USO – May 21, 2023
Posted on May 21, 2023 1 Comment
Take a look at USO below … certainly looks like 5 waves down and , every wave was symmetrical and the EXACT same percentage move. Pretty crazy .. that’s why I love LOG charts folks.
W/ the 5 waves down complete and the pretty big move afterward would look to be a BUYer w/ a nice pullback lower on USO. Could be a nice long run higher on this one …
JPM – May 21, 2023
Posted on May 21, 2023 1 Comment
This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.
Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?
Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/
Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.
But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:
Long Bond Futures – May 15, 2023
Posted on May 15, 2023 1 Comment
If your a technician, you can’t help but notice the very long (month ish) consolidation occurring in the bond market.
Today’s price action appears to want and break the support that has been around since March 15th. As you can see above, we do some ‘basic’ projections and right when the neckline breaks there is minor support (blue projection arrows) and then the BIG support w/ the blue rectangle present. A lot of math coming into that level. I believe that is the crucial level.
As you can see from the weekly chart above, the “time” of the corrections have been pretty symmetrical so from a timing perspective certainly looks like this “bounce” has run it’s course for one more leg down.
From the ATH, it’s a pretty clear count and I’m labeling this as a 4 completing/completed and another leg down (rates go UP in this case) into the .618 from the 1981 low (40+ years ago) in bond prices. Note the blue measured move above .. that was the largest correction in 40+ years. We take harmonics from that and you can see the square root of 3 harmonic nailed the low precisely. We have a .618 retrace, 1.618 extension, trend line coming from the low in 1981 and a harmonic of the largest prior correction.
That level is a good level to BUY – if we get down there.
KRE Regional Banks ETF – May 12, 2023
Posted on May 12, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on KRE: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/04/30/kre-regional-banks-etf-april-30-2023/
Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.
Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.
KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:
- 58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
- 1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
- .707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
- Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
- Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
- RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009
Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?
DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)
Here’s why:
So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).
What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.
Good weekend to all – B
Disney (DIS) – May 11, 2023
Posted on May 11, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on DIS: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/01/23/disney-dis-january-23-2023/
HUGE support from 62-77 … the .618 is from the all time low, we have the long term trend line from 50+ years ago and the “next” measured move correction (dashed red arrow – remember this is log scale), also take note of the two ABCD projections (orange and yellow) smacking into the 3.142 (PI) projection, square root of 2 (1.4142) extension and the square root of 1.618 (1.27) extension.
75-78 is pretty important …
Last, a GUIDELINE and NOT a rule is that corrections like to target the “4th wave of a lesser degree” and you can see that comes right in where .. yup, our target zone.
So, from a balance, form and proportion this correction doesn’t look done or over BUT that zone should be some nice support.
NOTE: looking at it on a monthly, looks like we might have a three drives to a bottom setting up …
TBD.
EUR.USD – May 10, 2023
Posted on May 10, 2023 1 Comment
The EURO is smacking against some SERIOUS trendline resistance that goes back to 2000 and 1985 (synthetically).
Remember, the Euro wasn’t adopted until January 1, 1999. So, the grey box below is the “synthetic” version of the EURO w/ the Deutschmark and other currencies providing a “continuation” into the time frame of Bretton Woods.
Either way, pay attention to the “orange measured moves” as that looks to be a pretty good “beat” for price action. IF the EURO blows thru these trendlines then the next target certainly looks to be 1.15.
On the podcast “Trendlines over Headlines” I discussed how measured moves can also be used as time components. Took a few seconds to show this concept by taking the Orange and Blue measured moves and flipped them to horizontal to create the time component of the measured moves.
Folks … look at the chart below. From the 2000 low, you can see that the “measured move in time” was pretty accurate. Now, mind you, this is a MONTHLY chart so we have some “time” for the cycle to hit. But, you can get it down to the day and the hour. Something I’m working on … not quite there, yet. But, I just “like” the measured moves ….use them.
PRICE = TIME. They are the same thing on a chart …
Here’s the creation of the Vesica Pisces for the EURO. For no other reason than to test it out, I’m going to use that first synthetic drop as the “seed”
Now, mind you, this isn’t something that you can really invest/trade off of but, for me at least, it’s a good exercise every now and then. 🙂
the Vesica Pisces is the manifestation for the creation of life and is where the numerical equivalents of the square roots of 1-5 come from … it’s inherently nested in Metatrons cube (Archangel Metatron is – according to legend – responsible for the geometry of creation. Mr. Robert Edward Grant has done AMAZING work showing how this happens and has recently PROVEN that the 3 pyramids were actually constructed at the same time w/ Metatrons cube in mind .. it’s amazing.
Anyway, the market vibrates and is harmonic and abides by natural law. Just like everything … our job is to find that “beat” and “vibration” and then give it a whirl. One last, note, you can move the vectors horizontal to show the TIME component. I would do that but .. need to go do some “work.”
Cheers and make it a great day.
Every PRICE move .. based on the Vesica Pisces. Believe it … or not.
DJ Transports – May 09, 2023
Posted on May 9, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on the Transports: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/01/18/dj-transports-january-18-2023/
The thesis on the Transports is the ATH is a “BIG TOP.” Thus far, we haven’t really broken down that hard so only TIME will tell.
We like when .382 / .618 retracements are on top of each other and we have that a little lower in the high 10K’s and low 11k’s. This a HUGE target zone for the Transports. IF they slice thru that level then they “should” go down to the ABCD level and then attack the 50 year old trend line .. we break those levels and the corrective drop target (likes to target the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree – guideline NOT a rule) into 2K is certainly a reality. I’m blogging about this now because I have no earthly idea what would cause such a thump .. let’ face it, that’s pretty much a breakdown of the transportation sector, probably globally.
I’m going to stick w/ this count, more than likely getting proven wrong – certainly hope so …
from a technical perspective pay attention to:
- obviously, the count …
- the orange trend line (log) from the monthly, weekly – it appears that is what is holding it up
- the “nested” head and shoulders .. breaking the neckline AND the orange log trend line should start this lower
- .382 from the 90 year low 0f 13.43 is 11,277
- the BUY pattern is down around 8986-9396 –
- net, net we have two very important zones of support and then the looming trendline from 50 years ago.
hope, being a strategy, this analysis is COMPLETELY WRONG
JPM – May 04, 2023
Posted on May 4, 2023 2 Comments
Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.
No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.
on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.
If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.
LIBOR Rate – April 30, 2023
Posted on April 30, 2023 Leave a Comment
The LIBOR rate is an important gauge … for a better explanation that I can provide please see: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor.asp
Basically, it’s the rate that banks charge each other to move a “shi&t ton” of money around overnight. It’s HUGELY important .. in fact, Mr. Martin Armstrong picked up some LIBOR issues around August before COVID and it was fascinating to watch this play out – these banks are truly the gorillas juggling dynamite in the cage we jump into trading the financial markets. Oh, forgot to mention, the dynamite is lit!
I just decided to play around w/ the LIBOR chart and just started counting … now, as many of you know, my EWT counting is truly like my golf game. Sometimes, smacking it right down the middles and other times, the ball is simply no where to be seen or found. My swing (and counting) can get that bad … also, just like when you ask someone their score and they look back and start counting w/ their finger you know they are giving you a “fake news” score! So, if I get a sub wave of a sub wave of a sub wave into the counting then I’m probably just making it up. With all that being said, I really just try not to break any rules and get on the side of the MAIN wave. I LOOK for corrective patterns as they are the most reliable way to enter into a position. When we have a PATTERN and an EWT count that fits then probability does become quite high. But, you simply never know …
NO rules are broken below … sure looks like the LIBOR RATE has/is bottoming and that means, eventually, the rate the banks charge each other is going to get a LOT more expensive … could be tomorrow, could be years from you but I think this is showing a pretty clear 5 waves down so the next “trending” move is going to be: UP.
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