Trade / Investment of the Year?
Posted on December 31, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/31/2016 – just updating the ‘trade of the year 2016’ from August. I’m updating it because, right now, at the end of 2016 I don’t have a CLEAR CUT pattern. This triangle worked out grandly … we’ve hit a sentiment extreme in the Gold and EURO pessimism world so probably time to start throttling it back a little. We’ll see …
if anyone has some trade investment of the year ideas they would like to share – hit me. again, I’m simply looking for a PATTERN. the ‘trade of the year’ is a PATTERN not what I ‘believe’ but what I ‘see’ …
put the next 3 charts in context … they are an update to the post from August. Study the post all the way thru …
as always, rock on, ok?
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
you wait, patiently, for opportunities to appear which “change the game.”
as many of you have been following me know, the swing patterns that we watch take some time to develop … in this case a thesis is made for the “trade of the year” to be SHORT EURO vs USD.
what do we have working?
here you go …
note, the MATH stopped the decline of the EURO and we are carving out – almost exactly – the same pattern that appeared at the all time low of the EURO after it was introduced. if you take the time to measure the moves …(I have) you’ll find the swings are almost exact. the LAST TIME the EURO did this it EXPLODED in a multi-year advance that crushed the dollar. is that going to happen again …?
have no idea … but the “rule” from the great land of the CMT is that the consolidated triangle breaks in the direction of the trend going into it …so, in this case, the EURO “should” breakdown against the USD. As shown from the lows in early 2000 .. it certainly didn’t do that. but here’s the daily … and remember the triangle has 5 legs labeled a,b,c,d,e ..
here’s the dollar index pattern:
note we have an AB-CD present, a .618/.786 overlap and a 1.612 extension present. THIS COULD BE THE SUPPORT TO CATAPULT THE DOLLAR HIGHER …just a pattern.
it’s just a pattern but the probability that we are in the final ‘e’ leg of the 1.5+ year consolidation of the EURO is high … this is POTENTIALLY a monster move coming ….
let me know if you have any questions …
B
PS – here’s the geometry of the consolidation .. one line oriented w/ price and time and 90 degree angles created this trend line. (I am writing this before I draw it – cheers)
IF you take the time to study this – and why not if you subscribe to my blog you’ll find that MOST if not ALL the major pivots occurred around the construction of this simple square.
Here’s a great picture from Mr. Joe Dubs:
here’s the monthly square:
again, only one line created these trend lines and it was the low to high and then 90 degree angles. folks, take the time, defy human nature and prove it to yourself …look at the geometry present.
the other thing you can do, if you REALLY want to dig deep is to use the box height and widths to create the time cycles present in the EURO or any security. but I’m tired, it’s late …just think A^2+_B^2=C^2. perhaps there was something to Pythagoras and the Music of The Spheres …or not.
Bart
NVDA
Posted on December 30, 2016 Leave a Comment
was asked to take a look at NVDA.
what an amazing parabolic run and that’s what scares me right now … parabolic explosions do not end well so I expect now to very soon a very violent and CORRECTIVE move … however, I’ll watch this stock to find, hopefully, a pattern to BUY because this entire moves feels like a 3rd wave so another leg up is coming but for now … watch for weekly/monthly signal reversal candles to get defensive.
also, note the ‘extreme’ reading on the RSI. there is no bearish divergence, yet. so, it certainly appears that it needs/wants to correct from current levels to ‘set-up’ the bearish divergence play when it gets to new highs. but, again, this correction starting/coming is from a parabolic move so don’t get spooked if it’s violent and much more deeper than anticipated – it’s just working off the parabolic energy that blew it out.
the monthly signal reversal candle level is roughly 85, still a ways away. for now, that corresponds to the ‘top’ of the log trend line is broke out above earlier this month.
hope this helps …
B
$PCLN update 11/12/2016 and now updated again for 12/30/2016
Posted on December 30, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/30/2016 – PCLN seeking to fill gaps? note the first target is the ‘basic’ ab=cd at 1431. also, read below … the 1600 level was the convergence of 5 major patterns.
11/12/2016 – well PLCN went up and hit the level shown below. Folks that’s 5 monthly patterns on PCLN. IT SHOULD BE MONSTEROUS RESISTANCE for PCLN to go higher. As always, patterns do fail and they do work so it’s all probability. Also, when we go down to the daily time frame NOTE the perfect AB-CD in price and time. This completed the butterfly sell pattern and it’s extremely helpful when TIME of the last leg of the butterfly balances itself …also, note the ‘classic island reversal opportunity” where all we need to complete is a gap down below the shaded yellow box and this puppy could get rolling.
last thing – there are targets a little higher so any strategy should take that into account ..but, for now, we have 5 MONTHLY PATTERNS COMPLETING ON PCLN.
TAKE NOTE!
Bart
10/9/2016
PCLN found support on the “polarity” from the IPO and, essentially, negated the mirror image foldback pattern discussed below. What now?
If you take a look at the long term chart, again, you’ll see some powerful sell patterns all coming together. as for right now, appears we are in no mans land w/ no pattern (buy or sell) present.
here’s the patterns present:
- 1.1618 extension from the IPO high
- note the black arrow going up from the post IPO low to the IPO high. That same “move” is present into the target area. the black arrow is “copy” and “pasted” from the IPO to current market prices.
- 3 drive to a top – the blue triangles
- 1,2,3,4,5 reverse point wave
- a “perfect” Butterfly Sell pattern – (it has an AB=CD present in the last leg of the Butterfly)
who knows if it will get that high right now .. but certainly realize that 1600-1625 has a TON of resistance.
B
02/01/2016
as you can see below, the light blue trend line below was taken out. now we are approaching major support as shown by the polarity principle. some bid thrust/candles going into this level so this will be a key test in the coming days/weeks. if we lose this level, then expect 1.27 level to be attacked in the high 800’s.
12/20/2015: update to PCLN.
one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.
one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.
so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below. also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points. I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.
this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.
anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.
Folks, this mirror image got smoked. Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.
Where are we now?
Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level. I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …
here’s the MONTHLY picture …
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
DPZ .. updated and updated again
Posted on December 30, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/30/2016 – starting to flirt w/ the long term trend line .. watch closely if long.
12/9/2016 – area shown in the original post was exceeded by a percentage point or two but we should be a stiff resistance w/ DPZ. Note, the long term trend line from 2009. a weekly close below this would signal the trend is weakening or done.
Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED
Posted on December 30, 2016 3 Comments
12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post
- bearish divergence – check
- 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
- SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
- note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
- Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.
CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher. We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution. Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70? Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.
11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog. the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s. it’s been a nice run …
is there higher to go … yes.
but then …
here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios. Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.
also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001. Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.
last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works. here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis. I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:
- market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
- the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
- wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- wave 3 can’t be the shortest
- wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
- here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
- the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
- so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.
I honestly have no idea ….
Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:
- square root target
- the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
- the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
- EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
- the .382 from the all time high
- divergence set up on Monthly RSI
- ‘other’ extension and retracement targets
Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.
only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.
B
Gasoline Futures, the Aussie and Audioslave …update to the update
Posted on December 29, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/29/2016 – updating Aussie and Gasoline.
Recommend paying attention to:
- long term basic cycles that hit on the Aussie Monthly along w/ the dashed purple measured move
- the daily BUY pattern on the Aussie
- note, both Gasoline and Aussie have been churning in around here BUT they are opposite. When the high of the gasoline range is hit, the Aussie is bottoming and vice versa.
- THIS SHOULD RESOLVE for true directional move … historically, Gasoline and Aussie trend together. while not a perfect trend fit (sometimes they lag or lead each other) the overall direction has been consistent and helpful.
- just spit balling here BUT sure looks like Gasoline wants higher so, ultimately, will this push Aussie vs USD higher? the BUY pattern on teh AUSSIE will give us a heads up.
Bart
05/15/2016 – note the continued strength of the Gasonline Futures as the Aussie vs USD has been going down. W/ that in mind, believe we need to BUY Aussie in around levels shown.
at a certain point you have to ask yourself – are you going to listen to everyone or do the work yourself.
if you want to “feel the Bern” then let him “show you how to live …”
come on man, do the work:
AUSSIE
- monster cycle hitting this month from 1986 on Aussie.
- take note of the “measured moves in price” coming tino the 1986 and 2001 low .. they are the same footprint
- very oversold w/ bullish divergence
GASOLINE FUTURES
- note, 5 waves down on natural gas
- .9438 symmetry
- 1.27 extension
- 1.27 wave 1 = wave 5
- monster bullish divergence …
Pound … almost time? UPDATED
Posted on December 26, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/26/2016 – still looks like we have a little more time to go into the lows. perhaps a little lower at the targets shown (?)
DBA – be patient, now let’s follow up to the follow up
Posted on December 25, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/25/2016 – if you look closely at the 19/60 level the symmetry shows the potential for a double bottom. However, w/ a daily close below 19.60 it looks like DBA just isn’t ready. All the way down in/around 13 is the next BIG PATTERN. However, you can see the 17-18 level might offer a long shot. for now, consider this pattern from a while ago busted and DBA to continue to walk lower. we’ll give it another shot if /when the levels shown are hit.
Amazing that it’s been a YEAR exactly since we took a look at the agriculture sector. The post below was from 06/26/2014. Based on the price action of DBA the past couple days and the action of the beans, wheat and corn believe it’s time to give DBA a shot. Would stop out w/ a close below 21.50.
Happy hunting … man this took a long time to set up.
DBA Weekly
DBA / SPY relative strength
CLIFF NOTES: Corn and Wheat have hit their targets. Would still see risk below the .841 retrace on Wheat but believe these patterns are complete. Need to wait a little while longer on Soybeans …
Charts ..
Soybeans Continuous
Wheat Continuous
Corn Continuous
the commodity markets are ROCKING AND ROLLING w/ regards to Corn, Soybeans and Wheat ….
so, I don’t know ANYTHING about the inner workings of the grain market but I do know MEASURED MOVES and look at some of the beauties on Corn, Wheat, Soybeans. If we look a the “money manager” bets in the middle of the chart above it appears that NO ONE is bearish? Also, is the bushels projection that great? anyway, w/ extreme bearishness and this quote:
“There’s just no real stress, hot [weather] coming along, so we’re going to blast prices down,” said Jack Scoville,
Vice president at brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Most areas are in really good shape.”
sure looks like a BUY opportunity. But, let’s don’t get cray cray here … we have a target area of support but look at what happened the last time we had a measured move like this … the darn thing bounced around for 3 months. so, let’s let the market prove to us if this is support. then, just wait for that magical weekly or daily pullback (it WILL happen) and then pounce. Folks, this could take months for the correct entry …we’ll revisit these in a couple weeks.
CORN continuous contract MONTHLY
WHEAT continuous contract MONTHLY
SOYBEAN continuous contract MONTHLY
DBA
here is a quick look at the relative strength ratio between DBA/SPY. obviously, quite the thumping here BUT if you look you can see 5 waves down. if we break the swing low (sure looks like it’s going to happen) then we’ll go to that lower target I believe.
DBA/ SPY relative strength ratio
so, why is this important …? well, let’s take the CORN ETF and overlay it on the ratio. As you can see … when this ratio bounces so does corn (make sense) so we will look for some rotation into the agriculture market if/when the equities lose there luster.
why 11254 is SO important to the $NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index). (the ONLY reason)
Posted on December 24, 2016 2 Comments
12/24/2016 – as you can see below, using some ‘basic’ math and having a ‘basic’ understanding of the importance of NUMBERS to this entire ‘vibrational thing’ leads to some amazingly accurate inflection points. 11,254 has been respected as resistance below and the MATH behind it is explained in the chart uploaded below.
also, you can see that the resistance shown around July ‘held’ for a couple of months and then was defeated. this leads to a very nice 3 drives to a top right up to that 11,254 level. if you choose to do the math, you’ll see that it was 15,411 days since the all time low from 1974. do some further math and you’ll find some very interesting correlations … I’ll leave it at that.
what does all this mean? simply, it’s a PIVOT area and a BIG ONE. 347.77 FREQUENCY is causing a lot of stuff to happen … above here, well were off to the races. below here, perhaps a nice pullback.
honestly, have no idea what’s going to happen BUT do know that 11,254 is a big FREQUENCY target and we’ll just leave it at that …
stay tuned …
Bart
07/23/2016 – posting this again because the MATH and the NUMBERS and the VIBRATIONS are so important. I don’t want to go into a “war and peace” diatribe regarding “WHY” this high in the NYSE was/is so important. But, I do want you take notice ….
- note the all time low …10/4/1974. That NUMBER which is actually a VIBRATION … sorry, going to go down a rabbit hole for a moment
- the ancients used words to equal numbers which equaled music. essentially, when we SPEAK our dialect we are actually emitting a sound which plays a tune that is harmonious or not to you. so, in order for the words we SEE as we read and THINK they assigned numerical equivalents .. 26+26 = 52. 52 weeks in a year .. yes/no?
- so, that LOW at 347.77 was the SEED for the rest of the move into the high on May 21, 2015.
- below you will find how – using LOGS (which are cool) we are able to calculate the EXACT HIGH on the NYSE …yes, go read it, it’s the EXACT high.
- Why is this important? Well, the NYSE index is a huge deal … it’s not manipulated and it’s encompasses most everything in that is traded (5000+ securities). so, take note of the chart below … we’ve hung out for 7 days at the .786 but HAVE NOT REALLY CLOSED BELOW IT. THAT IS BULLISH …
- I also see 1,2,3,4,5 waves completing – which is also BULLISH. It warns of a corrective pullback but the TREND is still UP and 1,2,34,5 waves UP means it wants to go higher after a pullback.
so, in summary, there are many bullish aspects of what’s going on right now … but as long as the NYSE stays below 11254 I have to remain cautious. If we blow thru there .. game on! then, perhaps the DOW tries to go seek the END OF THE OCTAVE at 22,346 as explained here:
I’ve seen the planetary aspects that my friends/mentors have been sending me and I also know the Bradley model turned DOWN HARD on Friday into late fall. Just use stops and let the math work …
Bart
I’ve been asked, why do you use long term log charts so much …? Frankly, I think they are the MOST important tool in a chartists tool box.
When a mathematical property (LOGS, ANTI-LOGS, EXPONENTS) are responsible for the British Foot System, Stonehenge and the Great Pyramids I take notice …
In a prior post we discussed that “decimal points” are just “things” and when using vibrations (i.e. the market) we can move/adjust the decimal point. Take for instance the all time low on the NYSE Index at 347.77.
- PI = 3.142
- 3.142 = 31.42
- 31.42*347.77 = 10926.93 (see light blue dashed line)
Of note, the amazing Martin Armstrong called for his ECM model to turn October 01, 2015. I suspect if might have something to do w/ PI and the decimal shift. You see the fateful top in 1929 was September 03rd. 10/01/2015 was 31,439 days ago OR 3.1429.
If we go back to your long term LOG charts you’ll see the power of connecting lows via trend lines (those are key cycles) but what we can also do is PROJECT price targets and time targets.
Today, we’ll just focus on PRICE.
- All time low: 347.77
- Log (the LN key on calculator) 347.77 = 5.85154
- 347.77 = 3.477
- 5.585154+3.477 = 9.32854
- anti-log 9.32854 = 11254
Is that the EXACT high? Um, yeah, pretty much but – IS IT THE HIGH? I don’t know but what I do know is everything is tied together and it’s all math …
have a good weekend …
Under Armour ($UA) – updated
Posted on December 22, 2016 Leave a Comment
12/22/2016 – important support broke, so looks like the 26-28 zone/area is in play. again, all probability. personally, like UA stuff but have no idea what the fundamentals of their marketspace and strategy are. just patterns peeps. here we go …
also, showed some ‘art’ at how/where to draw retracement grids that are sometimes overlooked … folks, shit pile of numbers coming together. sorry if offended anyone but that just seemed like the correct word to use.
rock on, ok?
Bart
10/25/2016 – I was asked to take a look at Under Armour back in June. I saw this pattern – again – had ZERO idea if it would get down there. As a pattern recognition dude, that’s the pattern .. .as of today, appears it’s going to make that level. Some thoughts …
- this is the first ‘true’ BUY pattern since it’s IPO and after a spectacular and somewhat parabolic run.
- caution w/ the size of the candles coming down – that denotes thrust and patterns fail when huge thrusts hits the levels
- note the square root target hits – basically – right at the BUY pattern. That, my friends, is good.
- remember, the square root target is using the Gann Square of 9. One trip around the wheel is equal to the square root of the base number (in this case the high of 53.06) -2 and then resquared. That’s how it works …
- the second chart is a long term log look at UA. NOTE – it broke it’s fabulous run .. so, this selling pressure is expected. that’s what happens when long term log trend lines are broken.
- this pattern fails – IMHO – with a daily close below 25.
