Traders Tip – “Hidden” Levels … or Pattern Polarity
Posted on December 25, 2019 Leave a Comment
the gifts have been unwrapped and food a plenty has been consumed … the rest of the family is watching TV and were about to go walk the beach. rained last night so no surfing .. bacteria blows.
anyway, I’ve received more than a couple emails asking about the different strategies I laid out in my last post around a PATTERN level and how you could work them into your strategies.
in this case, let’s take a look at the chart below – the NASDAQ composite. I remember, quite vividly, blogging about the 6200 level on the NASDAQ. Why? Well, much like our NYSE Index pattern, you can see that the Nazzie had a very nice pattern from the all time low (AB=CD and 1.27 extension) the market didn’t even pause and blew right thru it …but, notice how it came back and touched it and then exploded higher!
that’s our Traders Tip – this level was ‘hidden’ in that it was a pattern that came from the low in 1974 and also the BC extension from 2000-2002. the market WILL come back to these levels and, the highest probability trade is to trade AT THAT LEVEL and go in the direction of the original break of the pattern. in this case, go long at the level.
notice what happens when we use a .618 projection of the AB leg .. in his case .618 AB at 4238. Just like the AB=CD, the market blew thru it and then came back to kiss it and then off it went … there are examples of this everywhere. the longer the time frame to create the pattern-the more important the level.
one last – notice the 1.618 AB = CD at 9315 … per my last post, around 3% higher, you’ll have a KEY level to trade short, tighten stop if long and wait for a monthly signal reversal candle, or do nothing and wait for a signal reversal candle or wait to see if the market blows thru this level and then patiently wait for the market to return to this level to go long …
I respect and honor all religions … so, Happy Festivus and enjoy family friends over the Holidays.
Bart
also, look at this clear as day SELL PATTERN on the Nasdaq / XLP ratio. when the blue boxed level gets hit, then SELL the NASDAQ. If, the 1.618 Nasdaq projection AND the Nasdaq/XLP level are being hit at the same time, your probability of an important level to short increases.
NYSE Index – 2 percent’ish higher and we have a BIG PATTERN
Posted on December 22, 2019 Leave a Comment
Folks,
it’s nothing but a pattern .. in this case, from the all time low in 1974 we have AB=CD. You can see the math below …additionally, we have the 1.618 extension w/ in 10 points of this level. The levels are less than 1% away from each other. to add some more fuel to the fire we can easily see the monthly bearish divergence present on the 14 period RSI and then the key trend line that tagged the October of 2007 high and, most recently, the January 2018 high …
now, I want to explain something about PATTERNS. I’m not calling a top or making a call or any of that. folks, it’s simply a pattern. I saw a expanding triangle pattern on the DOW – that failed. when we look at patterns you can play it any number of ways. you can 1/ take profit if long or 2/ tighten your stop and watch for a monthly signal reversal candle or 3/ short at the level w/ a stop according to your risk patterns or wait for a weekly/monthly signal reversal to get short. then again you could 4/ do nothing … or if you want to get long – wait for the level to be breached to the upside and then WAIT and o a pullback it will come back to that old level and then trade against that from the long side …
so you see, it’s just a pattern and, because of the long time frame that has made these patterns (AB=CD and 1.168 extension) it is something we need to pay attention to …
it’s only 2% higher …
have a great Christmas w/ family and friends. if you celebrate something else, celebrate as GREAT as you can.
happy Festivus to the rest of us and be good …
Bart
Home Depot
Posted on November 23, 2019 Leave a Comment
quite the run w/ regard to HD.
here you’ll see some projections and extensions (3.142 and 4.236 respectively) showing the ‘why’ behind the current resistance. would watch a weekly close below the red trend lines as a signal that a deep correction is/had unfolded.
as you can see by my count, I’m seeing this as 3 so after this correction it ‘should’ roll to new highs.
Bart
Utilities
Posted on November 10, 2019 1 Comment
been working out Utilities: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2019/06/08/utilities-again-ugh/
honestly, the strength is palpable and, knowing how much I trust measured moves, was somewhat ‘surprised’ at the lack of respect the Utility sector gave to the ‘math’ and PATTERNS.
so, were at a juncture, again. see the chart below … I did the “how to use what you learned in kindergarten to draw circles and one could make the case that they are not ‘parabolic’ yet.
as you can see, the blue arrows show a symmetrical 3 drives to a top w/ both price and time confluence. reacted a little and then blew right thru it .. failed pattern. now we see a 3 drives and a doomed house pattern … also, did some measured move math and we have the square root of 5 and the square root of 8 present at the high. that’s the math for the resistance ….
a weekly close below the 3rd high in/around 778 is key that we have reached an important high for now.
that being said, this is an important sector to watch for now.
here’s a peak at XLU – ETF for utilities.
Ratio … appearing again
Posted on November 3, 2019 Leave a Comment
if you have been following me for a while you know I love the XLP / NYA ratio … well, it’s showing a very nice BUY pattern which ‘should’ (if it works) signify a SELL equities.
here’s the chart …
Canopy Growth – BUY pattern complete
Posted on October 15, 2019 Leave a Comment
last post on Canopy was here: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/canopy-growth/
looks like we have hit the pattern …have some nice timing w/ the ‘square out’ of Venus (H) moving 581 degrees from the high. you see PRICE is TIME is ANGLES and they are interchangeable.
so, from the low we move roughly 58.12 POINTS (price) and Venus from that high moved 581.2 degrees. the other nice ANGLE (angels in the Bible) is the fact that Sun/Venus were at the angle as the high.
anyway, nice pattern here. use a daily close below the .786 as a stop out and a consideration that this puppy failed.
Bart
S&P 500 futures – update
Posted on August 31, 2019 Leave a Comment
09/12/2019 – market blew thru the pattern level and is very close to setting new highs in the ES. This represents a failed pattern … if you look we have some numbers coming in right below old high but as far as the VERY NICE sell pattern that was present – it’s cooked.
back to the drawing board to look for ANY pattern out there … no idea which ones work or which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. going to take a look at my trusty XLP/NYSE or XLP/NASDAQ for a clue.
09/05/2019 – sell pattern complete.
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First off – all over the world – have a great weekend and enjoy family and friends.
second, we have another ‘pure play’ SELL pattern developing that could get tagged in the Asian and European markets (US markets closed on Monday)
this pattern has pretty much all the ingredients that the BUY pattern last Sunday night in Asia was hit.
we have a projection (black dashed arrows), a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) and a .786 retracement (1/1.27) all coming together …
also, remember square roots and the inverse of square roots ties in the frequency of a string so that’s where the numbers come from …
As Mr. Tesla said .. “to understand the universe think of terms of vibration.”
Yup – Bart
Here’s from a week ago and our last post before some travel
Here’s the update for this coming week:
Sunday night … rocking and rolling
Posted on August 25, 2019 Leave a Comment
as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..
additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …
Bart's Charts 