NFLX
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
I have done another 4-5 charts on NFLX w/ varying counts and corrections – the problem (and this is what sucks about Elliott) is they all “might” be right … but, they are CORRECTIONS in an ongoing BULL market so I’m going to just leave this stair step chart up and then leave the rest of the charts off the blog for now … believe we won’t miss out (FOMO) but we need another week or so to see where this puppy is going …
COST Costco
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
some significant relative strength shown by COST and, relatively speaking, guess people need their TP and bulk during the COVID. who knows …hard to get an accurate projection because it really hasn’t done a big correction – ever- to do a projection. some stuff to consider … 1/ it certainly looks like its going or gone parabolic. did a quick 3rd grade geometry trick and took 3 points to create a circle … COST has honored it, thus far so we can see that the high came right in ‘time’ of the arc. that could spell weakness in the coming days/weeks. 2/from the all time low in 1987 we have a very well defined LOG trend line and it’s NEVER been taken out so as along as we stay (weekly / monthly close above) those two read trend lines then the band should play on ….3/ the ratio of COST/NYA is showing the strength and we do see some resistance now and ahead …
note: I honestly never try to “curve fit” anything, I just picked the three points to create the arc and just did it … the fact that it appears price and time are holding to the arc doesn’t surprise me as I have 1000’s of hours on the charts and sometimes just see it .. looks like a fit, so let’s just go w/ it ok?
this stock, COST, is one of the more bullish sets of charts I’ve seen out there ….
BIDU
Posted on April 5, 2020 Leave a Comment
couple years ago ID’d a 5 wave sequence that was completing and then the triangle (which now appears to have been part of the ongoing correction in the B-wave) and now see this entire move since “5” ended as an expanded flat correction where “B” goes above “A” and then “C” takes a big old plunge … if (the big IF) my count is correct in ID’ing and expanded flat correction, then it looks like we have a little more up and downs before we go lower into the buy zone. right now, it’s a pretty big BUY zone w/ almost 20 points between the low and the high portion of the zone. will tighten the range once we have another week or so action …
here’s the blog post from a couple years ago: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/bidu-follow-up-2132017/
Gold / Oil :update 04/10/20
Posted on March 29, 2020 5 Comments
04/10/20 – our target level hit and, if you look closely below, you’ll see 5 waves down .. followed by 3 waves up into a “perfect” SELL PATTERN for the ratio. IF this pattern works (the big if) then expect Crude to strengthen against gold and, perhaps, keep the oil rally going for a little while longer.
one of my readers asked me a question on Gold/Oil ratio. below I have charted SPOT gold / futures oil (continuous contract) – wow, pretty amazing move … take a look at the 1.618 projection target a little higher. that ‘should’ (operative word) cause some resistance. additionally, if we keep this parabolic rise in the ratio then the 12 level on oil doesn’t seem to far fetched, does it? thanks again Ray for the ping … great question and observation. that’s what I see .. hope it helps. Bart
the importance of 28.48
Posted on March 28, 2020 3 Comments
I’ve been using the all time low on the DJIA in 08/08/1896 – 28.48 as a KEY node responsible for major support and resistance. as you can see in the chart below, it’s been present at the 1987 crash low, 2002 low, 2009 low and most recently the crash low in 2020. also, if we take that all time low and use the high in 2007 as our AB leg then 1.618*AB = all time high on DJIA.
certainly smells like one more leg down to complete a 5 wave sequence. I’ll be watching for the same percentage decline as 2007-2009 or one of the retracement levels that can be derived from 28.48.
for now, w/ so much crazy volatility be aware where these key levels are going to be going forward and, please, make sure you use 28.48.
Crude, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM)
Posted on March 28, 2020 Leave a Comment
net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity
XLP/NYSE Index ratio – BUY
Posted on March 25, 2020 1 Comment
for those who follow this blog – remember – it’s all about PATTERNS and I try (operative word) to remove any subjective analysis from the mix. PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t …
additionally, you’ll see here – https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/xlp-nya-ratio/ that the XLP/NYSE Index ratio has been a good guidepost for BIG inflections UP and DOWN for the equity market.
today, at the low on the ratio, we completed a BUY PATTERN. we do have a little lower for other targets to get hit but, essentially, we have a BUY PATTERN complete and, if it works (operative saying), THEN the selling should resume …
if it fails, which it certainly could, then this is a very bullish development and the rally will continue .. patterns like this, when they fail, are usually face rippers so time to hold on and see which way the market Gods would like to go …
Banks – at support zone
Posted on March 23, 2020 Leave a Comment
here’s the last post on the Banks: https://bartscharts.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/very-important-level-on-the-banks/
note, we are pretty much at the important support zone … can go down into 53 and still have a support zone alive. remember banks lead us down and lead us up .. support here and a bounce should relieve pressure on our equities.
XLP/NYA ratio …
Posted on March 23, 2020 Leave a Comment
we have a pretty big ‘wick’ up at the all time high on the ratio and closed w/ a doji today at the level that’s basically equal to the close on Friday. Basically, even though we were down 500+ the ‘fear’ subsided w/regards to the Staples/NYA ratio. this lack of follow thru is telling .. is the low in place, yet. I HAVE NO IDEA but I do trust this ratio .. until we CLOSE ABOVE the blue rectangle area on a WEEKLY basis I’ll move to a neutral stance in the equity market for now … trading bounce (not necessarily a long term investment buy) appears to be working into the vernacular …
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