Global Dow – inflection point update
Posted on April 7, 2019 Leave a Comment
05/29/2019 UPDATE
note, from our last post in April we correctly ID’d the ‘roughly’ 17-18% move (corrective) up in the GLOBAL DOW and I have annotated “same pattern” to simply show this chart acting like the 2007-2009 period, thus far. the key here is the long term LOG trend line that is coming up from the 2002 lows. would expect, based on the monthly candle forming right now, that it should get tested in the coming weeks. breaking that trend line (MONTHLY close below) would be an ‘other’
as for the US DOW, that’s setting up a totally different and, potentially, bullish pattern so we’ll have to put it all together over the coming weeks.
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note the AB=CD pattern that completed on the Global Dow.
note the dashed red arrow rally … well, we are pretty much there in regards to price and time.
should be an interesting week …
Bart
Pay Attention to Palladium and the target that it hit …
Posted on March 20, 2019 Leave a Comment
09/28/2019 – we blogged about this long term target back in March. It was hit on Friday. When we have two 1.618 projections and extensions coming together – it should be a big deal. The other to note is the fact that we have what’s called a “butterfly sell” pattern that hit on the daily and smacked right into the long term targets from 1996. If we get a weekly close below the 1604 ish level, then advise to become defensive. Updated charts below:
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would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.
March 20th, 2880 for SPX
Posted on March 16, 2019 Leave a Comment
March 20th is the Vernal Equinox – first day of Spring (yeah) and from a time perspective is – usually – very important. additionally, we have a new moon/super moon on that date .. my friend and mentor Michael Jenkins taught me that because Vernal Equinox is the start of many ‘time cycle’s we can use numerology to derive potential time and price targets. I know this sounds crazy but as you cans below – it works. 360*8 = 2880. So, on the SPY cash or futures contract in/around that price could be a nice turning point. Knowing this, let’s do some PRICE and TIME conversion. as you can see below when we take 03/20/2019 and SUBTRACT 2880 price we nail the 05/01/2011 high which became a nice 5 wave decline. now, does any of this have to happen – NOPE – not at all. It’s all probability … but, w/in +/- day of 03/20/2019 I’ll be looking for a signal reversal candle to let the market tell me what it wants to do ….either way, enjoy the spring!
Bart
Transports and F#
Posted on March 3, 2019 Leave a Comment
The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …
Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …
The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …
hope you have had a good weekend.
Bart
Gold
Posted on March 2, 2019 1 Comment
have been pretty silent about gold as it has gone up and down and up and down again and again … and, most recently, it’s started back down. folks, this is a complicated correction in Gold. And, mind you, its just that – a CORRECTION in a multi year down trend. here’s the thesis – we are the last wave of a contracting triangle which will then cause a very very strong move to the upside .. but, for now, I believe that will end a C wave and the a-b (triangle) – c correction will be over and another leg down in Gold will begin. now, mind you – this is going to all take months or a year or so to complete but it’s the best interpretation that I can think of, for now … so, near term, if your bullish (which I am near term and am already long) get ready to BUY gold once this ‘e’ leg of the a-b-c-d-e triangle is complete.
IWM – update
Posted on March 2, 2019 1 Comment
12/1 – quick update to show that the “expect resistance” level has been hit so do just that .. expect some resistance. the form and proportion certainly don’t appear to mean this is the end of a move … I could be wrong, but the thrust and strength certainly suggest higher but not after, perhaps a pause/pullback here in this expected resistance area.
11/22 – nice run from the target area depicted below down in/around 100. You see, we were able to use PATTERNS and some math to figure out a likely “stopping point” or “resistance” for IWM around 173 … we then used a GUIDELINE to pick a nice area where it “could” go. in this case, it did … that solidified a pretty good or solid count of 1,2,3,4 as NO rules were broken and the guideline for the 4th wave worked (this time) so, safe to say, we have a probability that we are in a 5th wave for IWM. as stated on the chart, there isn’t really any form, balance or proportion to make a “good” (in my case that would be very AVERAGE) count …. so, using some “guidelines” I was able to find 181 by using wave relationships and proportionality … in this case 181 represents .618 wave 3 and 1.618 wave 1 projected from the wave 4 low of 95. “expect” some resistance in/around here. but, I just don’t think that it’s it for more upside … stay tuned.
the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/
we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …
TWILIO (TWLO) and the Vesica Pisces – update 03/17/2018
Posted on January 21, 2019 Leave a Comment
03/17/2018 – I was asked to do an update on $TWLO from a friend and noticed that it has continued to have amazing strength during the sell off a little while ago and during this rally. I also remember doing this intial $TWLO post and thinking, I should show readers/myself the length of the dashed purple price projection .. honestly, I was just too lazy.
Anyway, I went back today and redid the VP and wanted to show the scaling was completely different this time BUT the vectors still came out ‘pretty much’ around the same length …it’s fractal baby. that’s all I can say .. so, I pretty much wanted to show that scaling is ALWAYS an issue but if you do some of the work and the chart shows you it’s respecting’ish the work by support and resistance then go w/ it .. NEVER use the VP as a stand alone technique (I certainly don’t) but use it as affirmation that yes, the market does in fact vibrate and these vectors prove it. at least they do for me …
so, anyway, now you can see the purple vector and then I did some square of nine price and time work (just calendar days), did some patterns (3 drive to a top) and then, yes, (shoot me) I threw a little planet stuff in there looking for similarities in the IPO date and last Friday/Monday … find it interesting as we are approaching the Vernal Equinox, new moon/super moon we have a lot of ‘other’ stuff converging on Twilio ($TWLO)
as always, let me know if you have any questions. I would watch for a weekly SRC to potentially protect profits on this one .. mind you, it has, in the past, gapped up over these targets also. all probability.
Bart
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My dear friend Larry from http://www.tradingtutor.com.com sent this over so I just fooled around w/ the Bladder of the Fish. The 3 drives looks nice AND the time and price of our vectors sure seems to point at resistance ahead!
the XLP / NASDAQ ratio complete a BUY pattern …updated 05/19/2019
Posted on January 15, 2019 Leave a Comment
05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.
I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.
02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.
if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.
what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.
we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below
to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL
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if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.
in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …
my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …
Bart
Bart's Charts 