loyal readers … have been enjoying working w/ Andy at @seeitmarket.
http://www.seeitmarket.com/author/james-bartelloni/
some great stuff going on over there ….
will update the bond picture this weekend.
Bart
Euro vs Great British Pound
great mathematical and harmonic set up here ….
see the chart.
also, if you like Elliott wave corrective patterns sure looks like a a-b-c — X — a-b-c is finishing.
watch for strength.
the bladder of the fish and, well, Soybeans
had a “google hangout” w/ JC today and we zipped thru, easily, 6 different asset classes from stocks, commodities, single stocks and currencies in roughly 10 minutes.
“check this out – boom boom boom” and “blah blah blah” – and we were done.
question .. how long do you think it would take non-chartists? hours …? just saying.
anyway, we took at look at long term soybeans and what we need to focus on is the POWER of a MEASURED MOVE on a long term chart. in the chart below you’ll see blue and orange arrows. they represent the MAXIMUM correction of Soybeans on this 40 year old chart.
folks, when you have a LONG TERM measured move that sits right on a .618 retracement – you have high probability. If you don’t believe me … just look at the chart.
every major correction has either been a blue or orange arrow …
W H Y ?
the Vesica Piscis of course (the bladder of the fish)
so, look folks, you can believe me or not … but – HONESTLY – I chose the black dashed move to being the construction of the Vesica Pisces for this long term soybean chart. And, because I believe in my edge – and w/ full disclosure I had NEVER done this for Soybeans I constructed the VP from that one corrective move from 1988-1991.
as you can see below I built the picture above and then ….. use sacred geometry to measure the fractals of the square roots of 2,3,4,5 which are represented by pink/black/blue/orange arrows and then transposed them to PRICE in the lower right hand corner.
and, guess what … see that black arrow? THAT is what created the measured moves above … and, additionally, as you can see, I used the orange arrow from the low in 1999 to the EXACT high in 2012.
now, believe it or not, you can use any major swing .. they are all related from a proportions and fractal point of view. I trusted my eye and looked at where this correction was occurring and trusted my “hunch” that this was the right vector to use as the seed.
if you get the chance … use the vectors as time. (hint hint)
SPOILER ALERT:
The mathematical ratio of the width of the vesica piscis to its height is the square root of 3, or approximately 1.7320508… (since if straight lines are drawn connecting the centers of the two circles with each other and with the two points where the circles intersect, two equilateral triangles join along an edge). The ratios 265:153 = 1.7320261… and 1351:780 = 1.7320513… are two of a series of approximations to this value, each with the property that no better approximation can be obtained with smaller whole numbers.
21:11 Simon Peter went up and drew the net to land, full of large fish, a hundred and fifty-three and although there were so many, the net was not torn.
BIDU follow up
was on some quick travel today and saw the “twitter-verse” (read universe) rocking and rolling about BIDU. I remembered that I had done a post in November 2014 about Twitter and — believe it or not in March 2014 (almost a year ago). In March, as soon as we made the new high from July 2011 I was starting to look for a 5th wave. As you can see below, in March that was too early. Now, it did hit the target and back off roughly 30% but, ultimately, it kept plugging upward.
So, back to the drawing board, and per below came up w/ 250 as the next target. That one has held – for now – and just looked at the “after market” and she sold off roughly 10% and is trading at 195 bucks.
The “targets” that are derived are pretty good … the waves are pretty good but folks, it’s all probability. the face that we are down to 195 a year later doesn’t surprise me and the fact that 250 held (to the cent) per the work below doesn’t surprise me. And, one last, guess what? The fact that 250 got rolled over to the upside wouldn’t have surprise me either …
PICK your edge … fundamentals, basic technical analysis using moving average and oscillator stuff, flip a coin, music … it doesn’t matter. All your edge is going to give you is a higher probability of something happening than not happening … So, if it works, great. If it doesn’t, great.
Just decide how much your going to lose and that’s all that matters …
Rock on dudes and dudettes!
Bart
OBTW – check this out.
250 high
Square root: 15.81
Square root – 2 = 13.811
(13.811)^2 = 190.75
please take a look at the chart …you can’t make this shit up.
11/11/2014
was too early on this count, as you can see below. Now, we are approaching some very stiff resistance as shown. another target is 295. all that being said, still believe we are in the 5th wave advance here ….
03/31/2014
CLIFF NOTES: very strong probability that a 5 wave advance is complete on BIDU
Here’s the last look at BIDU working on a 188 target for wave 5: http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/21/the-ray-charles-count-on-bidu/
Updated chart:
OK, one more on the 10 year …
wanted to show you a “quick look” at the ratio of HYG / IEF. HYG is an ETF for Corporate Bonds….when we use ratio analysis we look for one security strengthening over another. In this case, when the ratio goes down the HYG is underperforming the IEF (ten year ETF) and vice versa.
note, the second chart is showing what happens to the 10 year yield when the ratio bottoms … yields go up.
So, if ratio bottomed THEN yields to go higher.
Stay tuned ..
the key to the Ten Year Treasury Yield
I’ve highlighted an area w/ a blue rectangle.
Folks, that’s 5 waves up so – ultimately we need another 5 wave move up to occur.
I think that’s in work as of the close last week and have projected ten year yields to spike to 3.6-4.0 for now.
Going to be interesting to watch …
VIX Triangle Complete? ($vix)
in Elliott Wave theory a triangle occurs in 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.
a case can be made that the VIX completed the final (e) wave of a triangle on last Friday.
this week is going to be crucial w/ so many patterns pointing to the downside …
geometry of the midcaps ($MDY)
I like the tops and bottoms of circles … they are pretty powerful and not often used in the technical analysis community. the reason they work is another subject for another time. if you would like to know a little bit about their formation and their cyclical (price and time) characteristics hit me on email.
take a look at the mid-caps … perfect hit on Friday of the “top of a circle” and on a daily chart we had 3 very powerful sell patterns hitting at the same time.
watch this for weakness … if it let’s loose and busts thru the to the other side higher then let it breathe for a while and it will come back to 270 for the opportune time to get long.
in the meantime … let’s see if the top of the circle holds, or not.
I’m watching 4 things …
PATTERNS on the ES, $NYA, Banking Index and Yen to tell me if we break out to new highs.
- Banks are rolling. That’s bullish – get thru level shown then we should surge higher
- Yen, after an entire 6 weeks of doing nothing – EXPLODED. 119.80 line in the sand
- ES “basic” AB=CD complete.
- NYA shows a possible count calling for lower
Close today will rank in the “big deal” category in my very humbled opion.
Just a pattern guy … no idea what the jobs report, or rates, or any of that “stuff” means …
IF you do ONE thing please WATCH this video …
Larry Pesavento (www.tradingtutor.com) is not only a mentor but a true friend and guiding example of integrity, passion and truth in the financial markets. He’s 75 (acts like he’s 16) and has made his living trading the markets for 50+ years. It’s an extreme honor to call him a friend.
SPOILER ALERT: over the years he called my family and left a message on the answering machine playing Santa for my kids … he’s that kind of a guy.
He’s worked w/ me around the MENTAL aspects of trading and working thru losses and a drawdown that I had in my CTA which had not occurred after 7 years of positive trading year over year.
Bottom line – when he speaks I listen. We skyped tonight after the football game about the Chinese Yuan, Silver and being above ground and I asked him permission to post a video that he put out this weekend which I think was extremely important. Of course he agreed because I truly believe he cares for all of us.
Here’s the deal – I full admit I went bearish in 2012. Why? Well, it’s in this video – my thinking was not based on patterns but on an emotion of “how could they surpass the debt from 2007 after that chaos?” I “think” it made sense BUT as anyone can see – the market has relentlessly marched upward and onward.
If you read this blog, you know I really don’t know anything about fundamentals. I am proud to say I am a pure play chartist and, quite frankly, pretty darn good at it. (Just ask Larry … :)) So, this video that Larry put out speaks to me … I don’t know “when” we get thumped but I am pretty confident that it’s going to happen sometime in our lifetime and it’s going to be RELENTLESS and BRUTAL and knock the teeth out of the financial landscape as we know it.
So … use a stop.
ENJOY and to Larry – my mentor and friend – thanks.
Bart