the ratio has HUGE support
Posted on June 8, 2020 Leave a Comment
can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”
folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.
put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.
disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.
so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.
be safe out there …. Bart
Advanced Micro Devices
Posted on April 25, 2020 Leave a Comment
AMD has been on a TEAR since 2015.
from a wave perspective believe we have a little higher to go for a target of 60-64 and if that is taken out then 77-80. the math of the current high (59.35) is working out so this could be it also … from a wave perspective the current high is 1.618 and exactly 1.732 of wave 3 … I’m labeling this current move as the final waves of 5. a move higher into the shown target zone should do it for now …
the Crude Oil Complex
Posted on April 18, 2020 Leave a Comment
DBA – a target finally hit …
Posted on April 11, 2020 Leave a Comment
the first target zone we have been watching for a LONG time was hit on the DBA ETF last week. note, we also have other targets in the 12.70′ ish area but, as far as long term targets being hit – DBA has hit them. a low risk BUY in today’s climate.
note, when looking at the composition of the DBA ETF, discovered that the largest holding at 14% is CLTL or an inverse bond fund. Interesting … other than that we have the typical coffee, soybean, corn, sugar, cocoa, wheat, cattle and hogs … not that much volume but if your not a futures player then this is an opportunity to get a broad basket of commodities in your portfolio.
Crude Oil
Posted on April 10, 2020 Leave a Comment
if you take a look at the last post on the GOLD/OIL ratio and the sell ratio for Gold – if it holds – will strengthen Oil and the buy at 22 on Oil could take a nice rally up to 32-33
NFLX
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
I have done another 4-5 charts on NFLX w/ varying counts and corrections – the problem (and this is what sucks about Elliott) is they all “might” be right … but, they are CORRECTIONS in an ongoing BULL market so I’m going to just leave this stair step chart up and then leave the rest of the charts off the blog for now … believe we won’t miss out (FOMO) but we need another week or so to see where this puppy is going …
COST Costco
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
some significant relative strength shown by COST and, relatively speaking, guess people need their TP and bulk during the COVID. who knows …hard to get an accurate projection because it really hasn’t done a big correction – ever- to do a projection. some stuff to consider … 1/ it certainly looks like its going or gone parabolic. did a quick 3rd grade geometry trick and took 3 points to create a circle … COST has honored it, thus far so we can see that the high came right in ‘time’ of the arc. that could spell weakness in the coming days/weeks. 2/from the all time low in 1987 we have a very well defined LOG trend line and it’s NEVER been taken out so as along as we stay (weekly / monthly close above) those two read trend lines then the band should play on ….3/ the ratio of COST/NYA is showing the strength and we do see some resistance now and ahead …
note: I honestly never try to “curve fit” anything, I just picked the three points to create the arc and just did it … the fact that it appears price and time are holding to the arc doesn’t surprise me as I have 1000’s of hours on the charts and sometimes just see it .. looks like a fit, so let’s just go w/ it ok?
this stock, COST, is one of the more bullish sets of charts I’ve seen out there ….
BIDU
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
couple years ago ID’d a 5 wave sequence that was completing and then the triangle (which now appears to have been part of the ongoing correction in the B-wave) and now see this entire move since “5” ended as an expanded flat correction where “B” goes above “A” and then “C” takes a big old plunge … if (the big IF) my count is correct in ID’ing and expanded flat correction, then it looks like we have a little more up and downs before we go lower into the buy zone. right now, it’s a pretty big BUY zone w/ almost 20 points between the low and the high portion of the zone. will tighten the range once we have another week or so action …
here’s the blog post from a couple years ago: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/bidu-follow-up-2132017/
Bart's Charts 