TBT
Posted on August 8, 2019 Leave a Comment
09/12/2019 – as discussed below, took my lumps on trying to go long TBT. so am watching it to try another LONG (yes LONG) TBT. note the volume spike and also the 52 ish percent moves down seem to cause bottoms. also, take a look at the 30 year continuous chart … we very well could have a BIG LOW in rates. crazy, I know …
well, got stopped out trying a long TBT a couple weeks ago … the entire world is/was cutting rates and that didn’t work out too well for the home team.
but, you know what, the PATTERNS are suggesting rates are or have bottomed (I know, call me crazy) but w/ (the latest numbers) 13 trillion of bonds out there paying negative yields something will/has to give ..
back to the chart .. note pretty much every decline has been roughly 52% except for one which was 66% (52.45*1.27) and we tagged the polarity of the long term LOG trend line … nice little volume capitulation …hmmm.
also, note the foldback point … if it’s the foldback point then we are at the very beginning of, dare I type this, a big move UP in TBT.
I’m going to be in the prove it to me world and look for 5 waves up on a weekly basis before jumping in again BUT am watching this one closely.
cheers and salute – Bart
Crude – BUY PATTERN in/around 52-53
Posted on August 6, 2019 Leave a Comment
like the EEM … big support here. if we lose it, look out below …
note, the 15 minute and 240 minute patterns … it shows the fractal nature of the market and, in this case, we have a pattern (15 minute (orange w/ dashed black outline) w/in a BIGGER 4 hour pattern (light blue)
kind of cool, I guess.
B
EEM – big BUY pattern
Posted on August 6, 2019 Leave a Comment
note, we finished a very nice BUY pattern on the EEM yesterday. it was nice in both PRICE and TIME.
it ‘held’ in/around 38’s but is plowing into a pretty big daily gap. additionally, the THRUST into this level was pretty significant. any further weakness below the 38’s is significant for EEM.
also, note .841 level is based on the equal octave scale of music. 1/.841 = 1.1892 or D#.
watch this one closely …
Semiconductors
Posted on July 27, 2019 Leave a Comment
the biggest thing that I’m seeing is we are finishing an AB=CD in percentage terms of around 878.48 percent right at the 1.27 extension from the 03/2000 high. throw in a little bit of bearish divergence on the monthly and I’ll surmise we have some stiff resistance coming in from 1684-1856. Note, if (the big if) my count is correct, this is a larger 3 completing so after a corrective / pausing move we should (again the operative word) continue to advance into new highs.
so, for now, I would watch the 1684-1856 zone for resistance. It’s a stretch for the 1.618 extension to happen up in/around 2100 but that could be another potential target on strength.
monitoring the NYSE Inex
Posted on July 18, 2019 Leave a Comment
my last two posts concerning the NYSE Index and the relative strength of the index (ratio analysis) are here:
just providing an update as it looks like the NYSE Index is about to start a ‘corrective’ leg down … then, ultimately, I will be looking for the BUY PATTERN lower (will try to update if/when it comes) and then an attack on the long term target that I keep showing …
below is the XLP / NYA (relative strength using ratio analysis) – note it is going UP which means staples (on a relative basis) are out performing the overall market = risk off mindset. so stay cautious until we finish this fifth wave up …
TLRY – major square out complete/happening (TILRAY)
Posted on July 7, 2019 Leave a Comment
take note of Tilray (TLRY) and put this one on your radar screens.
we have a big ‘square out’ occurring and this theory is based on the fact that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … so, the theory goes, if we start from a low (in this case) and go up to a high then we have a certain amount of PRICE. (in this case 279 points) so, from that HIGH we convert the PRICE to TIME and we get 279 calendar days and we can also use solar degrees and other ‘stuff’ to look for possible turns ..
so, from the former ATH we have a PRICE and TIME square out and we can also use a technique taught to be my friend Michael Jenkins called the Jenkins true trend line … I won’t go into too much detail but just know that using square roots from price and converting them into TIME produces excellent trend lines …
so, TLRY, might have a bottom in place here and I’ll be looking for 42.13 in the next week or so to give me a clue as to where we are … also, note the log trend line (dashed orange lines) held price all the way down, most recently, price broke above that trendline (bullish?) and did it all around the red trend line that came from the low of the IPO … hmmmmm 😉
Ford – revisited
Posted on June 30, 2019 Leave a Comment
have been watching Ford (F) for a while and here’s the work that went into looking for the mid – 7’s to 8’s to hold: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2018/09/09/f-ford-set-up/
from that level, you can see we have had a very nice and orderly advance and, for now, it appears to be in 5 waves.
IF this analysis is correct, we are setting the stage for a multi-month/week advance in ford that ‘should’ take out the 19ish high, at a minimum, and advance well beyond that in the coming months/years.
Basically, this run is just getting started. Look for the 5 waves to finish in around 10-11 and then a pull back – we should buy that.
feel this pattern fails below 7.42.
risk reward = nice.
Ford – look to buy.
Bart
Silver redux
Posted on June 17, 2019 1 Comment
almost 4 years ago I blogged about the Silver Fractal that was present in the LONG TERM (going back to 1972) Silver futures (continuous contract) chart. here’s the link to the blog: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/the-silver-fractal-you-want-to-study-this-chart/
so where are we now. Pay attention to the bottom formed in the 1990-2000 – it took a decade to consolidate. have not idea if that will occur again but am looking for silver to hold say 12-14 and once Gold finishes the last leg (e) of the a-b-c-d-e triangle then we might get a very nice run in Silver.
I’ve dashed the black box that is ‘looks’ and ‘feels’ like the same fractal that is present right now …note it does squeak out a new low before it rocks and rolls higher. not sure we have anything to do now, but perhaps sometime in June / July the puppy will start to run w/ the bulls.
Walmart WMT
Posted on June 16, 2019 1 Comment
have blogged about WMT here: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2016/01/30/wmt-into-the-high-60s-2/
a ‘bearish’ butterfly pattern is forming along w/ a projection from the all time low. Expect 110-120 to be formidable resistance in coming days weeks.
Bart's Charts 