Bart's Charts

#ouch

Posted on August 21, 2014 Leave a Comment

Cliff notes: major pattern from all time low on HD got smoked at 85-87. HOWEVER, let’s take a look at what the long term is showing …it’s showing 5 waves folks so in/around here 105-110 or 130 this should represent an end of move. But for now … anyone got a “cut man” for the corner?

hey … NOTICE he’s smiling … got run over by HD but still smiling! 🙂

I see 5 waves …

Gorilla’s put dynamite down for now …reload after dollar pulls back. (the dynamite is the 4 trillion/day FX market)

Posted on August 21, 2014 Leave a Comment

Summary: perhaps, it’s my background as a Naval Aviator for 11 years. I just read a post about “fighter pilots and organizations” and one of the points was the art of the debrief. so, as I post “stuff” on this blog I attempt to make it all “real time” because those snap shots allow me to “adapt and overcome” (my favorite Naval Aviation saying) and see where we are in the game plan moving forward.

Cliff notes: the first target we had for the dollar index has been taken out but we have another target, shown below, that “should” cause resistance/pull back. Folks, this thing could break wide open and explode (reference HD pattern) but I’m looking to “enter” and will wait for a pattern to form so I can MANAGE RISK. I will not “just enter” and put a random stop “there” …. no, I will wait and wait and wait and wait and wait till the pattern appears. So, here’s another one below:

a POTENTIAL gameplan …up to 82.40-82.50 and then BUY at/around 81.09

Euro makes up, roughly 50%+ of the index so what is going on there ….?

EURO vs USD – finishing a 3rd for a bounce … ?

how about the Swissy …?

Swissy … pattern just a little higher?

how about the GBP vs USD?

GBP showing some signs of a little lower … bounce

YEN vs USD …. nice little pattern up here (note NK225 yet to hit .786 and make higher highs …)

if we lose 104.43 to the upside then big potential the next move has occurred, looking for gameplan above to unfold

USD vs CAD — either a flat to end at 1.0850 or lower. Key is simple .. WATCH FOR 5 WAVES TO UNFOLD DOWN and then BUY at/around levels indicated for another run …

USD vs CAD

Aussie vs USD ….

AUSSIE major low …?

the post below is from February 13, 2014 and I believe it’s important to rehash the most recent moves in the US Dollar. Believe this move has room to go, however, we need to patiently wait for a corrective pattern to form.

this move in the dollar is real so try to get long in the most risk adverse manner possible. as you can see from the post below as the 79 level was repeatedly getting tested I did, admittedly, start to question my strong dollar scenario. that was surely one ugly level for a while but I do think the dollar will strengthen into the low 90’s target that we have been calling for.

take your time and go thru the post below …some AMAZING geometry. Also, remember, ALL of my charts are REAL TIME w/ no backward look .. they are as I saw it.

Bart

February 13, 2014

used GOOGLE to look for a picture of Gorillas Juggling dynamite – this is the best I could find

Early in my career I had the wonderful opportunity to get training from Joe Di Napoli (www.fibnodes.com) Highly recommend learning some of his techniques but, most importantly, his understanding of the market structure and the players in the game. One of his favorite sayings is we must realize that “you are entering into a world where the market is truly a caged gorilla juggling dynamite and – the dynamite is lit!”

Additionally, if you have been reading this blog you’ll realize it’s focused 1) 100% on PATTERNS and 2) it’s unique value is tying PATTERNS into the circle of life (fixed income, equities, commodities, FX). W/in the context of the circle, the gorilla is the Foreign Currency Market. According to the Bank for International Settlements – the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.

The Dollar Index is somewhat important as it represents a basket of 9 currencies – the Euro representing a vast majority of it at 58%.

For all intensive purposes – it’s been “stuck” in a 4 cent range but PATTERNS suggest we are “prepping” for a big move … so, in order to get a “feel” for where we MIGHT be let’s go back to the “beginning” at 71 ish and work thru to present…

PATTERN at after the 71 low

more detailed look at the mirror image foldback present in the US Dollar

CLIFF NOTES: the BULLISH thesis is that after the 5 waves down from 121, a 3 wave (at a minimum) corrective pattern should ensue (A-B-C) and therefore the bounce has farther to travel. Additionally, it could mark a MAJOR low and we are starting back up for 5 waves. The BULLISH consensus for the US DOLLAR is that this move UP is not complete. Please see this chart below … and, notice the EXACT move up from the PATTERN shown above at the “2 or B” level.

note a clear 5 waves down should lead, big picture, to a 3 wave move up (at a minimum)

so where are we now? Without showing an “elaborate” count, we can see by the chart below that we smacked right into a “big picture” .618 price projection that had it’s genesis from the 71 price low.

.618 price projection on the US Dollar causing the resistance

here’s the possible bullish count from the “2 or B” low that shows a POTENTIAL 3rd wave underway. IF the count is correct, then the 79 level has to hold and is very crucial as it suggest that the 3rd wave should begin …soon and UP we go.

potential count showing a bull move

now, we need to drill down one more time frame – that of the 240 minute chart to see what we have going on. YES, we have a BULLISH PATTERN on the US Dollar at 80.05-80.08. In order for this entire thesis to be correct, then I believe this pattern needs to hold for the strength in the US Dollar to begin…

BULLISH BUY PATTERN PRESENT]

the last BULLISH PATTERN present …

PATTERNS fail …they are an EDGE and over time they have been statistically proven to give us an edge. But, what if this pattern does fail? Take a close look at the following two charts … I have not shown this before, but we need to take into account the 5 wave move down from 121 and the .618 price projection — they are starting to form a huge B wave triangle. The 5 wave move into the low is a BIG BIG A and then current structure is forming a BEARISH TRIANGLE w/ the ‘c’ portion just completing (due to the exact nature of the .618 price projection) and ‘d’ and ‘e’ to come …also note the purple trend lines. One forms a head and shoulders and the other is showing the support for the US Dollar since the ‘b’ wave low …

do we have a multi year bearish triangle forming?

here’s one last thing to consider …. take note of the measured move UP move from the past and what happened after it completed … a bearish omen?

a measure move omen ?

CLIFF NOTES:

w/ the deflationary forces present, the dollar SHOULD strengthen. A well formed count supports that and a PATTERN very very close also holds that thesis as correct and positive. The first is the once completing at 80.05 on a shorter time frame and then 79.53 on the daily. They need to hold – w/ the 79.53 as the major pattern if the bullish thesis is correct. Remember, w/ our rules we could go all the way down to 79 again so, for all intensive purposes the 79 level is the line in the sand. We have two symmetrical BUY patterns present …
HOWEVER, if we lose the 79.53 level THEN it will open up some serious selling. PATTERNS will then shift to the B wave triangle thesis …
Last, we have MAJOR patterns complete across the indices and they are “acting” like the double tops that formed in 2000 and 2007. We have the Dow Jones Transports finishing a pattern from the late 1800’s, we have a potential generational low in interest rates complete and PATTERNS suggest one more wave lower in the commodities …

It’s all coming together and one of the circle of life gorilla’s is going to drop their stick of dynamite and big old explosion is going to occur …

VooDoo or Sound Principles? Who cares …

Posted on August 19, 2014 1 Comment

for any of you who have followed this blog will attest – I simply live and die by the patterns. They are an edge …and edge is simply something that is more likely to happen than not. If I manage risk then the edge supports making money in the markets. I DO NOT care how one enters the market …there are more ways to enter the market than one could think and the brightest minds in the world are on the street coming up w/ all kinds of ways to make money in the market.

what works for me …? PATTERNS based on the fact that there is a collective ENERGY/VIBRATION to the market. And this ENERGY/VIBRATION repeats itself and because is vibration and energy then it will abide by the mathematics of musical theory, sacred geometry, square roots and blah blah blah …

my mentor and friend Mike Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) taught me this very SIMPLE but POWERFUL method …. it’s total voodoo OR not ….

1. The Signal Reversal Candle on a LONG TERM chart is very very important. It’s the candle that erases the “emotion/energy/vibration” of the proceeding bull or bear market. It “usually” occurs on a MONTHLY chart.

2. Once you have a well defined MONTHLY SRC then, IF YOU BELIEVE THE MARKET IS MUSICAL (cliff notes: I do) THEN you simply use that SRC as the seed and define it as the UNIT which will define a run UP or DOWN.

3. In this example of the S&P you can see the SRC and how we simply sub-divided it and PROJECTED up into the 1996 area. That target “completes” this run …

4. As you are well aware this is an EDGE! Right … it’s a target and an edge that MIGHT work or MIGHT not but, I’m certainly aware of this target. Look at what happened to the PATTERN on HD – it got smoked today. That same pattern STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS – the DAX, Boeing (BA), WYNN, IBB (buy), etc etc ….so, it’s all probability and that’s OK, for me. Also, don’t use it alone … work your own technicals, moving averages, oscillators, fundamentals – whatever – but be aware of these levels.

5. Last thing – I’m going to pick two or three securities that I have NEVER done this before and just do this technique and see what happens. Not that many, but a couple because, well I’m tried after Bikram Yoga.

Hey, hope you are having a great week!

Bart

1/8 th intervals of the Signal Reversal Candle

NASDAQ targets … note the .68179 target

in my mind, the only Voo Doo out there is the Federal Reserve …

GN

a “relative strength ratio” revisted …about to fall off a cliff?

Posted on August 19, 2014 Leave a Comment

CLIFF NOTES: the XLP/$NYA ratio, when it inflects UP or DOWN, has been responsible for every major pivot in the US Equity Structure over the past 14 years. It is sitting on a cliff of support, which if lost, will signify a move OUT OF “risk adverse” asset class of staples and I would expect the entire equity complex to explode in a phase transition of parabolic proportions. Stay tuned … if it holds, then perhaps the SELL pattern on the $NYA will hold and a “normal” and “needed” correction will ensue. Trying to be to the point and point readers in a less looked at aspect of institutional rotation and flow of funds.

Let’s start at the beginning w/ definitions –

New York Stock Exchange Index ($NYA):

An index that measures the performance of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The NYSE Composite Index includes more than 1,900 stocks, of which over 1,500 are U.S. companies. Its breadth therefore makes it a much better indicator of market performance than narrow indexes that have far fewer components. The weights of the index constituents are calculated on the basis of their free-float market capitalization. The index itself is calculated on the basis of price return and total return, which includes dividends.
The two biggest benefits to investors of the NYSE Composite Index are (a) its quality, since all its constituents have to meet the stringent listing requirements of the exchange, and (b) its global diversification, with non-US companies accounting for more than one-third of market capitalization. NYSE-listed foreign companies have their headquarters in 38 different countries, with the most foreign issuers from Canada, China, the U.K., Japan and Mexico.

Consumer Staples (XLP)

Essential products such as food, beverages, tobacco and household items. Consumer staples are goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. Consumer staples stocks are considered non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing.
Consumer staples can be a good option for investors seeking slow and steady growth.

Ratio Analysis using Technical Patterns:

Numerator / Denominator
If we want to see if a certain (security vs sector) or (security vs security) or (sector vs sector) or (whatever) we put one on top of the other. IF the ratio goes UP then the top “thing” is stronger. If the ratio goes DOWN the bottom “thing” is stronger

XLP/$NYA :

w/ the definition of staples above, one would think that “institutional money” would rotate into defensive names during times of volatility, corrections or bear markets.
if we plot the ratio above THEN when XLP/$NYA goes DOWN we can think the party continues … when it completes a bottoming pattern and goes back up then a defensive rotation should occur signifying relative strength increasing and a move into the staples.

So, w/ the definitions complete, let’s see where we are:

In the charts below you can see that, back in June we saw a pattern completing in/around the 10900-11080 level. It did in fact hit and the market sold off. The broader indices are making new highs and the bullish aspects of this current picture are unquestionable strong. On an intraday basis, we are approaching a key level at 10988. If we are going lower then I would expect it too hold as resistance.

NYSE Index 4 hour chart

here are the charts from June 2014.

doing some geometry work, but basically showing resistance as noted in the above chart.

now, what about the ratio? Is that telling us anything of importance? Well, yes.

Ratio Analysis w/ $NYA overlaid on top of the ratio

Bunch of stuff going on here:

the blue line is the $NYA
the candles is the ratio of XLP/$NYA
note the blue rectangles – at every MAJOR pivot the ratio is almost a mirror image of the $NYA.
the big “clue here” is that the ratio has held the 50% retracement level since 10/2011. folks, that’s almost 3 years. stop and think for a moment about that one … notice in the past we had straight UP moves and DOWN moves which corresponded very nicely to the $NYA equally and opposite. HOWEVER, now for almost 3 years the XLP has, on a relative strength basis, held it’s own, so to speak.
this divergence is something to watch and be very aware. YES, I know that we are continuing higher and higher. I also know that it’s been confirmed that the Central Banks around the world have injected 29 trillion (yes 29 trillion) into the US equity structure…it’s the greatest ponzi scheme of our time.
what’s the bullish picture … ? Well if we lose that level to the downside that has held for 3 years THEN this market will EXPLODE higher and vacuum into the stratosphere. not that I don’t want that ….but I do want a NORMAL market. Folks a .382 correction is very bullish and natural …what’s so wrong w/ that?

If you do ratio analysis, you absolutely need to keep this level and pattern on your radar screen ….

BART

how about a HOLLAH for the DOLLAH ?

Posted on August 19, 2014 Leave a Comment

CLIFF NOTES: target, essentially, hit on the dollar index. perhaps a little higher?

BAIDU Inc … 1,2,3,4,5

Posted on August 18, 2014 Leave a Comment

Cliff Notes: looked at 190 being 5 complete and, while it did work for a while and drop roughly 20% it wasn’t … so now we sit at 226 or perhaps 240 but either way I see 1,2,3,4,5. So, I was early but like Chipotle, believe in a year it will be much lower than current levels. Guess we’ll have to wait and see …

this Mexican Food is HOT ($CMG)

Posted on August 18, 2014 Leave a Comment

CLIFF NOTES: well we looked for a top in/around the 610-620 level and it hit and fell 140 bucks. BUT – it gapped threw the pattern to new highs. I still see a 5 wave count and would bet that this stock is at 250 bucks vice 800 in a year but that gap has 1 of 2 messages. Crazy, unbelievable strength or one final exhaustion gap up/near the highs. Strategy here is simple .. if long, enjoy the rid but cut bate if we ever close below 580.

Last, take a look at the chart below w/ volume … pretty interesting that every 13 weeks for the past 2 years a spike in volume has occurred ….hmmm.

US Steel … defying kryptonite (?)

Posted on August 17, 2014 Leave a Comment

CLIFF NOTES: this break out looks real! So, we have completed a pattern and would look to BUY in/around the 32 level as that should offer support and look to hold this for an investment…. a mirror image foldback is a great pattern to see and fine … basically a PATTERN comes into a level and then goes “out” the same way … the red line in the chart below is the point in price/time that the mirror image foldback starts …what is happening on the right side of the line is happening in the same manner going back up left. IF this is a CORRECT mirror image foldback THEN we shall see quite the run in “X”….it’s just beginning. Strategy is to buy the “kiss of the neckline” and then off she goes ….

will update as 32 gets closer in looking at the form/proportion of the pullback that should happen in/around here or perhaps a little higher.

is the Sun going to set or rise in Japan (aka the Land of the Rising Sun)

Posted on August 17, 2014 Leave a Comment

CLIFF NOTES: for the reasons shown below, 102.70 is the KEY level for the USD vs JPY. If we exceed this level, then believe the USD will begin to soar again vs the YEN.

Going to try and work thru the entire “Elliott is good // Elliott is bad argument” by simply saying when it’s an easy count use it and when it’s not .. it’s probably correcting and if you can’t “see” it immediately then bail to another technical tool box. In the case of the USD vs JPY the weekly and daily count CLEARLY shows 5 waves up from the all time high of the JPY vs $$$.

We made the high around the first of the year and the pair has been consolidating/correcting ever since … the BULLISH aspect of this correction is it has held the .382 from the wave 4 triangle low … that’s bullish for the USD vs JPY.

What’s interesting to note is we have had two sell patterns that have “worked” but have not been able to drop below the 101 handle ….take a peak:

now … here’s where Elliott can help you. In the chart below we have dropped down to a 2 hour chart and we have two potentialities occurring … either we have a 3 that subdivided and 4 just completed which calls for this pair to fall (JPY strength) OR we have a a-b-c correction complete and the USD might begin to skyrocket against the JPY (which OBTW will cause the Nikkei 225 to skyrocket also …the GOOD THING – we know exactly where we are w/ regards to 102.70. Check it out:

this is showing 4 complete and we should be going DOWN

this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it’s going to take off

now, below is the NK 225 futures (continuous) overlaid on top of the USD vs JPY. NOTE THEY ARE ALMOST MIRROR IMAGES OF EACH OTHER …

NK 225 overlaid on USD vs JPY (notice how synchronized they are)

last thing .. notice the TIME component of this correction. Since the all time low of the USD vs JPY (10/2011) the corrective timing has been about right for this most recent correction. TIME is a big deal so, perhaps, we won’t see any lower in the USD vs JPY and it’s time to rumble? My eye tells me the pattern in PRICE isn’t quite done going lower but we have to trade what we see and not believe. Standing by w/ levels above noted …

the TIME component of this correction is complete

Jackson Hole … let the games begin

Posted on August 17, 2014 2 Comments

CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: https://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income

CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed. HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday. Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed. So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year. I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet. I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct. I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT. In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( https://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post. It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).

CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….

CHEERS!