Yen … ramifications of this pattern are big
Posted on June 27, 2014 1 Comment
CLIFF NOTES: let’s face it .. 2014 had been a complete YAWN w/ regards to the USD vs JPY cross. It completed a 5 wave move up into the 105.50 and now’s it’s been correcting in a rather less than volatile way. Things are NOW interesting. Again, PATTERNS PATTERNS PATTERNS is what this blog is all about and we have a PERFECT (time = price) pattern completing. Please see below:
USD vs JPY 4 hour BUY pattern
CLIFF NOTES 2: why is this important …? Well, the pattern is completing right on top of a HUGE support level. So, the pattern works and we bounce, start back up OR it fails and we attack a key support level. This is going to get interesting.
USD vs JPY YEN Daily
CLIFF NOTES 3; take a look at the weekly. appears the RSI is breaking thru the top side of the bullish RSI support zone (40-50) so IF OUR PATTERN FAILS then we can make the probable bet she’s heading lower and into the lower bullish support zone – which on a weekly – can be farther. Right now, the 94 handles looks promising …folks that is 700 pips which is pretty big move.
stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions … watch the PATTERN on the 4 hour and have a good weekend.
Bart
NYSE Index Pattern Complete
Posted on June 25, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: in November 2013 I posted that a .618 price projection was hitting in/around 10376 level. while it did cause a month of selling AND gave a monthly signal (go look at the chart) the market subsequently “recovered” and caused the pattern to fail. Now, we have “another” pattern completing as shown below. Patterns do fail. That’s been proven .. however, a majority of the time they WORK. So, watch the swing low (it’s a monthly) and keep your powder dry. Also, the musical note F# ratio of the equal octave scale is 1.68179. Just showing that a .68179 projection works also … it’s all music.
Folks, a 10,20,30% correction is NEEDED.
KIWI Patterns (note plural)
Posted on June 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: Patterns galore in the 9000-9300 level on the KIWI.
AB=CD from all time low (blue)
1.618 extension from 11/1996
AB=CD from 2009 low (purple)
Butterfly Top – light blue triangles.
I expect the highs to be taken out from 2011 but then a BRICK WALL should stop the advance in it’s place.
McDonald’s (MCD) Strategy
Posted on June 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: MCD has been stalled at 100 since early 2012. that’s a long time .. we either have some high level consolidation getting ready to explode or some distribution. Here’s what I see … I see a PRICE and TIME pattern completing so my bias is a corrective move. If you look at the below, you’ll see a potential game plan. Note – the TIME of the 2 was rather long and thus far we have not had a correction to balance that from a time perspective so this prolonged move up I am going to put at 3 … sure looks like a beautiful expanding flat coming together so the next move after either 1) a triple top or 2) a 3 drives to a top pattern “should” be down but, one that should be BOUGHT for news highs to be seen. Will be watching an updating.
EURO vs USD update
Posted on June 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the EURO bottomed on June 05,2014. It’s been correcting for 18 (long days). The most recent correction that occurred (intra day) on Friday was, just that, a corrective move in what I believe is the last leg of a “long” flat correction. Targets in/around 1.3700 are a good place to get into a short. Additionally, we could still POP up to 1.3800 so need to continue to monitor and be patient.
In any event the 1.39930 is KEY to the thesis that our 3 wave 1.5 year correction (labeled below as W-X-Y) is complete and we are on the verge of a major move lower in the EURO vs USD.
Emerging Markets and Crude …
Posted on June 22, 2014 2 Comments
CLIFF NOTES: note on the EEM chart below the “time” and “price” pattern that has completed for time but, perhaps, we’ll got up and see 45 as the target. This is very key as it has held the EEM back for over a year. The basic concept of polarity is shown w/ regard to the blue arrows. Now, take a look at the second chart – it’s Crude and EEM on top of each other. They have moved pretty closely together … so, now, the EEM chart get’s interesting. Our thesis is that the EEM pattern will fail – which will send Crude higher OR it will work causing a sell off in the EEM here or around 45 and therefore exert pressure on Crude Oil. Note, Crude closed at the .786 last week ..
Nothing to do, yet. But watch these levels .. .closely.
ZILLOW
Posted on June 22, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: case can be made for 5 waves. 5th is in progress w/ some targets noted below. Bottom line is this puppy (much like IBB) has NEVER broken a swing low in this run so run w/ this one until a swing low is broken on a “closing weekly basis.” This count sure looks like we are in a 5th and the geometry sure looks like it’s “just starting” to go parabolic.
INTC on the move
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: INTC is on the move breaking thru and CLOSING (KEY) at the high end of the range, above a 9 year resistance line and now testing the higher end of the bearish resistance zone on the RSI. The base it has moved up from has carved out an inverse head and shoulders in addition to basing for 10+ years. Watch this stock for leadership.
GAMEPLAN is, however hard it is, to let this move go and then look to buy the “outside return” against the neckline around 28. Initial targets are shown …
INTC WEEKLY
Now, we need to ask ourselves, how is the stock doing against the NASDAQ? This is where we go to our ratio analysis and look at the picture below … banged right off the .786 retracement level and perhaps this is a rotational play by the institutions. What a nice picture …
ratio analysis of INTC / NASDAQ
Gold game plan potential
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: prior Gold work – https://bartscharts.com//?s=gold
CLIFF NOTES 2: 1370 will be key to the last leg of a triangle, thrust DOWN and out of the triangle and then a BUY.
CLIFF NOTES 3: note the first chart. Again, it’s ratio analysis of GLD vs SPY. What we are looking for is a PATTERN to show a SHIFT in the relative strength of one security versus another. In this case, the S&P 500 has out performed, tremendously, the GLD since 08/2011. But look what just happened .. we completed a pattern at the .786 and 3 weeks ago,we found support and NOW it’s starting to move UP along w/ SPOT GOLD, ABX and the overarching Gold/Silver Index. A key development …
ratio analysis of GLD to SPY
GLD vs QQQ
GLD / DJIA
THIS IS A CHART W/ HISTORICAL PRICES SINCE 1913
gold since 1913
gold gameplan
note ABX – Barrick Gold is confirming this move … a revisit of our BUY recommendation. ( https://bartscharts.com/2014/05/21/abx-buy/ )
ABX
Gold/Silver index appears to be on par to put in a MONTHLY signal reversal candle … (https://bartscharts.com//?s=gold+silver+index )
Gold Silver Index
Sugar – that was some gap up!
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: previous Sugar work – https://bartscharts.com//?s=sugar
CLIFF NOTES 2: am going to have to go back and “see” why 16 didn’t hold but we went thru our target area by a buck and are rallying again. Most recent gap, is to say the least, pretty impressive.
Folks, looks like it’s time to get on the Sugar train.
Sugar Continuous Contract
Bart's Charts 