US Steel … defying kryptonite (?)
Posted on August 17, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: this break out looks real! So, we have completed a pattern and would look to BUY in/around the 32 level as that should offer support and look to hold this for an investment…. a mirror image foldback is a great pattern to see and fine … basically a PATTERN comes into a level and then goes “out” the same way … the red line in the chart below is the point in price/time that the mirror image foldback starts …what is happening on the right side of the line is happening in the same manner going back up left. IF this is a CORRECT mirror image foldback THEN we shall see quite the run in “X”….it’s just beginning. Strategy is to buy the “kiss of the neckline” and then off she goes ….
will update as 32 gets closer in looking at the form/proportion of the pullback that should happen in/around here or perhaps a little higher.
is the Sun going to set or rise in Japan (aka the Land of the Rising Sun)
Posted on August 17, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: for the reasons shown below, 102.70 is the KEY level for the USD vs JPY. If we exceed this level, then believe the USD will begin to soar again vs the YEN.
Going to try and work thru the entire “Elliott is good // Elliott is bad argument” by simply saying when it’s an easy count use it and when it’s not .. it’s probably correcting and if you can’t “see” it immediately then bail to another technical tool box. In the case of the USD vs JPY the weekly and daily count CLEARLY shows 5 waves up from the all time high of the JPY vs $$$.
We made the high around the first of the year and the pair has been consolidating/correcting ever since … the BULLISH aspect of this correction is it has held the .382 from the wave 4 triangle low … that’s bullish for the USD vs JPY.
What’s interesting to note is we have had two sell patterns that have “worked” but have not been able to drop below the 101 handle ….take a peak:
now … here’s where Elliott can help you. In the chart below we have dropped down to a 2 hour chart and we have two potentialities occurring … either we have a 3 that subdivided and 4 just completed which calls for this pair to fall (JPY strength) OR we have a a-b-c correction complete and the USD might begin to skyrocket against the JPY (which OBTW will cause the Nikkei 225 to skyrocket also …the GOOD THING – we know exactly where we are w/ regards to 102.70. Check it out:
this is showing 4 complete and we should be going DOWN
this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it’s going to take off
now, below is the NK 225 futures (continuous) overlaid on top of the USD vs JPY. NOTE THEY ARE ALMOST MIRROR IMAGES OF EACH OTHER …
NK 225 overlaid on USD vs JPY (notice how synchronized they are)
last thing .. notice the TIME component of this correction. Since the all time low of the USD vs JPY (10/2011) the corrective timing has been about right for this most recent correction. TIME is a big deal so, perhaps, we won’t see any lower in the USD vs JPY and it’s time to rumble? My eye tells me the pattern in PRICE isn’t quite done going lower but we have to trade what we see and not believe. Standing by w/ levels above noted …
the TIME component of this correction is complete
Jackson Hole … let the games begin
Posted on August 17, 2014 2 Comments
CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: https://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income
CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed. HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday. Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed. So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year. I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet. I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct. I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT. In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( https://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post. It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).
CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….
CHEERS!
HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!
DBA – be patient, now let’s follow up.
Posted on August 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: Corn and Wheat have hit their targets. Would still see risk below the .841 retrace on Wheat but believe these patterns are complete. Need to wait a little while longer on Soybeans …
Charts ..
Soybeans Continuous
Wheat Continuous
Corn Continuous
the commodity markets are ROCKING AND ROLLING w/ regards to Corn, Soybeans and Wheat ….
so, I don’t know ANYTHING about the inner workings of the grain market but I do know MEASURED MOVES and look at some of the beauties on Corn, Wheat, Soybeans. If we look a the “money manager” bets in the middle of the chart above it appears that NO ONE is bearish? Also, is the bushels projection that great? anyway, w/ extreme bearishness and this quote:
“There’s just no real stress, hot [weather] coming along, so we’re going to blast prices down,” said Jack Scoville,
Vice president at brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Most areas are in really good shape.”
sure looks like a BUY opportunity. But, let’s don’t get cray cray here … we have a target area of support but look at what happened the last time we had a measured move like this … the darn thing bounced around for 3 months. so, let’s let the market prove to us if this is support. then, just wait for that magical weekly or daily pullback (it WILL happen) and then pounce. Folks, this could take months for the correct entry …we’ll revisit these in a couple weeks.
CORN continuous contract MONTHLY
WHEAT continuous contract MONTHLY
SOYBEAN continuous contract MONTHLY
DBA
here is a quick look at the relative strength ratio between DBA/SPY. obviously, quite the thumping here BUT if you look you can see 5 waves down. if we break the swing low (sure looks like it’s going to happen) then we’ll go to that lower target I believe.
DBA/ SPY relative strength ratio
so, why is this important …? well, let’s take the CORN ETF and overlay it on the ratio. As you can see … when this ratio bounces so does corn (make sense) so we will look for some rotation into the agriculture market if/when the equities lose there luster.
Gold and Silver Update ….and some more of the metals
Posted on August 13, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: a case is made, below, that inflection points in the ratio of GOLD/SILVER cause big movements in the spot gold and silver prices. Also, it appears that Gold lags. We are at a resistance level which “might” be one of those inflection points so expect the metals to get moving NOW or SOON. Probability points “lower” across the board for the metals.
Ratio Analysis – we love using the patterns w/ ratio analysis and, of note, is the noticeable strength in Gold vs Silver the past couple weeks. So, our first chart is going to be the relative strength of spot gold / spot silver. Basically, when the candles are going DOWN then SILVER is “stronger” and when the candles are going up GOLD is “stronger.” After looking at this chart one thing stood out … it really didn’t matter which direction the relative strength ratio was moving, but when the ratio shifted and one of the assets noticeable started to our perform or under perform THEN we had an inflection point in silver. Below you will see a set of three charts showing you the PATTERNS that were present in these ratio’s which, if we knew about them, might have helped us position ourselves – based on other patterns and technical factors — on the long or short side of the spot silver or spot gold market or both.
so where are we now …? Just using basic measured moves we can see that EVERY move in this ratio has been “used” before so our trick is to find out which one might work or not. Note the downward blue and orange arrows … then note the crash and how the vectors were almost perfect. so … we “should” do either the black or the purple measured move UP –right? note we are at the .618 of the gold/silver ratio and the black arrow would take us up to the .786. One of those two levels “should” hold and cause an inflection in the ratio. See below:
note the measured moves – that’s all we are using
so – now that we can see resistance ahead, has the ratio really helped pinpoint inflection points?
spot sliver – blue line – overlaid on ratio of gold/silver
what about Gold? Well, take a peak … the key thing I see is that while it’s not as “precise” from a timing perspective it appears that GOLD LAGS THE INFLECTION IN THE RATIO …
here’s the daily:
Now, let’s take a look at the metals individually. Folks, below is a great chart .. it shows the pegged price of gold from 1913 and, guess what, roughly 1200 is the .382 retracement. So, in the context of this long run in gold prices (100 years in the making) Gold is holding the .382 retracement which is EXTREMELY BULLISH. So, if you don’t believe me here’s the chart:
SPOT GOLD since 1913
if we do break that level – look for 950-1000. Spot silver – sticking w/ my guns here and a buy at 14.
Copper – folks, still sticking w/ a MAJOR 5 wave move in copper complete. More to the downside and, remember, how FXI (China) likes/mirrors copper ….
Home Depot 2-4 dollars from judgement day
Posted on August 12, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: another pattern beginning from the all time low is completing in the 84-87 area. As HD reaches towards new all time highs, this pattern is sitting right in front of it.
Crude approaching/at key buy pattern for support
Posted on August 10, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: a nice TIME and PRICE pattern coming in a little lower on crude for the buy. the reason this price pattern is so key is that, since the low in 2009, NO SWING LOW has been broken (shown by the blue arrows). So, it’s going to be very key for this pattern in OIL to hold as we do not want to see that trend line attacked or the swing low (roughly 91 dollars) to be taken out.
Crude Oil Monthly
BUY area for Crude Oil
USD vs JPY an update
Posted on August 8, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: intraday, the pair has just completed a 5 wave movement down. folks, it’s a tough count in that we are either a-b-c complete and we move UP and highter above 103 from here OR we subdivided and after this brief bounce we continue down to attack the 101 level which has held for 6+ months. If we break 101 a target is shown below. take note – we completed 5 waves up so that is either A or 1. either way, monitor the USD vs JPY closely as the opportunity to BUY again is coming and it will lead to new highs beyond the Jan 2014 high. Stay tuned … take note of the monthly. My gut tells me this is going to be a run away freight train if the 101 levels gets taken out BUT it’s one that needs to be BOUGHT w/ a nice pattern.
get ready to rumble … 
is MSFT making the move?
Posted on August 7, 2014 Leave a Comment
here’s the last post on MSFT: https://bartscharts.com/2014/06/29/msft-microsoft/
take a peak at the RELATIVE STRENGTH of MSFT vs AAPL. No doubt this isn’t too surprising. HOWEVER, it can’t go any lower, can it? Perhaps, just perhaps, MSFT starts to out perform AAPL from a relative strength perspective? the CHART says it can’t get any worse …
RATIO analysis of MSFT vs AAPL
Chinese Yuan Pattern forming ….
Posted on August 7, 2014 Leave a Comment
For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”
That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.
To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,” (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD. Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK. Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets — I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan. If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.
There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc. In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds. The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.
If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin. Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing. Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE … China, your next move please?
WATCH CLOSELY ….
B
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
