Tag: $COMPQ

NASDAQ 100 – July 16, 2024

NASDAQ 100 smacking against BIG resistance.

Well, folks, here’s another one …

Again, Mr. Jenkins taught me that often times “end of moves” occur when 4.236*AB=CD. (4.236 = 1.618^3)

Right at this level is a monthly projection, 1.618 extension and the 4.236 projection. Throw in a little bearish RSI and …

Folks, trust me, it’s hard to be the only person that I know (and I honestly don’t know if anyone is doing this – just doing it for the dramatic effect. 🙂 ) that is presenting BEARISH PATTERNS completing/completed pretty much all over the place.

I fully expect them to get run over …have no short position on, yet, but just continue to get levels blown out of the water.

OBTW, the projection on the DOW was almost hit but we are in the “red horizontal DOW target zone” so if it’s going down, it “should” be starting soon. If we have another blow off day to the upside tomorrow I’m going to watch some commodities and currencies. OBTW, anyone notice that the BULLISH YEN PATTERNS hit and have held. That “usually” spells resistance for the US equities.

Sure appears the “easy” and “logical” thing to do right now is to be max long and “set and forget it.” Sorry, I can’t.

AUDJPY FX – June 3, 2024

AUDJPY correlates nicely with the NASDAQ

I like to track the AUDJPY and had not taken a look at it for a while. Why? It’s been in a VERY well defined parallel trend channel going back decades. I’ve never traded it, but use it w/ equities. Hugh?

It’s actually known as one of those cross pairs that are associated w/ “risk on” and “risk off.” In this case, AUDJPY is seen as “risk on” and it’s interesting to see how this is correlating pretty nicely w/ the equities.

The candles is the AUDJPY spot currency pair.

The red line is the NASDAQ composite

The black circles are just correlation nodes that corresponding to inflections in the market and the light blue rectangles are just showing the time component. Now, please note, one time it didn’t even register and this correlation pretty much failed. But, every other market move, the AUDJPY was inflecting.

So, top of the range and an ABCD target on the AUDJPY. Usually spells a relief/correction in this ongoing insanity higher.

AUDJPY correlating w/ NASDAQ

NASDAQ Composite – April 21, 2024

Big confluence zone of support for the NASDAQ.

My friend/mentor Larry shot an email over describing the current state of the NASDAQ composite.

Friday’s move represented only the 3rd time the Nazzie was down more than a two standard deviation – in one day. The last time happened – October 1987.

I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF A CRASH COMING BUT … an interesting factoid, one would think.

We have VERY important support coming in lower in/around 13750-14000.

Not enough of a pullback to do a good projection so … just watch the measured move level (read arrow) and then the confluence levels shown below.

Again, I think we go down into mid-May.

NVDA – July 17, 2023

Last post on NVDA: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/30/nvda-update-may-30-2023/

the ABCD target on NVDA has been hit on the monthly (it actually went higher and did the 12th root of 2 (1.05946) which is the ratio used to tune the equal octave scale of music) with noticeable bearish divergence on the 14 period RSI. I expect some serious resistance. If we blow thru it, then this stock can run. I will update some of the higher targets later if we below thru this level.

additionally, we can see a 3 drives to a top on the daily.

“mind the gap” – huge gap support, as shown, lower.

Ultra Short QQQ (SQQQ)- April 04, 22023

Michael Jenkins taught me how to look for Mirror Image Foldbacks. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) – he also showed me how they are planetary in nature … essentially, whatever planet or pair (s) of planets came together at the folkback point, they will also move “out” from that point causing the same pattern to appears as a “mirror image”.

This one is pretty nice in form and time. Note the TIME component from the “foldback point” hit today and is equal. Additionally, take a peak at the “form” of the moves from the foldback point .. yup, fractals of each other.

So, go long SQQQ and wouldn’t hold it too much below the blue line as the time component on this one looks almost perfect so my “thinking” (don’t think it hurts the team Bart” is we will know pretty soon. Oh, additionally, foldbacks like this fail when/where. MOST of the time, at the foldback point. So … it will work in/around here OR not.

Lot’s of volume in this security … interesting to see the volume go up and down ….

Traders Tip – “Hidden” Levels … or Pattern Polarity

the gifts have been unwrapped and food a plenty has been consumed … the rest of the family is watching TV and were about to go walk the beach. rained last night so no surfing .. bacteria blows.

anyway, I’ve received more than a couple emails asking about the different strategies I laid out in my last post around a PATTERN level and how you could work them into your strategies.

in this case, let’s take a look at the chart below – the NASDAQ composite. I remember, quite vividly, blogging about the 6200 level on the NASDAQ. Why? Well, much like our NYSE Index pattern, you can see that the Nazzie had a very nice pattern from the all time low (AB=CD and 1.27 extension) the market didn’t even pause and blew right thru it …but, notice how it came back and touched it and then exploded higher!

that’s our Traders Tip – this level was ‘hidden’ in that it was a pattern that came from the low in 1974 and also the BC extension from 2000-2002. the market WILL come back to these levels and, the highest probability trade is to trade AT THAT LEVEL and go in the direction of the original break of the pattern. in this case, go long at the level.

notice what happens when we use a .618 projection of the AB leg .. in his case .618 AB at 4238. Just like the AB=CD, the market blew thru it and then came back to kiss it and then off it went … there are examples of this everywhere. the longer the time frame to create the pattern-the more important the level.

one last – notice the 1.618 AB = CD at 9315 … per my last post, around 3% higher, you’ll have a KEY level to trade short, tighten stop if long and wait for a monthly signal reversal candle, or do nothing and wait for a signal reversal candle or wait to see if the market blows thru this level and then patiently wait for the market to return to this level to go long …

I respect and honor all religions … so, Happy Festivus and enjoy family friends over the Holidays.

Bart

also, look at this clear as day SELL PATTERN on the Nasdaq / XLP ratio. when the blue boxed level gets hit, then SELL the NASDAQ. If, the 1.618 Nasdaq projection AND the Nasdaq/XLP level are being hit at the same time, your probability of an important level to short increases.

Pay Attention to Palladium and the target that it hit …

Palladium and the NASDAQ have tracked nicely .. watch the upcoming target closely

09/28/2019 – we blogged about this long term target back in March. It was hit on Friday. When we have two 1.618 projections and extensions coming together – it should be a big deal. The other to note is the fact that we have what’s called a “butterfly sell” pattern that hit on the daily and smacked right into the long term targets from 1996. If we get a weekly close below the 1604 ish level, then advise to become defensive. Updated charts below:

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would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.

NASDAQ – huge trend line support being attacked

12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite.  I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart.  Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone.  The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732.  It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002.  My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ.  And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal.  Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …

the march to 6200 continues … an important UPDATE 04/28/2017 @seeitmarket

04/28/2017 – an update w/ the gang @seeitmarket

https://www.seeitmarket.com/nasdaq-composite-nearing-major-price-target-16812/

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03/21/2017 – update

if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007 hit pretty much spot on ….

I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.

as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month.  So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:

  • PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
  • the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
  • I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
  • just trying to help folks …

The “greatest gift is gold ” U2 ….

Use a stop.

Good night …

B

 

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perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.

also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.

short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?

anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.

just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP!  🙂

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