Silver Roadmap Continued – getting tricky

if you go to @seeitmarket and also “search” Silver on this site you’ll see we have been watching inflections at 8/0z and then 48 oz and, most recently, the low that came into 14/oz.

conversation has been around a “big low” at 14 and potential new highs OR a corrective bounce.  at this point in the game, it’s still an uncertain aspect of the Silver move BUT the odds are leaning to the side of the “correction” fence.

I’ll present three scenario’s for Silver.  Right now, it appears the A-B-C correction is the most favorable to monitor …

#1: CORRECTION: If you look at the most recent high of 18.40 you’ll see it made that high from 14 in a corrective 3 wave bounce.  In “counting waves” the correction that is occurring from 18.40 high is not ALLOWED (it’s a rule) to go below wave 1.  (It has done that as the HIGH for wave 1 would have been 17.20.) So the current move can be counted as B w/ 5 wave C to begin here or a little lower.  If we are in a flat type of correction prices could go all the way back down to the low or a little lower BUT ultimately we should feel confident that a 5 wave move UP will be occurring.

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#2: BULLISH MOVE: in this case, note the slight change in the count.  What we can safely say is that for this count to be valid prices can NOT go below the red line. IF they do THEN it’s apparent we are in the A-B-C correction.  the count below is EXTREMELY BULLISH in that we’re making the case that this wave is subdividing and is going to be very strong.  Prices basically need to hold right here and go up w/ a vengeance.  Odds are not favorable for that right now.  We will see ….

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#3: BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH: I don’t like this, but I have to show it simply because the COUNT coming into the 14/oz low was pretty spot -on so the TIME of the correction is, simply, not in line w/ that count.  Additionally, note the THRUST up out of the 14/oz level.  But, alas, I need to show it.

First off – note on the daily w/ do away w/ the thesis that it was a triangle that proceeded the 14/oz low.  (Editors comment (me): folks that triangle was a PERFECT a-b-c-d-e so it’s hard for me to show “no triangle” but need to show to be objective) Now, note the wave structure which subdivides and doesn’t break any RULES.  This forecasts another “new” low before move UP in earnest.

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Out of the 3 options present I lean toward #2, then #1 and then, finally, #3.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Make it a GREAT weekend.

Bart

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