USD vs JPY redux
Posted on July 30, 2014 Leave a Comment
folks, I’ll say it once, I’ll say it again … PATTERNS PATTERNS PATTERNS. Check out this post on the JPY and then compare everything that has happened … they help you manage risk and therefore they work:
so, where are we now? let’s take a peak. first chart is actually showing another pattern complete and the BUY USD vs JPY that we posted on June 27, 2014. Highlighted areas are the ones to watch.
now, take a peak and we have completed (or a little higher) another pattern on the IMPORTANT USD vs JPY YEN cross. also, note the the N225 futures are up at the .786.
now time to go to the relative strength chart (GOLD / USD vs JPY).
GOLD/USD vs JPY with USD vs JPY overlaid (red line) NOTE HOW THEY ARE EQUAL AND OPPOSITE!
what does a BUY pattern mean w/ this ratio? take note – the equal and opposite inflection occurs w/ regards to the USD vs JPY cross. So, our thesis is IF the BUY of the ratio holds THEN the SELL $$$ vs JPY patterns that are completing/have completed will cause the YEN to strengthen for another corrective leg. Additionally, this will foreshadow weakness in the N225.
see how that works …? Patiently wait for PATTERNS to form, work them into intermarket and ratio analysis and then pull the trigger when you feel like jumping into a 5 TRILLION dollar a day market w/ gorilla’s juggling dynamite from your simple and humble home office listening to Pink Floyd ….
Let’s complete the YEN circle of life ….
CHF vs JPY Monthly
EURJPY Monthly
AUDJPY Monthly .. UGH
GBPJPY weekly
CADJPY Weekly
here’s the ETF for Japan … EWJ
EWJ ETF
WMT / NYSE Index Ratio and the KEY support
Posted on July 30, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: patterns exist on the ratios/we use ratio analysis to look for sector rotation and when the RATIO’s inflect there are usually inflection points. We are at a key level in the WMT / SPX ratio. Also, I added the NYSE Index overlaid. Note EVERY HIGH AND LOW was at this ratio’s SUPPORT and RESISTANCE. We are at key support – TODAY – on this ratio. Also, the XLP/SPX ratio has a foldback occurring and I would “think” it will find support but sure doesn’t look like it …
BOTTOM LINE – this entire thing is in unchartered territory. Understand the scarce resource and monetize on that … stay away from these markets.
BART
levels on the dollar index
Posted on July 29, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: UP to 81.40 down to 80.80-81.00 up to 81.80.
DOLLAR INDEX 4 hour
Dollar Index Daily
EURO should find support now or soon …
Posted on July 29, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: support to come and then get short this bounce. follow along …
EURO support HERE or a LITTLE LOWER
Silver Update July 2014
Posted on July 28, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the move up since early June went higher than expected and, for the first time since the low at 8 I have to reevaluate if a low is in place or we will go down to my long standing 14/0z. so, in order to do that and to watch in real time as we figure this out I’ve included two charts. right now I would like this pullback to test the 19-20 area. If it holds and starts UP strong then the 14 might not be tested….however, if we break that level w/ ease or w/out much of a test then 14 is open.
either way, if we do not get down to the 14 level the KEY is going to be the shelf at 26.70.
apologize for the “wishy washy” nature of this one …the PATTERN completes at 14 but it doesn’t “have” to go there …
stay tuned
IWM revisited
Posted on July 27, 2014 Leave a Comment
Folks, sorry for the delay but was on the Outer Banks w/ family and ZERO access to email, VM, texts and NO cell phone … recommend it if you get the chance! 🙂
That being said, I did get my daily fix on the markets thru Fox Business or CNBC and laughed to myself w/ regard to the “under performance” of the Small Caps and the focus on IWM and it’s relative strength. Why? Well here’s the blog post on the IWM:
- https://bartscharts.com//?s=iwm (if you search for IWM on Bartscharts.com this is the result.)
- all the way back in late November we were talking about the PATTERN that was appearing in/around 113-120 on IWM.
Appears that pattern has hit, looks/feels like it’s working. However, all of the analysis around IWM doesn’t mean anything until a swing low is broken. Let’s watch the swing low noted below for keys.
IWM price and time coming together here/now or soon!
IWM key swing low
IWM showing “PATTERNS” forming zone of 113-120 target zone
S&P 500 cash square out
Posted on July 17, 2014 Leave a Comment
TIME = PRICE and PRICE = TIME.
1959 days ago was the LOW in March 2009 … we closed today below by 1 point (OK, work w/ me)
that is a square out … simply put at any given point in time/space the market “should” be at a certain number … when “crashes” occur or parabolic moves “UP” occur the market is going to where it should be. so, we’ve balanced a tipping point so to speak in the market …
even w/ the chaos of the Israeli invasion and the horrific airline incident the market went to the number it should be at to seek equilibrium ..
STAY tuned …
B
square out
DBA – be patient
Posted on July 12, 2014 2 Comments
the commodity markets are ROCKING AND ROLLING w/ regards to Corn, Soybeans and Wheat ….
so, I don’t know ANYTHING about the inner workings of the grain market but I do know MEASURED MOVES and look at some of the beauties on Corn, Wheat, Soybeans. If we look a the “money manager” bets in the middle of the chart above it appears that NO ONE is bearish? Also, is the bushels projection that great? anyway, w/ extreme bearishness and this quote:
“There’s just no real stress, hot [weather] coming along, so we’re going to blast prices down,” said Jack Scoville,
Vice president at brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Most areas are in really good shape.”
sure looks like a BUY opportunity. But, let’s don’t get cray cray here … we have a target area of support but look at what happened the last time we had a measured move like this … the darn thing bounced around for 3 months. so, let’s let the market prove to us if this is support. then, just wait for that magical weekly or daily pullback (it WILL happen) and then pounce. Folks, this could take months for the correct entry …we’ll revisit these in a couple weeks.
CORN continuous contract MONTHLY
WHEAT continuous contract MONTHLY
SOYBEAN continuous contract MONTHLY
DBA
here is a quick look at the relative strength ratio between DBA/SPY. obviously, quite the thumping here BUT if you look you can see 5 waves down. if we break the swing low (sure looks like it’s going to happen) then we’ll go to that lower target I believe.
DBA/ SPY relative strength ratio
so, why is this important …? well, let’s take the CORN ETF and overlay it on the ratio. As you can see … when this ratio bounces so does corn (make sense) so we will look for some rotation into the agriculture market if/when the equities lose there luster.
not sure what to title it, so just going to call it Part I
Posted on July 11, 2014 2 Comments
“There is a geometry of art as there is a geometry of life, and, as the Greeks had guessed, they happen to be the same.” — Matila Ghyka
I had the wonderful opportunity to sit down and have cocktails w/ JC this week … want to, again, thank him for a bunch of things.
- Thank you for getting me to blog … almost been a year and I really enjoy it. Thanks …
- Thank you for advancing the art of technical analysis the most of any technician in the past decade. (my opinion) Quite frankly, he’s energetic, accurate and shows the world that you don’t have to be a geek to understand TA.
Everyone has a story and he got an earful of mine …(I bought the drinks so he was required to listen (JK)) We discussed a myriad of subjects but the bottom line is he told me to “tell the story.” So here we go …
One caveat … it DOES NOT matter how you enter/exit the market. Just “find” YOUR edge, believe in it and pull the trigger.
My edge is “advanced pattern recognition” – we both tried to come up w/ a name for it and this just sticks. So if you dare to start down this quest (trust me it is a quest) then here’s where we start….
It is crazy that the largest market in the world – FX – will stop on a dime and pivot at the completion of a PATTERN based on harmony, geometry, music, square roots and the like. So, if it is crazy, then how in your right mind can you take a trade if you believe this is the case? Well you can’t … so before anyone starts down the path of market harmonics, music, vibration, etc. it is imperative that they read, digest and enjoy this book:
http://www.constructingtheuniverse.com/
IF, the big IF, you can’t put this book down (like me) then your hooked and I’m sorry. 🙂 If you struggle w/it and it doesn’t resonate w/ you then, do yourself a favor, and STOP and don’t go changing. It’s not that your not intelligent or anything like that … it just doesn’t resonate w/ you, so don’t force it. Trust me, you’ll know.
So …after reading this book and posting some great numbers I was asked by my friend Cody Taefel, CMT to lecture at the University of Richmond. Here’s the intro slides that I used to summarize vibration theory in 15 minutes or les:
I was also asked by my good friend, Jeff Lay, CMT to give a 15 minute presentation at the 2009 Annual MTA Seminar as an “Emerging CMT” – here’s the link of my discussion:
http://mta.s-fx.com/videos/2009/symposium/emerging-cmt-panel/emerging-cmt-panel.html
It was my thought that this presentation would be well received. It wasn’t … not sure why, but for whatever reason, it didn’t necessarily resonate w/ the crowd and I went back to Leesburg VA. That was 5 years ago …
Now, for one last chart on why I believe this is an EDGE (an edge is simply a higher probability of something happening than not happening) I am going to post the “call” that I made as Lead Technician for When2Trade Group on March 06,2009. It was to BUY the XLF ..
So, that’s the beginning. Start w/ an open mind, go buy the book and see if it resonates (vibrates) w/ you … if it does then devour it and get ready for a fascinating journey. I am still amazed when it works …and when it doesn’t, well that’s what stops are for. I think advanced PATTERN RECOGNITION is the holy grail in that it let’s one know exactly where you are WRONG.
Bart
Bart's Charts 