how do we ‘find’ a level?
Posted on September 27, 2020 Leave a Comment
the FX market is the biggest market in the world w/ trillions of dollars traded every single day … yet, that being said, based on nothing more than math we can derive a nice pattern/ level to go long or short. I think that is kind of cool …
where to start? I like to think of PERS-D.
P= project. I use 3 targets of .618, 1.0 and 1.618
in this case we PROJECT DOWN and you can see that the orange line is 1.618*blue.
Now we get to the “E” of the PERS-D. People get confused or forget about the E. It stands for EXTENSION. key high or low swings are key and what happens when you retrace them 100 percent? do they lose their importance? no … so we can extend off those points as shown below. (I start w/ 1.27 and 1.618) as you can see, the “shelf of support” is the 1.27 extension and importantly notice where the 1.618 extension lies … right at the 1.618 price projection.
PER – time for “Mr. R” … the plain old retracement. you can spend an entire day on this subject but for now, we will keep it easy. what I REALLY REALLY like to see is the old .382 right on top of the .618. (note: .382+.618 = 1.0)
so we have PER and now the “S” who the? what the? S? S stands for structure and, specifically, polarity w/ regards to support and resistance …. do we have that?
so we get to D which is Divergence and we can check that out if it gets there … so PERS-D.
but think of the math and the 7 reasons 1.15 area will be HUGE for the fate of the EURO.
Bart
Banks – HUGE support
Posted on September 22, 2020 Leave a Comment
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
Banks – where are they?
Posted on September 9, 2020 Leave a Comment
there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.
let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.
here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.
this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.
as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….
in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …
and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …
XLK/XLP update – Ratio Analysis and the power of waiting – update 11/5
Posted on September 8, 2020 Leave a Comment
11/05/2020 – yes, some insanity is ongoing everywhere. that being said, we trust PATTERNS and tune out all the noise. In this case, we had the expected reaction to the resistance levels sighted below and, now with this rally, we have another SELL pattern coming into play. SELL THE RATIO = SELL TECH.
NOTE – WE HAVE A LOT OF THRUST AND BREAKAWAY GAPS COMING INTO THIS LEVEL. this begs “caution” so, w/ the euphoric tech rise, it’s not a stretch to expect this level to get tagged and, frankly, get blow over and fail. but, that being said, it is a SELL XLK/XLP ratio so .. .watch closely.
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last week, blogged about parabolic arcs and showed how we could use geometry to POTENTIALLY (the only operative word in investing) to look for inflection points. if your new to the blog, you’ll find a chart that has been replicated a couple times over past couple weeks /months for an area or zone of resistance. in fact, here’s a print to screen where JC (www.allstarcharts.com) and I were talking about this level … we discussed it ramifications to manage risk. this level was known 4-6 weeks ago and was discussed about it being respected. the past couple days market action can tell you why this was a smart move …
if this zone held, then technology would lose some steam (so to speak) and rotation into less volatile names (staples) would occur. at my last count we had 6 different projection techniques and math coming into this area.
when it broke above it – on a daily basis – I was somewhat surprised but it’s all probability, right? so, I blogged to wait for an open and a close above our targeted area/zone. we DID NOT get an open and a close above our area so the resistance was still on .. that is what I mean waiting for a signal reversal.
signal reversal candle (bullish) = the ‘high’ of the ‘low’ candle is taken out on close
signal reversal candle (bearish) – the ‘low’ of the ‘high’ candles is taken out on close.
when we come up w/ levels, waiting for an open/close above or below a certain level is the smartest way to play it. this is what was recommended … we have a LONG time before the month ends (for the monthly candle) but we can monitor via weekly and daily …
no need to rehash old news .. the zone has been hit. you read the blog – to find out where it COULD (there’s that probability connotation again) go …
using the basics, for now, I have used measured move corrections (blue and orange arrows) and rudimentary retracement techniques to come up w/ an initial set of targets.
folks, this might not even be the top to do all this work … it COULD GET ALL REVERSED TOMORROW.
keep the erasers and pencils ready, this is going to get interesting …
thanks for reading – Bart
Muni’s … key, again
Posted on September 7, 2020 Leave a Comment
almost a year ago, blogged about the chart below looking for the 118-121 price level to be key target zone and/or resistance before the “Muni’s” coul could move any higher. that chart is here:
the first tag of this level led to the exact same price correction as shown by the red dash arrows boxed below. this “zone” still appears to be very formative moving forward … my sense is the market isn’t going anywhere till we bust down the door and explode to the upside – else – we will see weakness if the MUB start’s to break down ….thanks for reading.
NVDA Musical Polarity and the Vesica Pisces
Posted on September 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.
In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.
have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.
when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!
so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.
the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …
NVDA is cooling its jets …
Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD
since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.
Parabolic Moves
Posted on September 1, 2020 3 Comments
Parabolic moves are amazing … if your short and your on the wave ride it and if your riding the long wave in the emotional fueled rally then find your line and carve …just don’t get greedy.
The fact is parabolic moves never (strong statement) or shall I say ‘most of the time’ don’t end well. I’m going to show the parabolic moves that are literally rocket ships and then walk thru some of the charts from the past that show parabolic moves and their outcomes … what’s interesting is they all really do look the same …and, if you can ride out the opposite side of the tsunami it can and will come back . but do you want to eat it if your on the wrong side of the market? I can’t answer you as that is part of your PERSONAL RISK MINDSET.
I posted on MSFT a few minutes ago about it’s parabolic move and got some VERY angry and nasty messages back. I blocked those people. You see, I really do enjoy blogging and investing. I absolutely LOVE observing human nature. Why mention the past couple sentences … well, you see, I get the occasional thumbs up or comment and somebody might ask a question or two and I enjoy responding. I can see, via analytics, that a LOT of people are visiting the blog page. And, if you notice, there are periods that I go silent and then I’ll start blogging a lot because, well, patterns start to emerge.
But the fact that I got a TON of hate and mocking messages over on Stocktwits feeds more fuel to the fire that a top is approaching. Does that mean tomorrow …? Maybe? Probably not. Next week, next month? Who knows … but it is definitely getting very interesting.
In parabolic moves think of physics and Ps. Ps=sustained power. we had numbers memorized when I flew fighters for the Navy .. what altitude, airspeed, G would give you the BEST turn rate and radius to perform the jet. What sustained power could you work to max perform it …? If you went outside the box you are going to trade something …
I can blog this now because I’m a decade + out of the Navy. Back in the day, off the coast of SoCal we took the jet from 250 feet over the ocean and lit the cans (afterburner) got a ton of speed up and zooooooom up we went. Straight up bullseye (nose 90 degrees high) and we topped out above 60,000 ft. (I’ll leave it at that)
The coolest thing about topping out was the jet was STILL in full afterburner …but guess what, it just wouldn’t go any higher and then it flipped over on its back, flopped around out of control and fell like a stone. Nothing to worry about when your 10 miles above the earth but still a little erie to be honest. What happened? Well Ps went to zero. Yup .. the power to keep the jet climbing was gone. Night night, we were done …. the SAME THING HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH PARABOLIC MOVES.
Don’t believe me…? Hope this is more than enough examples:
Altria (MO)
note: these charts are real time as the move was happening. I try REALLY hard to not “could of, would have, should have” …..I try my best.
I have used this chart in a lot when talking to other fellow risk takers. Look how they look the same and the period between the highs is almost exactly the same from a time perspective.
I did this one for my good friend Andy @seeitmarket …it was during the mania rush that was the run up in Bitcoin. Look familiar? The key is, just like now, I was simply trying to provide a “risk based” mindset of the mania that was bitcoin ….OBTW, I’m long BITCOIN thru Coinbase and I let the entire run go because it was a parabolic emotionally fueled mania. SO I WAITED!
And, well, here is now. I kept the Bitcoin (green line) to show the bearish thump and the fact that it is coming back.
I’m not saying these companies or assets or commodities are going to zero or going out of business. I’m just objectively saying that Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong … unless in LEO (low earth orbit) EVERYTHING comes back to earth.
Good thing this doesn’t look parabolic, at all.
MSFT – everyone reading this post learned how to make a circle form 3 points …
Posted on September 1, 2020 4 Comments
folks, honestly, being in the parabolic wave is quite the rush and I’m 100 percent guilty of getting out too early and I would really love it if someone told me they got in at the exact bottom and took it all the way to the top … bless you if you have! 🙂
finding tops and catching knives is a fools game … we all know that. but you can use geometry to get a clue …
so, taking what I learned in my geometry class I used three points to define a circle, found the gravity center and then use 0 price and drew my arc. it’s below.
is a top coming – oh you betcha your bottom dollar.
is my analysis of that potential top target area correct ? I have NO IDEA.
but, we can watch and wait for a signal reversal candle ….
XLK / XLP
Posted on September 1, 2020 Leave a Comment
today, the market opened ABOVE our target zone and on a weekly basis we need to see if CLOSE above this level on Friday … folks, the sentiment indicators are thru the roof and nothing like anything I have ever seen before …. that being said, the market is ALWAYS right so we need to respect this opening. in parabolic emotionally fueled runs it’s always good to WAIT for the signal reversal candle …
I have a feeling we will know when the goose is cooked.
keep charting!
Bart
XLK / XLP TARGET HIT
Posted on August 29, 2020 2 Comments
if you look at this chart …it is hard to make sense of it all. at least for me ….you see the EUPHORIA and SENTIMENT indicators are at extremes and expressing bullish optimism all the way back 30+ years.
I’m going to say it once and for all … folks, it’s different this time. the market will never go down and just buy buy buy. who cares if the leaders are parabolic or any of that … this is EASY.
If that was the case, then the XLK/XLP ratio would be taking out the 2000 highs, correct? throw caution to the wind and its’ risk on right? Ummmm…no, this ratio says that the advance is not as great as we think. I know, that sounds crazy but look at the chart …
anyway, pay attention … a good signal to take profit or go short would be a signal reversal candle that CLOSES below the most recent candle that made the high … see chart below.
Bart's Charts 