Tag: ZB #F

Bond Complex – September 5, 2024

Bond complex coming into a key inflection point …

Well, I fully admit my mistakes on this blog. Yes, went long around 14 on TBT and now, wondering if “this was just a correction and we go back to ZIRP. ” Sure looks like TBT is about to fall off the proverbial cliff and w/ that we’ll get a rate cut and then bonds will go higher and blah blah. Good thing our interest payment on our debt isn’t crushing still ….hmmm, about that! 🙂

anyhoo … my goal has been to get into a position at what I ‘think’ (that might be the problem) and ride the entire WAVE. As you may or may not know I am a surfer and enjoy being on the water riding, what I call, echoes of the primordial big bang thru the medium of water and a surfboard. Wow … folks, you see, the water isn’t moving … it’s the PULSE of the ENERGY flowing thru the water.

so, we are close to judgement time and it’s going to close out on my head (been there done that) or have I picked the right line (you literally maneuver the surfboard to match a line that will encompass the FORM, PROPORTION and BALANCE (sound like Elliott Wave Theory?) of that wave so you can keep making sections and ride the wave up and down and up and down. It’s zen.

we can see the H+S neck line we are about to crack thru (or we should see them) and take note of the .618 price projection is precisely causing the support (hmmm – note, don’t forget, always know where the .618 price projection is) and then we go lower into a small unfilled gap on the .618 but finish a near perfect BUY pattern @23.30. Little lower is the .786 and then, well, perhaps this was an a-b-c correction and another low to be made.

Maybe I’ll just put my stop a little below the .786.

I’m no fundamentalist – fully admit it.

It just looks like way way back at the top I said this could be the top for a few decades as it sure looked like 5 waves UP from the 1982 low on bonds. So … one of these levels will hold – and start back up – which means rate increases over time.

Who knows …

now, objectively speaking, if we look at the 10 year interest rate, it really hasn’t budged that much has it? and, if we use Mr. Measured Move we can see that it does have some higher targets.

Here’s a look at interest rates

So, either way we look at it, we are coming to a very important inflection point according to the patterns.

Which way will they go?

B

TLT – February 2, 2024

For now, I see this as an A-B-C correction w/ a move down occurring which should be BOUGHT to take up into the mid 100’s – for now.

I say for now because I’m a little “stung” (not that bad but just “stunned” ) I didn’t see the size of the rally in equities. I admit it, I was too stuck into “another leg down” (which I wanted to BUY OBTW) but that “one more leg down” never came … and a parabolic blow off had occurred. Nailed the October low but … missed the move.

So, just like I feel comfortable stocks are setting up for a BIG MOVE down (now or soon’ish) I feel pretty good that the low we made was the end of a 5 count move. If not, then we finsihed a 3 down around 84 and we have another move down below 84. Who knows …

But, given that I am “correct” I have put realistic target up there because, in this current environment, the TLT could go all the way up to 180 and STILL be against the “trend” which – I believe started w/ the high back a couple years ago.

And that, for me, is the key … that was a huge thumping and, the ‘look and feel’, tells me this isn’t going to be ‘easy’ or ‘cut and dry’ – can you President Biden enjoying the FED “raising rates” during and election year? Or, certainly would love for him to “cut rates” and how in the world , seriously, is he going to do that …?

So, this was a GREAT run down in TLT -in which I played LONG TBT and still long and hold a position – but from a “time” perspective I just think we need more TIME so I’m looking to BUY TLT after I see what happens at 91.18.

Bonds – July 30, 2023

sounds crazy, but sure looks like bonds are going to break the big support that’s been holding em’ up and, frankly, target the blue zone as shown in the below charts. Ummmm, ouch. Right? If my count is wrong, then we will go up and do another leg to finish the a-b-c corrective move BUT either way, I feel pretty good w/ the count from the “big” top above perspective so we “should” be going down in bond prices regardless of the news and then we find some pretty big support and a BIG WAVE 2 or B Wave will get everyone thinking “inflation is over” and the rates are GOING DOWN and yeah team … but, that’s just gonna be the wave 2 or the B wave … after that is the “ouch” 3rd or C wave and rates are gonna explode …

Here’s the TLT (I AM LONG TBT) look that could, realistically, get targeted over the long term. I know, hard to believe … just calling it like I see it.

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

https://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-update-long-duration-treasury-bonds-deeply-oversold-16360/

update on TLT and Bonds over @seeitmarket updated

1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

update on TLT and Bonds over @seeitmarket

sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

the key to the Ten Year Treasury Yield

I’ve highlighted an area w/ a blue rectangle.

Folks, that’s 5 waves up so – ultimately we need another 5 wave move up to occur.

I think that’s in work as of the close last week and have projected ten year yields to spike to 3.6-4.0 for now.

Going to be interesting to watch …

Main20150209212912
notice the 5 wave move UP … need another 5 wave move up. Believe that’s happening right now

 

Fixed Income …at the inflection point

CLIFF NOTES: target hit on the long bond, last target hit on TBT, RYJUX hitting some key support.  No doubt the move up from the neckline and multi month consolidation is a big deal and now we’ll see if the neckline is attacked as we are suggesting. Note, it already came down and bounced off the neckline for a very nice LONG Bond opportunity.  W/ this many patterns completing there is, of course 1 of 2 things that are going to occur … THEY WORK or DO NOT WORK.

CLIFF NOTES 2: we showed this chart before but note the FRACTAL that was present in the LONG BOND is EXACTLY the same as 10/1987. Not making any crazy crash forecasts just bringing it up that the PATTERN was EXACT.

Watch these levels very very closely ….

Main20140516085418 Main20140516085803 Main20140516085846 Main20140516090616 Main20140516090900 Main20140516091113

gameplan for the long bond structure …

CLIFF NOTES: if you look at the chart below, you will see an inverse head and shoulders pattern that had it’s genesis almost a year go – 07/2013.  Just recently (the past 3 trading days) we have broken from this neckline ….price on the bonds should start up.  Here’s the gameplan — expect the 137 28 level to hold as resistance.  (It’s a butterfly sell pattern) and then price should come down to the neckline and here is where we really see the battle between the bulls and bears.  All things being equal, the standard gameplan is to trade the return to the neckline and therefore go LONG in/around the 134-135 level.  However, if the rates are really going to rise, then this neckline will be defeated and  we’ll go thru the black line to the downside.  This is the gameplan …

 

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Fixed Income Pattern and October 1987

there are some very interesting things to point out regarding fixed income tonight …

in the chart below note the following:

  • a swing low has never been broken in this bull market run that started 33 years ago.  they are shown by the dashed green lines
  • we think a MAJOR top is at hand in the 153 area // this bounce is expected.
  • the blue triangle represents the same corrective move that we just completed in both PRICE and TIME.  NOTE — this same correction happened before in October 1987.  Also note, there was no panic crash in the bonds.  I’m not implying the market will crash – I’m saying the exact same PATTERN appeared and we have completed the exact same PATTERN.
  • the largest corrective move in fixed income occurred during the 2008-2009 panic.  the magnitude of that correction takes us to 123-124 if we do it again.
  • SUMMARY: still believe a major top is at hand//breaking a swing low will confirm//bounce occurring now is expected

30 year bond continuous contract
30 year bond continuous contract

next chart is the 10 year treasury yield monthly chart from 1995-2014. Data is not as good as the long bond, but we also have some very interesting developments.

10 year yield
10 year yield

  • note the UP orange arrow w/ the DOWN red arrow and how these arrows are overlaid by a blue triangle.  the 5 wave sequence UP from the low at 1.4 is equal to the orange arrow UP so the PATTERN is the same so a correction down to the red arrow level would be an opportune time to BUY rates.
  • the blue arrows show the largest move up by the interest rate structure shown …to complete that same move again will take rates to 4.14% and out of the channel which is defined by resistance in/around 3-3.5%.
  • SUMMARY: believe a major low was made, we have just finished wave 1 of 5 and currently working thru a 3 wave corrective sequence.  Would be looking to BUY after the corrective pattern is complete.

next chart is the Montly 30 day Federal Funds Futures … basically, this is what traders think w/ regard short term interest rates and the Fed’s policy from month/month.

30 day fed fund futures
30 day fed fund futures

  • NOTE: rates found resistance right at the .786 retracement.  Again, the rates stopped going UP and found resistance at .786 retracement.  did the fundamentals have anything to do w/ it or not?
  • IF we continue the projection it goes above 100. That’s negative interest rates.  Don’t think that will happen … (?) BUT for all intensive purposes, it can’t go any higher.  It really hasn’t budged, which makes sense.  So, if you don’t like playing the LONG side of RATES down here at these levels THEN monitor the Fed Funds for a breakdown.  Believe it will be a big move to the downside, ultimately, but will be a nice confirmation of a generational low in interest rates has had it’s day and the “trade of our lifetime” to go LONG RATES is at hand.

make it a great weekend and watch the levels on the long bond AND the fact that the same PATTERN in PRICE and TIME has occurred, just like coming into a low in October of 1987.