEVER done this exercise on Nike (NKE) Fact is I like Nike, just bought a pair of running shoes the other day and they employ my daughter at the local outlet mall. But, shoving that all aside – it’s parabolic and that’s just not good.
1. Chart of NKE
- note, used the “line chart” so I could fit the history of the stock into the screen and scaled it down considerably. using a line chart helps you.
2. Pick 3 points, that make sense to the eye, and calculate a circle from those 3 points like the dude did in the video link below
- Use this link from geometry we learned in elementary school: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUgMOzwCBEE
- Or “GOOGLE” – “how to make a circle from three points …
3. Here’s the picture w/ the gravity center and the arc shown. I don’t like it, you’ll see why. So have we done something wrong? No, just not using the right grid. Do you see how the all time lows did their own “mini” parabolic run back in 1997? So, decided to shift up the low horizontal grid line to the “next” low and … look two charts lower. Please pay attention to the annotations on the chart.
Note, by using the all time low to extract the radius from the gravity center it was not a good fit to the eye or thru geometry. Scratch this one …
this grid workds
4. Now, we need to catch the highlighted area w/ an expansion of our 1.0 arc. This expansion is not arbitrary .. it will be derived from sacred geometry ratios, equal octave scale of music and Fibonacci. When we catch this point we then look at the parabolic extreme point at 3 o’clock on the arc.
what you’ll see is I used the musical ratios: 1.12248/1.1892/1.2592.
the green ratio could be it … so what else can we try?
5. Elliott Wave perhaps but in log scale …because that allows us to see long term waves better, that’s and, also, take it out a scale (monthly) to remove most if not all of the noise.
so looks like a nice 3 is in progress perhaps … I’m having a tough time counting the squiggles on this last wave and if that happens I simply WAIT for a form/proportion to show up. Remember, it’s PARABOLIC right now so it is hard to count …but in the context of being on the right side of the market … would definitely look to take profits at the first sign of a weekly signal reversal candle. so, if it’s hard to count then, perhaps go back to the normal scale?
6. How about bearish divergence on ALL of the DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY? (remember his is real time so I’m not sure if it is present or not)
It’s kind of present but not screaming at me ….
7. take a look at volume – it’s holding in there but note the steep drop off the last 4-6 weeks. hmmmmm
8. one last … threw a 50 day simple moving average on their to look for “reversion to the mean” – basically are we at an extreme from the median of the 50 day? YES ….
so, in conclusion, we are parabolic and another 10% move up – really quickly – is not out of the question. Believe the first hint of a SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE (weekly) would be time to take profits and, remember this is 3 of 5 (if my count is correct) so I will be looking to BUY NKE after the inevitable pull back in any parabolic.
questions to me.
Bart
