TWTR update as of July 21, 2018
Posted on October 19, 2016 Leave a Comment
7/21/2018 – FWIW, got a new paddle and it rocks. spent time yesterday in the water paddling w/ a buddy up near Dana Point CA. most epic …
anyhoo, as you read below we have hit the lower end of the target area. take a second and think about it – roughly a month ago we came up w/ targets for the price to respect. NOTHING about fundamentals – all patterns, measured move and blah blah. TWTR went up and tagged em’ and looks heavy …
so, IF still a BULL (I’m neither a BULL or a BEAR – just a pattern dude) then the highlighted green area below SHOULD hold (think polarity principle) and TWTR SHOULD start another leg up in/around that area. If we get a weekly close below the lower area, i would start thinking of cutting it or lightning the long position.
enjoy, get out in the water …
Bart
06/09/2018 – train left the station on me for TWTR. never reached the $10 ish pattern level. Oh well, “better to be out of the market wishing you were in than in the market and wishing you were out …”
for those long this puppy we have a VERY strong target zone of 46-52.
using some polarity, would stay long into this zone as long as we don’t break down below 36-38 on a weekly closing basis.
TWTR got the Trump Bump I guess … LOL (just making a joke folks, no need for any chaotic political commentary.
Off to surf … w/ a sub par paddle. Snapped my good one last night for a sunset paddle … bummer.
Bart
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10/18/2016 -if you have read my blog, you know that I really don’t have a clue about the fundamentals or anything like that. pure patterns, all the time.
I’ve been doing work on TWTR (just search for TWTR in the search on my blog) and you can see that the 10 area was the long term target. when it got down to about 13 and took off I was like “oh well, didn’t hit the pattern, so next.”
but something happened and now we are resting on the .786 . if that breaks to the downside then it appears ready to perhaps go towards the pattern in/around 9-10.
stay tuned …
B
TWTR update
Posted on October 19, 2016 Leave a Comment
10/18/2016 -if you have read my blog, you know that I really don’t have a clue about the fundamentals or anything like that. pure patterns, all the time.
I’ve been doing work on TWTR (just search for TWTR in the search on my blog) and you can see that the 10 area was the long term target. when it got down to about 13 and took off I was like “oh well, didn’t hit the pattern, so next.”
but something happened and now we are resting on the .786 . if that breaks to the downside then it appears ready to perhaps go towards the pattern in/around 9-10.
stay tuned …
B
USD vs JPY at key juncture
Posted on October 16, 2016 Leave a Comment
here’s the chart shared w/ a couple buddies last week .. apologize for not posting, was at Stocktoberfest:
as you can see from the chart below, we are getting right up into this area … it’s going to be a big deal for the USD vs JPY and a level to pay attention to ….
$PCLN update 10/9/2016
Posted on October 9, 2016 Leave a Comment
10/9/2016
PCLN found support on the “polarity” from the IPO and, essentially, negated the mirror image foldback pattern discussed below. What now?
If you take a look at the long term chart, again, you’ll see some powerful sell patterns all coming together. as for right now, appears we are in no mans land w/ no pattern (buy or sell) present.
here’s the patterns present:
- 1.1618 extension from the IPO high
- note the black arrow going up from the post IPO low to the IPO high. That same “move” is present into the target area. the black arrow is “copy” and “pasted” from the IPO to current market prices.
- 3 drive to a top – the blue triangles
- 1,2,3,4,5 reverse point wave
- a “perfect” Butterfly Sell pattern – (it has an AB=CD present in the last leg of the Butterfly)
who knows if it will get that high right now .. but certainly realize that 1600-1625 has a TON of resistance.
B
02/01/2016
as you can see below, the light blue trend line below was taken out. now we are approaching major support as shown by the polarity principle. some bid thrust/candles going into this level so this will be a key test in the coming days/weeks. if we lose this level, then expect 1.27 level to be attacked in the high 800’s.
12/20/2015: update to PCLN.
one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.
one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.
so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below. also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points. I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.
this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.
anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.
Folks, this mirror image got smoked. Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.
Where are we now?
Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level. I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …
here’s the MONTHLY picture …
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
How to create the “real” trend lines UPDATED
Posted on October 7, 2016 Leave a Comment
10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend. below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create. In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day. HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low. I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P. It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.
also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.
Have a GREAT weekend.
B
08/27/2016 – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.
again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.
rock on, ok?
PATTERNS … work and they fail.
PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.
PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..
What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?
That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….
IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.
so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.
Pay Attention ….
Bart
PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon. No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern. TRADE IT or NOT.
PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago. 21708/10 = 2170.8. Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME. “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences. An FYI …
the “Willie Willie” ,Derivatives and Deutsche Bank
Posted on October 1, 2016 2 Comments
October 01, 2016 – UPDATE on DB
yes, over a year ago, the storm clouds were brewing around $DB. there were some nice patterns present for the DB move on Friday. no conspiracy theories here BUT somebody BIG came in an bought DB. the “news” was heightened, the CNBC talking head pundits made it a story and THAT folks makes it time to cover. Once “markets in turmoil” CNBC or some chucklehead w/ an MBA from Harvard starts opining about it the move is done for now ..
so where are we? Well, if you look at the charts below you’ll see that 1) the EURO, the DAX and DB all moved together … makes sense as they both are flirting w/ disaster.
here’s a post I did for the gang over @seeitmarket: http://www.seeitmarket.com/german-dax-chart-says-pullback-then-final-thrust-higher-14248/
the clearest picture I have, right now, is on the GERMAN DAX. Below you’ll find a GARTLEY SELL pattern and it’s a beauty!
so, let’s do the IF THEN game ..
IF this PATTERN works
THEN the
DAX and the EURO and DB should
start another leg down and it could get very ugly.
IF this PATTERN fails
THEN the
count for @seeitmarket is correct and the DAX will go to new highs and, for now, we
have kicked the can down the road.
the ‘line of death’ so to speak is the area denoted sell pattern OR perhaps a little higher at the .786.
STAY TUNED
Please, come to my help but Merkel said she won’t “bail out DB” …ummmmm, yeah right.
they all bottomed in/around the same time and off they went … go figure, right?
so, the clearest picture is the GERMAN DAX sell PATTERN above – that will tell us a lot of where we are.
have a good weekend and Beat Air Force!
B
One of the things REQUIRED before flying was to check the weather. Makes sense, hugh?
One day, we checked the weather and, well, there was a “Willie Willie” or weather warning for our local area for when we were going to be landing. News flash, don’t go flying…..BUT (always the “but” rebuttal) we HAD TO GET A JET “profile checked” before going to the boat. So, we looked at each other and said the proverbial words –
“doesn’t look like this WW is going to develop as forecasted.”
that was “always” the defense of idiots who launched into bad weather ….
Guess what, it was one hell of storm, we landed w/ a tornado touching down around 8 miles from our location BUT (the proverbial BUT) the jet flew out to the aircraft carrier the next day.
“idiots, party of two your table is ready”
“we’re here and will take our seat”
folks, we have another “Willie Willie” on the horizon and it’s financial in nature. Here’s the “weather radar picture” of the storm approaching – Deutsche Bank.
hate to mention the fundamentals, but all of this has happened in the past 6 months:
– Deutsche co-CEOs announce “resignation” nine months before their contracts expire
– CEO Anshu Jain was given more power to reorganise the bank
– Deutsche have been engaged in money laundering, tax evasion, derivative and manipulation scandals
– Deutsche is world’s largest holder of financial weapons of mass destruction (FWMD)
– Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position almost 15 times as large as Germany’s GDP
here’s what the “Oracle of Omaha” thinks about Derivatives:
there are 1.4 QUADRILLION DERIVATIVES OUTSTANDING …..
So, YOU make the FINANCIAL DECISION to go “flying” into a “Willie Willie” or not and YOU can also “play it safe” and NOT go “flying” into something that looks pretty bad …
REMEMBER SINCE 2009 NONE OF THE “DOOM AND GLOOM” FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN CORRECT BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A “WEATHER MAN/WOMAN” GET’S IT RIGHT AND YOUR SOCKS GET KNOCKED OFF BY ONE HELL OF A STORM!
As for me … the recent 6 months have given us plenty of warning that a storm is definitely brewing and, perhaps, is going to develop as forecasted.
Now, for the “if-then”
IF
$DB breaks another level of support (20/share)
THEN
IS
the worlds largest derivative holder bankrupt?
IF
this is the case
THEN
things could/will get pretty ugly, pretty fast
SO
keep your powder dry and
PERHAPS
NOT
take off into a forecasted (read probable) storm that is forecasted. the forecasters of “doom-gloom” haven’t gotten it right, yet.
folks, notice that no jets are flying off the deck this night. sometimes they “develop as forecasted” and “sometimes they don’t” …it’s all probability
“Heightened” Emotional States .. TRUST MEASURED MOVES
Posted on September 28, 2016 Leave a Comment
here’s the update and a BUY pattern …
A friend of mine alerted me to $RGSE (Real Goods Solar) today and how it was exploding .. folks, it certainly “was” and all the news feeds, social communities were all talking about it …
Knowing that I was getting into a bee hive of emotional energy the FIRST thing I thought was – MEASURED MOVES.
So, in the past a %227 (yes 227) bounce was the “norm” for this stock. Here’s some charts and note .. today, from the LOW to the HIGH was 227%. Is this stock going higher? I have no idea .. it was an AMAZING run today but look for LOW RISK entries where risk is ID’d. DO NOT GO WITH THE EMOTION – go w/ some sort of objective entry (fundamental or technical) that precisely defines your risk.
Chart 1: since IPO, note that “normal” corrections have been roughly 227 percent and, also note, it’s take a while for them to bounce that high. But 227% is the normal number …
Chart 2: note, today, the chart went from LOW to HIGH exactly 227% and no higher
here’s the 5 minute chart:
- note the LOW to the HIGH was 227% since that high, well it’s down 35%.
- note the orange AB=CD into the high.
- note the 1.618 price projection into the low at the close.
- note the square root projection using 1.27 from the low of the day. “bingo ..”
- note the blue rectangle area … try to long it there if your going to play w/ fire .. or just be patient. if it’s going to rock and roll a nice and CONTROLLED entry will occur and then you can catch this wave, if it’s real.
so, just showing you that the MATH that comprises the EMOTIONS of the MASSES doesn’t fail … know your measured moves during the heightened emotional time periods. They NEVER LIE.
rock on, ok?
Bart
“Heightened” Emotional States .. TRUST MEASURED MOVES
Posted on September 27, 2016 Leave a Comment
A friend of mine alerted me to $RGSE (Real Goods Solar) today and how it was exploding .. folks, it certainly “was” and all the news feeds, social communities were all talking about it …
Knowing that I was getting into a bee hive of emotional energy the FIRST thing I thought was – MEASURED MOVES.
So, in the past a %227 (yes 227) bounce was the “norm” for this stock. Here’s some charts and note .. today, from the LOW to the HIGH was 227%. Is this stock going higher? I have no idea .. it was an AMAZING run today but look for LOW RISK entries where risk is ID’d. DO NOT GO WITH THE EMOTION – go w/ some sort of objective entry (fundamental or technical) that precisely defines your risk.
Chart 1: since IPO, note that “normal” corrections have been roughly 227 percent and, also note, it’s take a while for them to bounce that high. But 227% is the normal number …
Chart 2: note, today, the chart went from LOW to HIGH exactly 227% and no higher
here’s the 5 minute chart:
- note the LOW to the HIGH was 227% since that high, well it’s down 35%.
- note the orange AB=CD into the high.
- note the 1.618 price projection into the low at the close.
- note the square root projection using 1.27 from the low of the day. “bingo ..”
- note the blue rectangle area … try to long it there if your going to play w/ fire .. or just be patient. if it’s going to rock and roll a nice and CONTROLLED entry will occur and then you can catch this wave, if it’s real.
so, just showing you that the MATH that comprises the EMOTIONS of the MASSES doesn’t fail … know your measured moves during the heightened emotional time periods. They NEVER LIE.
rock on, ok?
Bart
Bart's Charts 