Housing … just keep your head in the sand OR are the clouds forming? UPDATE

11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship.  You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′.  Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.

were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders.  This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.

of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:

home

the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash.  Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining.  Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.

Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …

For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks.  We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice.  (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)

So, that’s all I’m doing again ….

Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE  on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …

Do well, be good and rock on, always.

Bart

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I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather.  YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …

I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why?  Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing.  Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle.  Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.

Study:

  • this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27.  Big support …
  • also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
  • THOSE are the levels to watch …
  • sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?

To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM.  Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …

Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders.  It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….

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Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)

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Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …

Bart

 

LONG BOND since 1981 UPDATED

11/13/2016 – as you can see below, back in July I did the post for @seeitmarket and also here on the blog about a ‘potential’ top / resistance on the bond complex.  the targets were hit and, since then, the bonds have been sold and, just this past week, have accelerated to the downside.  am updating the charts of the Long Bond, TLT, $IRX, RYJUX (mutual fund to go long rates), Utilities, 10 year. it took some time to unfold and a pattern failed earlier in the year but this one certainly is putting probability in our corner that we MIGHT have a ‘generational’ high in bond prices. as always, stay tuned …

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i did this post for @seeitmarket around the TLT (long bond (20 year +) ETF: http://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-price-target-view-treasury-bonds-stretched-15862/  and the targets around 145 still loom ….

so, here’s the long bond and the TLT charts ….not trying to “call a top” just find patterns. could they keep going higher? well of course ..but man, this is really getting quite crazy now, isn’t it?

note, on a monthly you can see 5 waves completing (30 year continuous) and that should mean a pullback but is it the 5th of the 5th?  who knows …

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$PCLN update 11/12/2016

11/12/2016 – well PLCN went up and hit the level shown below.  Folks that’s 5 monthly patterns on PCLN. IT SHOULD BE MONSTEROUS RESISTANCE for PCLN to go higher. As always, patterns do fail and they do work so it’s all probability.  Also, when we go down to the daily time frame NOTE the perfect AB-CD in price and time.  This completed the butterfly sell pattern and it’s extremely helpful when TIME of the last leg of the butterfly balances itself …also, note the ‘classic island reversal opportunity” where all we need to complete is a gap down below the shaded yellow box and this puppy could get rolling.

last thing – there are targets a little higher so any strategy should take that into account ..but, for now, we have 5 MONTHLY PATTERNS COMPLETING ON PCLN.

TAKE NOTE!

Bart

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10/9/2016

PCLN found support on the “polarity” from the IPO and, essentially, negated the mirror image foldback pattern discussed below.  What now?

If you take a look at the long term chart, again, you’ll see some powerful sell patterns all coming together.  as for right now, appears we are in no mans land w/ no pattern (buy or sell) present.

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here’s the patterns present:

  • 1.1618 extension from the IPO high
    • note the black arrow going up from the post IPO low to the IPO high. That same “move” is present into the target area.  the black arrow is “copy” and “pasted” from the IPO to current market prices.
  • 3 drive to a top – the blue triangles
  • 1,2,3,4,5 reverse point wave
  • a “perfect” Butterfly Sell pattern – (it has an AB=CD present in the last leg of the Butterfly)

who knows if it will get that high right now .. but certainly realize that 1600-1625 has a TON of resistance.

B


02/01/2016

as you can see below, the light blue trend line below was taken out. now we are approaching major support as shown by the polarity principle.  some bid thrust/candles going into this level so this will be a key test in the coming days/weeks.  if we lose this level, then expect 1.27 level to be attacked in the high 800’s.

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12/20/2015: update to PCLN.

one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.

one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.

so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below.  also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points.  I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.

this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.

anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.

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Folks, this mirror image got smoked.  Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.

Where are we now?

Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level.  I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …

here’s the MONTHLY picture …

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IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.

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How to create the “real” trend lines UPDATED

11/12/2016 – wanted to provide an update.  the ‘square out number’ isn’t static.  in fact, it changes every day. in this case, as we continue vortexing thru space we see that we are now, essentially, 2180 days since the ‘birth’ of the S&P 500.  Of note, the post election crazy rally was stopped dead in it’s tracks by 2180.  that’s the ‘key’ number right now … the market ‘wants’ to balance itself (remember: form, proportion, balance) so it’s no real surprise that the market went right up to that NUMBER.

so, what happens next? I honestly have no idea … but i do know that the market will move from these levels, usually, w/ a vengeance so just hang on to go up or down … a “weekly” close above one of the numbers tied to the square out would be bullish.  a big break down below some former support would be bearish.

for now, as we bounce around these harmonic numbers of price/time – just chill and let it make up its mind.

hope this helps.

Bart

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10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend.  below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create.  In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day.  HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low.  I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P.  It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.

also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.

Have a GREAT weekend.

B

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08/27/2016  – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.

again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.

rock on, ok?

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PATTERNS … work and they fail.

PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.

PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..

What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?

That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….

IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.

so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.

Pay Attention ….

Bart

PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon.  No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern.  TRADE IT or NOT.

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PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago.  21708/10 = 2170.8.  Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME.  “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences.  An FYI …

Banking Index FAILED PATTERN

I’ve tried to be pretty consistent ..sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t. When the SELL pattern on the banking index appeared it was, in fact, a beauty.

however, after today’s close  would consider it a FAILED PATTERN.

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man … I don’t know

I have no idea what’s going on in the election … I can surmise by the markets that perhaps Trump has a lead? Really don’t know … but what I can say is this little pattern on the CHFJPY hit this afternoon to the pip and well … see below.

just take one second … and think about it.  THIS PATTERN WAS BEFORE ANY ELECTION …of course, everyone trading the CHFJPY spot cross knew this …

um, not.

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YEN – update

sure looks like a big ole triangle is forming and ‘not’ the truncated 5th.  no clear pattern present but we’ll have to watch and see over the coming days and weeks.

NOT as clear cut as I thought …

B

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Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE to the UPDATE

11/5/2016 – Crude Continuous is giving us a nice “heads up” that this move is CORRECTIVE in the scheme of a much larger corrective pattern to finish a big big 4.  the market corrects (most of the time) in 3 waves labeled A-B-C …in this case let’s follow the set up:

  • $26 dollars was the END of 3 of 5
  • $51 was the top of A
  • the 51.92 slight new high (NOTE WAS IN 3 WAVES) was a ‘minor’ b wave and this move lower is ‘c’ to finish the a-b-c sequence of B.
  • the ‘usual’ relationship is 1.618*a = c and note all of the ratio’s come together in/around 31.30-31.60.  THAT’s a GREAT BUY for crude.
    • Else – we could just be arcing out a FLAT and 38 holds it and if we have 5 waves down into 35.70-35.90 that could be it.
  • either way … we are moving into a very nice BUY of crude.

Until we hit that bottom .. the LOONIE will probably not strengthen and churn/burn in around these levels or a little higher. be patient, the move is coming.

here’s the ideal pattern we are watching:

wave18

here’s crude:

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here’s Loonie vs EURO and USD:

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10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE.  Watch this one carefully.  It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.

WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.

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go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE

appears we are at another critical juncture:

  • Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
  • OSX – buy level indicated
  • USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.

again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.

stay tuned

Bart

charts below, let me know if you have any questions.

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the FANG GANG- where are we now

11/5/2016 – I really enjoying blogging for Andy @seeitmarket.  he’s such a great dude, great family and he’s created one of the best resources for quality and professional research.  Over the past year or so (yes, year or so) he’s given me the opportunity to blog/write for his site.  Every once in a while I’ll text him and say “what do you want” and he’ll give me some ideas.  Over a year ago he told me to start watching the FANG gang. So, I did …

F- Facebook

A – Amazon, Apple (you pick)

N- Netflix

G- Google

over the past couple months, these stocks have been responsible for 25% of the NASDAQ’s gain.  That’s a heck of a lot of exposure ….but, in the end, the geometry told the story.  here’s the story …

Facebook: http://www.seeitmarket.com/facebook-stock-update-fb-big-moving-coming-soon-16078/

Amazon – http://www.seeitmarket.com/shares-amazon-amzn-nearing-top-trading-15950/

Apple – http://www.seeitmarket.com/aapl-stock-update-heres-bullish-aapl-buy-setup-15618/

Netflix – http://www.seeitmarket.com/netflix-reverses-could-icahns-move-mark-nflx-stock-top-14506/ (note, this one went to a 1.27 x AB-CD pattern)

Google – http://www.seeitmarket.com/alphabet-stock-googl-critical-time-price-juncture-investing-16218/

what the articles show is these stocks are hitting / have hit MAJOR targets and, well, believe it or not could be in for some very very turbulent times in the coming weeks/months.

Stay tuned, but if history is any guide, one would expect some clear leadership from these names but they have hit major patterns and square outs SO … not sure what the fundamentals are telling us but based on this past weeks action they appear to respecting the geometry/vibration/patterns present based, simply, on numbers and math and music and blah blah blah.

stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions.

Navy over Notre Dame – woot woot.

Bart

Banking Index- they don’t get any better than this … PATTERNS at their finest. (sorry, changed the title)

Wow, doing some chart surfing before I try to Stand Up Paddleboard after my son’s basketball game (TRY is the operative word) and simply jamming to “I am the Highway” by Soundgarden … isn’t Chris Cornell’s voice simply fantastic.  I find when I get in “state” I see things and, well, its simply enjoyable.

Not sure why, but after I saw the 3 ratio’s coming together on GS I said “self, wonder what the banking index is doing.”  And, not kidding, is was a simple as that …

BOOM there she was .. the anatomy of a PERFECT sell PATTERN.  Folks, when you have an AB=CD, a 1.27 extension hit on a .786 retracement – it’s ‘usually’ market magic.

BANKS SHOULD BE SOLD and they SHOULD ONLY BE SOLD BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT WE ARE WRONG PRECISELY IN/AROUND 76.  Perhaps give it the old high around 80.  Your call – it’s all RISK CONTROL BUT these types of patterns only come along like this every so often.

I’m going to spend some time showing how the pattern unfolds and the ratio’s playing ….

It’s a simple as PROJECT, EXTEND, RETRACE.

I am not your autumn moon, I am the night …. rock on, ok?

Bart

SOAPBOX: as you study this chart (study and do it for yourself) realize that this is a banking index.  and, I submit, the entire world isn’t buying/selling at these ratio’s a some preconceived point

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