perhaps short strip clubs or ‘naughty’ websites on Valentines Day? $RICK
Posted on February 14, 2017 Leave a Comment
that’s what the pattern says …
don’t let your significant other know you might be shorting sex … might not work out so well.
hope there is someone special in your life.
Bart
BIDU follow up 2/13/2017
Posted on February 14, 2017 Leave a Comment
2/13/2017 – pretty cool triangle on BIDU.
the ‘book’ says it should break down but not sure I trust the book these days … go w/ the flow I say.
patterns worked in this case – they don’t always (see UAA) but the pattern hit at 247 and the stock dropped to 90.
now we consolidate in a triangle … who knows what’s going to happen next so go w/ the flow.
just an update.
be well, do good, rock on – ok?
B
was on some quick travel today and saw the “twitter-verse” (read universe) rocking and rolling about BIDU. I remembered that I had done a post in November 2014 about Twitter and — believe it or not in March 2014 (almost a year ago). In March, as soon as we made the new high from July 2011 I was starting to look for a 5th wave. As you can see below, in March that was too early. Now, it did hit the target and back off roughly 30% but, ultimately, it kept plugging upward.
So, back to the drawing board, and per below came up w/ 250 as the next target. That one has held – for now – and just looked at the “after market” and she sold off roughly 10% and is trading at 195 bucks.
The “targets” that are derived are pretty good … the waves are pretty good but folks, it’s all probability. the face that we are down to 195 a year later doesn’t surprise me and the fact that 250 held (to the cent) per the work below doesn’t surprise me. And, one last, guess what? The fact that 250 got rolled over to the upside wouldn’t have surprise me either …
PICK your edge … fundamentals, basic technical analysis using moving average and oscillator stuff, flip a coin, music … it doesn’t matter. All your edge is going to give you is a higher probability of something happening than not happening … So, if it works, great. If it doesn’t, great.
Just decide how much your going to lose and that’s all that matters …
Rock on dudes and dudettes!
Bart
OBTW – check this out.
250 high
Square root: 15.81
Square root – 2 = 13.811
(13.811)^2 = 190.75
please take a look at the chart …you can’t make this shit up.
BIDU after hours w/ square root target shown
11/11/2014
was too early on this count, as you can see below. Now, we are approaching some very stiff resistance as shown. another target is 295. all that being said, still believe we are in the 5th wave advance here ….
03/31/2014
CLIFF NOTES: very strong probability that a 5 wave advance is complete on BIDU
Here’s the last look at BIDU working on a 188 target for wave 5: https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/21/the-ray-charles-count-on-bidu/
Updated chart:
USD vs Japanese Yen
Posted on February 12, 2017 Leave a Comment
here’s some work that I’ve been doing on the YEN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=yen
just taking a look at the weekly RSI and, when I trained under Constance Brown she said “the market will tell you when it’s shifting, watch the RSI zones for clues.”
as you can see below … the, what I believe, multi-decade wave 5 occurred in 10/2011 and a VERY powerful advance occurred. You’ve read about my chaos w/in the YEN and how I got stopped out something like 6-8 times (I’ve tried to flush it from my memory) in around 76 ..(yes, 76! and, no one said this was going to be easy!) for what I was expecting was going to be a monstrous ride.
anyway, note how support SHIFTED up after the decades long bear trend … (see dashed green lines) and how, after this correction – which might be pretty much complete it the support and resistance has now shifted down (see dashed red lines) ….
I’m in no mans land right now .. while I believe another advance of the USD against the YEN may be forthcoming I would have really liked to see the RSI resistance SHIFT back up into the 80’s. So .. while our ‘count’ isn’t complete in this wave, I’m going to step aside and see what happens the rest of the month.
as you can see w/ the ???? it’s time to sit on my hands and see what plays out … that’s only me. you do what you want and follow our plan, as always.
Bart
interesting … the RATIO of USD / CRUDE
Posted on February 12, 2017 Leave a Comment
folks, need to pay attention here … below you’ll find two charts:
- RATIO of $$$ / Crude Oil (continuous contract) – note the nice sell pattern that completed a couple months ago.
- now notice … we are hanging by a thread for USD to continue to weaken against Crude
- Ratio of $$$ / Crude oil (continuous contract) – note the nice correlation of the tops/bottoms in the ratio and the moves in crude (makes sense)
All I’m saying is perhaps .. crude is going to continue to strengthen – relative strengths basis – against the USD?
WATCH CLOSELY …
B
$TSLA – batteries appear charged UPDATE
Posted on February 11, 2017 Leave a Comment
02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA. Tons going on in my life .. all good.
As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.
Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together. For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.
WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.
Cheers and rock on, ok?
Bart
04/05/2016
As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.
so, patterns work and patterns fail. want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done. don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.
Bart
so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.
as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.
in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.
and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level? 3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….
- pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME. Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
- this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.
watch this level closely.
as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
this is ‘kind of important’ … I think… and you might want to read to the bottom
Posted on February 10, 2017 Leave a Comment
everyone is talking about low volatility .. trust me, I hear ya.
but man, do I love me some ratio’s …here’s the deal, put one security over another and guess what. If it’s going HIGHER then the numerator is stronger and if it’s going LOWER the denominator is stronger. BOOM …
so, a couple weeks ago I blogged about my ‘favorite’ ratio finding support .. the XLP/NYA. It’s a very simple observation … XLP is staples and it’s defensive. the ‘big boys’ shift their focus on staples in time of RISK OFF. yes, i said it .. i know the market will NEVER go down and its always straight up but … well, just take a look
- BLUE LINE is XIV which is an INVERSE of the VIX. Basically when this puppy goes up volatility goes DOWN and when it goes down volatility goes UP. NOTE – it’s a rocket ship right now, corresponding to very very low volatility. that’s the blue line
- the candles are my favorite ratio .. the XLP / $NYA. when the ratio goes UP the XLP is stronger and the thesis is this is defensive rotation by the big boys – aka Goldman Sachs (LOL) and the institutions.
- note, I put them on top of each other to show a pretty important correlation
- note the blue rectangles.
- those represent inflection points in the XIV and the ratio
- NOTE: when the XLP / $NYA bottoms, the XIV goes down (volatility increases) and when the XLP/$NYA tops, volatility – as measured by the XIV – goes down the tubes.
- note the blue rectangles.
So, it’s official:
- the market is NEVER going down as measured by money managers sentiment index the BULLISH SENTIMENT IS AT A 30 YEAR extreme.
- the XIV is basically parabolic w/ the ratio having bottomed …
a simple observation can be made – the XIV is about to decline which should to lead to a volatility increase. now to soon ….
also … well, the Nixon Inauguration of 1/20/1973 was about 2300 weeks ago .. current S&P price, take a peak. the market topped in/around that inauguration.
here’s what the XIV and the S&P look like together …
the kind of look the same, don’t they ….?
just typing an observation – the market will never go down.
make it real – B
