Loonie Update
Posted on July 9, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: back on May 23, 2014 we generated a zone of POTENTIAL support. If you are a equity trader, then you might not think this zone is that big….folks, 150-175 pips is a VERY wide range. And, as you can see, in this case of course it decided to go all the way to the bottom of the box…ain’t that they way the cookie crumbles? So, here’s the post and the work that went into this zone: https://bartscharts.com/2014/05/23/loonie-vs-the-usd-and-how-to-build-a-case-for-managing-risk/
Now, here’s the multi-time frame work that is now building a “first case” for entry on the USD vs the Loonie. Cross correlation the Oil Services Index and Crude also gives “some” (not a lot) of confirmation that this “corrective move” is over. Also, take a look back to the left … we broke thru some major resistance a couple years ago so it “SHOULD” act as support. That, along w/ patterns on top of this polarity makes a case for entry seem reasonable.
support ZONE
USD vs CAD (Loonie) Weekly
USD vs CAD (Loonie) Daily
USD vs CAD (Loonie) 60 minute
Transports ..updated
Posted on July 4, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: not even a whimper at the pattern in/around 7660. So, if look at this post: https://bartscharts.com/2014/06/12/dow-jones-transports-and-the-major-seventh/ we will note that the 1.8877 extension worked the last time. So .. that’s a target around 8578. doing some math and dividing 13.43 into that number we get 638.7. Move the decimal point and we get 638.7 – today we are 638.5 months from the all time low. so, perhaps we’ll go another 300 points to tag that target and, why not? Still amazed that the MAJOR target at 7660 was, simply, crushed w/ hardly any resistance.
Onward …
below you’ll find the Daily chart .. of note is their is divergence present w/ a nice butterfly SELL pattern coming into play. the other thing to note is this divergence is present in the 70’s on the RSI. On the monthly we are up at the 80’s …
Dow Jones Utility Average pattern from all time low COMPLETE
Posted on July 3, 2014 Leave a Comment
DOW JONES UTILITY MONTHLY PATTERN COMPLETE
EURO update target hit
Posted on July 1, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the flat correction we have been watching develop has been hit.
CLIFF NOTES 2: wanted to point out that we have been working w/ the EUR vs USD that, some could argue, is one of the biggest and most liquid instruments in the world. All of this work has been done based on PATTERNS. If you search “EURO” and go back over this blog you’ll find that most, if not all, of the inflection points were forecasted BEFORE they happened and you’ll also see ZERO moving averages, oscillators (I did use the RSI zones for gameplan constuction), Stochastics, MACD, bands, etc …no, in the end, once we CLEAR OUR CHARTS of nothing but PRICE and TIME the PATTERNS emerge. Just a note …
Strategy is crucial here … need the “break” and then the first pullback to SHORT. Still have 1.3747 and 1.3800 area’s to play w/ so being patient is, again, the key.
ENJOY …
MSFT Microsoft
Posted on June 29, 2014 Leave a Comment
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
BUY on MSFT in March 2009
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table
EURO continuing the update
Posted on June 27, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: in the world of Elliott Wave, a FLAT correction can be thought of as a big N. It’s Friday night and I don’t feel like relabeling the count. Suffice it to say our target in the 1.3680-1.3700 area still holds. I’ve tried to put the N in perspective so you can see. The key here is the C wave of the FLAT has to be 5 waves. I can see that count playing out so an expectation to deploy capital on the short side should occur next week. It’s taken longer than I thought it would …but it is playing to the sheet of music that I’ve been reading.
EURO vs USD
Yen … ramifications of this pattern are big
Posted on June 27, 2014 1 Comment
CLIFF NOTES: let’s face it .. 2014 had been a complete YAWN w/ regards to the USD vs JPY cross. It completed a 5 wave move up into the 105.50 and now’s it’s been correcting in a rather less than volatile way. Things are NOW interesting. Again, PATTERNS PATTERNS PATTERNS is what this blog is all about and we have a PERFECT (time = price) pattern completing. Please see below:
USD vs JPY 4 hour BUY pattern
CLIFF NOTES 2: why is this important …? Well, the pattern is completing right on top of a HUGE support level. So, the pattern works and we bounce, start back up OR it fails and we attack a key support level. This is going to get interesting.
USD vs JPY YEN Daily
CLIFF NOTES 3; take a look at the weekly. appears the RSI is breaking thru the top side of the bullish RSI support zone (40-50) so IF OUR PATTERN FAILS then we can make the probable bet she’s heading lower and into the lower bullish support zone – which on a weekly – can be farther. Right now, the 94 handles looks promising …folks that is 700 pips which is pretty big move.
stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions … watch the PATTERN on the 4 hour and have a good weekend.
Bart
NYSE Index Pattern Complete
Posted on June 25, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: in November 2013 I posted that a .618 price projection was hitting in/around 10376 level. while it did cause a month of selling AND gave a monthly signal (go look at the chart) the market subsequently “recovered” and caused the pattern to fail. Now, we have “another” pattern completing as shown below. Patterns do fail. That’s been proven .. however, a majority of the time they WORK. So, watch the swing low (it’s a monthly) and keep your powder dry. Also, the musical note F# ratio of the equal octave scale is 1.68179. Just showing that a .68179 projection works also … it’s all music.
Folks, a 10,20,30% correction is NEEDED.
KIWI Patterns (note plural)
Posted on June 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: Patterns galore in the 9000-9300 level on the KIWI.
AB=CD from all time low (blue)
1.618 extension from 11/1996
AB=CD from 2009 low (purple)
Butterfly Top – light blue triangles.
I expect the highs to be taken out from 2011 but then a BRICK WALL should stop the advance in it’s place.
McDonald’s (MCD) Strategy
Posted on June 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: MCD has been stalled at 100 since early 2012. that’s a long time .. we either have some high level consolidation getting ready to explode or some distribution. Here’s what I see … I see a PRICE and TIME pattern completing so my bias is a corrective move. If you look at the below, you’ll see a potential game plan. Note – the TIME of the 2 was rather long and thus far we have not had a correction to balance that from a time perspective so this prolonged move up I am going to put at 3 … sure looks like a beautiful expanding flat coming together so the next move after either 1) a triple top or 2) a 3 drives to a top pattern “should” be down but, one that should be BOUGHT for news highs to be seen. Will be watching an updating.
Bart's Charts 