Math we like … EUR vs JPY
Posted on November 21, 2020 Leave a Comment
believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …
I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …
in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.
I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.
Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.
let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …
oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….
good weekend to you – Bart
GOOD RX and the Vesica Pisces
Posted on November 21, 2020 Leave a Comment
I know the GOOD Rx dudes … really good guys. Hope this “bounce” starts a big bull run for them.
I’ve been doing some chart cruising and simply just decided to play around w/ Good Rx (GDRX)
1.618, fundamental frequencies, measured moves from the Vesica Pisces and, of course, square roots …
BITCOIN
Posted on November 17, 2020 Leave a Comment
The notable aspect of Bitcoin is the CRUSHING of the Gartely 222 SELL PATTERN in/around 14-15k. As you have seen me blog before, failed patterns aren’t fun because IF you took the investment/trade THEN you probably lost money. But, to try and figure out “where” you are they tell you a lot. The “usually” result in explosive moves higher or lower depending on the the PATTERN being a BUY or a SELL.
As we approach new highs remember, this is a 5th wave … yes, it could explode higher and higher and higher ….but, the euphoria, the political landscape, the talking heads, the “insert something to fuel the rise here” are all going to be blathering but our job … trust the PATTERNS.
If/when we do get a nice pullback the levels of FAILED PATTERNS are usually good support or resistance depending o the type of pattern.
The 21-23K level is a BIG TARGET as it represents an AB=CD from the ALL TIME low and a 1.27 extension. It SHOULD be stiff resistance if not a big ole target.
Last, just take a second to study the 2nd chart below. Remember the CHAOS of the BITCOIN craze …? Well, if we take the point labeled “S” (start) and follow it to X then A= .786 SX. From there, just look at the relationships that were almost PERFECT in this heightened GLOBAL market. Can someone explain this to me …?
Stay safe, thanks – always – for reading.
Bart
GOOGL – SELL PATTERN
Posted on October 11, 2020 Leave a Comment
folks, it’s all that it is ….it’s the famed Gartely 222 Pattern which has the following:
AB=CD – yes we have that
.618 or .786 retracement – yes we have that
an 1.27 or 1.618 extension pattern – yes we have that
so, folks, it’s “just” a sell PATTERN on an important stock and IF (the big IF) it works THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?
OR the PATTERN fails (which does happen) and IF (the big IF) it fails THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?
therefore – sell PATTERN works GOOGL should go down and the market will go down.
else – sell PATTERN fails and GOOGL should GAP (more than likely) over the pattern (happens all the time) and the general market will follow …
GOOGL – SELL PATTERN and that’s all it is …
ITB
Posted on October 8, 2020 Leave a Comment
we have two long term extension targets along with a long term AB=CD. big resistance/target ahead.
UPS and DJ Transportation (update II 10/28/20)
Posted on October 8, 2020 Leave a Comment
10/28/20 -not trying to play Captain Obvious, but that was an ugly sell off today. as shown a couple days/week ago, the Transports were coming up to BIG resistance and/or topping in the area we charted. (FWIW – folks it was simply measured moves. The Transports had done the EXACT same move EVERY TIME except once that was 1.27*measured move)
so this update is to just say, it’s simply too early to put some downside targets on the blog. the correction (or is it a TOP) will produce a CORRECTIVE PATTERN. For now, just chill and wait for the Captain Obvious BUY to appear, if ever.
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Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
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One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
salute -Bart
how do we ‘find’ a level?
Posted on September 27, 2020 Leave a Comment
the FX market is the biggest market in the world w/ trillions of dollars traded every single day … yet, that being said, based on nothing more than math we can derive a nice pattern/ level to go long or short. I think that is kind of cool …
where to start? I like to think of PERS-D.
P= project. I use 3 targets of .618, 1.0 and 1.618
in this case we PROJECT DOWN and you can see that the orange line is 1.618*blue.
Now we get to the “E” of the PERS-D. People get confused or forget about the E. It stands for EXTENSION. key high or low swings are key and what happens when you retrace them 100 percent? do they lose their importance? no … so we can extend off those points as shown below. (I start w/ 1.27 and 1.618) as you can see, the “shelf of support” is the 1.27 extension and importantly notice where the 1.618 extension lies … right at the 1.618 price projection.
PER – time for “Mr. R” … the plain old retracement. you can spend an entire day on this subject but for now, we will keep it easy. what I REALLY REALLY like to see is the old .382 right on top of the .618. (note: .382+.618 = 1.0)
so we have PER and now the “S” who the? what the? S? S stands for structure and, specifically, polarity w/ regards to support and resistance …. do we have that?
so we get to D which is Divergence and we can check that out if it gets there … so PERS-D.
but think of the math and the 7 reasons 1.15 area will be HUGE for the fate of the EURO.
Bart
Banks – HUGE support
Posted on September 22, 2020 Leave a Comment
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
Banks – where are they?
Posted on September 9, 2020 Leave a Comment
there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.
let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.
here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.
this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.
as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….
in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …
and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …
