Banks/Financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Decision time Banks/Financials …
Also, take a look at XLF … completed, not only a Gartley SELL but it also has an embedded BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN w/in the Gartley. IF XLF gets above the upper zone of the red rectangle – off to the races but it has to get thru a LOT of resistance, first.
Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.
Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …
Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!
Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.
I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …
How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?
I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.
IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.
IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.
34-35.66 on the XLF.
One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.
So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.
Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.
The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.
As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.
At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.
From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).
Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.
Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.
would still like the ratio to get down to the “major support zone” to get a real feel for the continued bull run. also, continue to watch Banking Index.
Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
note, we are pretty much at the important support zone … can go down into 53 and still have a support zone alive. remember banks lead us down and lead us up .. support here and a bounce should relieve pressure on our equities.
if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007hit pretty much spot on ….
I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.
as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month. So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:
PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007hit pretty much spot on ….
I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.
as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month. So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:
PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
I’ve tried to be pretty consistent ..sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t. When the SELL pattern on the banking index appeared it was, in fact, a beauty.
however, after today’s close would consider it a FAILED PATTERN.
