TSLA (update) – April 5, 2023
Posted on April 5, 2023 2 Comments
Last post on TSLA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/03/08/tsla-update-march-08-2023/
Well, the BUY PATTERN shown in the last update hit, went thru it a bit, and then started back up. If you look on this two hour chart, you can see that 5 waves up are complete from the low at (2) so, IF that (2) is correct, then expect 173-174 to hold and TSLA continues on in a 5th wave. Yes, know this sounds crazy but calling it like I see it, for now.
If we lose that lower 173-174 level then I’ll seek the “daily gap zone” as the next level to get LONG TSLA. Lot’s of math in that area …
So, either way, believe there isn’t any evidence, yet, that TSLA will continue it’s march higher either from a little lower or at the “green daily gap zone”
PHLX Semiconductor Index – April 05, 2023
Posted on April 5, 2023 1 Comment
Lot’s of fundamental information out there about China and sanctions and blah blah. Something about semi-conductors and blah blah.
So, took a peak at the PHLX Semiconductor Index and it smashed into a pretty nice SHORT PATTERN ZONE (abcd, 4 ratios, gap (small), other stuff) and, just doing some back of the envelope math, if you take the square root of the high and round up you get 64 and, guess what, 64 weeks ago was the top on January 04, 2022.
All this means is the PATTERN is complete/completing. IF/WHEN (?) we blow thru this level to the upside, then it’s a failed pattern and the SOX should run to the .786 ish and the “red crossover” a little higher and then to new highs.
But, the SELL ZONE looms large, for now …
Natural Gas/UNG – April 4, 2023
Posted on April 4, 2023 3 Comments
Last Post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/03/20/natural-gas-ung-march-20-2023/
Well, the pain cave continues as I’m keeping my position and searching for a “low” in UNG. I’ve updated the count because recent price action has gone below the low made in 2021 (UNG) but, as you can see, the futures has not broken below the low. UNG and the futures “try” to go in concert but, as you can tell, they aren’t a “perfect” one for one match.
Man, to think I was holding this puppy up at 34 and ‘expecting’ a pullback … a complete wipeout, and now a losing position to boot? This is an example of horrible investing. Period. But, I’m sticking with it as I do see a low approaching or here.
I LIKE the MONTHLY MEASURED MOVE PATTERN THAT IS SHOWN BELOW. ITS A PERFECT MATCH IN PRICE AND TIME. But, that doesn’t mean it won’t fail, of course, but these MONTHLY MEASURED MOVES don’t usually fail. In fact, I’ve really never seen it happen. No kidding.
The UNG chart shows another (my counting is like my golf game, remember?) valid count and we are completely a “b” wave that broke the low but it “should” be bottoming here or nowish … there’s a subwave count I’m watching which I will update depending on what happens over the coming days/weeks. But, either way, the next major move “should” be UP for UNG.
We are tickling the 1.05946AB=CD and the 1.732 extension from ‘a’ (purple) … basically an ABCD into a 1.618/1.732 extension SHOULD provide support for the next move up .. BUT, it doesn’t have to.
Hang in there w/ me ….
EUR.USD – April 04, 2023
Posted on April 4, 2023 Leave a Comment
Some extremely important “polarity” principles are being tested w/ the EUR.USD currency pair.
The principle is that “former support” will become resistance or vice versa. In his case, we have the low from 1985 and the low from 2000 showing former support that, now, SHOULD be stiff resistance.
If we power thru this level then the .618 retracement (note measured move orange arrow) looms as the next big resistance level.
Ultra Short QQQ (SQQQ)- April 04, 22023
Posted on April 4, 2023 1 Comment
Michael Jenkins taught me how to look for Mirror Image Foldbacks. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) – he also showed me how they are planetary in nature … essentially, whatever planet or pair (s) of planets came together at the folkback point, they will also move “out” from that point causing the same pattern to appears as a “mirror image”.
This one is pretty nice in form and time. Note the TIME component from the “foldback point” hit today and is equal. Additionally, take a peak at the “form” of the moves from the foldback point .. yup, fractals of each other.
So, go long SQQQ and wouldn’t hold it too much below the blue line as the time component on this one looks almost perfect so my “thinking” (don’t think it hurts the team Bart” is we will know pretty soon. Oh, additionally, foldbacks like this fail when/where. MOST of the time, at the foldback point. So … it will work in/around here OR not.
Lot’s of volume in this security … interesting to see the volume go up and down ….
Banks – March 26, 2023
Posted on March 26, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on the banks: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/03/13/banks-march-13-2023-updated/
Folks … can’t objectively say what “it” is but something is afoot at the circle K …
Whatever it is or isn’t we do have a pretty good line in the sand.
The chart above is “log scale” … take a look at:
- Measured move PERCENTAGE CORRECTION (red arrow)
- Percentage ABCD (blue arrows)
- Trend line
- Multiple ratios …
Let’s call that level our line in sand. If we take the chart and make it “normal” scaling that level is important and maybe a little lower. Watch that .786 retracement level!
Dollar and Stocks – March 22, 2023
Posted on March 21, 2023 2 Comments
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
Watch the dollar pattern today.
Natural Gas/UNG – March 20, 2023
Posted on March 20, 2023 2 Comments
Last post on Natural Gas: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-part-ii-february-24-2023/
Last post on UNG: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/03/13/ung-march-13-2023-update/
I am using UNG as a proxy for Natural Gas futures.
Here’s the picture on Nat Gas (hourly) continuous futures:
As you can see, we are about to hit or have hit some very important support. An ABCD, 1.27 extension and the .786. We are still “well above” the very important cycle low we ID’d above. From the futures perspective, my thesis still stands that we are, potentially, at a VERY major low for Natural Gas for years to come.
That picture is a little bit more murkier when we look at UNG:
It would be nice to keep UNG above 7.00 … the KEY to this entire pattern is the Natural Gas Futures. Remember, we are looking at a near perfect MONTHLY pattern that has been exact in PRICE and TIME.
And, as I have said, multiple times in the blogs above – the thesis is wrong or on thing ice w/ a WEEKLY close below the lows.
Bart
S&P 500 Index – March 15, 2023
Posted on March 15, 2023 Leave a Comment
Perspective … we made a higher low today. Let’ that sink in …
Now, my stance is to remain bearish and I do believe we are in the very early stages of a smashing wave 3 and, add fuel to the fire, it’s a “3rd of a 3rd” wave down. Wonderful …
Near term, the market DID NOT go up to our target up around 3956 but it did smack right into the trendline giving us the polarity principle.
Two scenarios:
- Bounce not complete and we gap up and above or move strongly into and thru the gap shown and finish the a-b-c sequence
- We did a “minor” wave 1 down and finished a “minor” wave 2 and down we go … wouldn’t be surprised to see if it closes the gap tomorrow on the open and then down …
S&P 500 (cash) – March 14, 2023
Posted on March 14, 2023 1 Comment
As expected we are rallying after completing 5 waves. If you take a peak at the (2) around 4077 that is the beginning of the wave that we are retracing. Take note, we could go all the way up to that level and still fail and the count would be valid.
Also, take note that this is only a 15 minute chart .. I’m down on a lower timeframe because I feel confident in the “big 2” at 4196 is a correct label so I’m “down in the weeds” trying to ascertain where this bounce will stall and then start back down.
My bias remains bearish and I see this as a short term bounce that needs to be shorted.
First level to take a crack at it is 3957:
- ABCD – dashed red arrows
- ABCD slams right into “measured move” (red triangle)
- 3 ratio’s
Bart's Charts 