Natural Gas Part II-February 24, 2023
Posted on February 24, 2023 3 Comments
This morning I posted the “measured move” on the Continuous Contract Nat Gas Futures from a monthly scale.
Here is the link: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-february-24-2023/
Measured Moves are the most underutilized YET most POWERFUL tool in our toolbox. I think people don’t use them because they clutter their charts w/ lagging, coincident indicators … moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators, and 1000’s of other tools. Do they work? SURE .. but, just think about it, ALL of the techniques and tools we use as chartists (even the esoteric stuff) is all contained in what? THE MEASURED MOVE.
This measured move is so nice BECAUSE it’s EXACT in both PRICE and TIME.
Add that to the count shown and the PATTERN present we have a very high probability trade. Right now, we are only risking a dollar. Trust me, we have time get into this move but the longer you wait, the more your risk will increase.
This analysis is wrong and would stop out with a WEEKLY close below 7.00.
Other “proxies” are showing amazing measured move synergy … in this case, from a percentage perspective using log scale.
Here is the “final” count I’m going w/ in regard to UNG.
Let’s add this up …
- Futures contract measured move – exact from a MONTHLY SCALE
- UNG and BOIL percentage measured moves – exact
- The 1.68179 extension hit after 233 calendar days … a Fibonacci harmonic
- ABCD hit as the same TIME the extension pattern hit
- The “count” on the way up violates no rules …
- Note, because the all time low clearly went thru the prior low we CANNOT label this as wave 2. The form/structure sure looks like a “B” wave …
Net-Net … this has all the markings of a VERY powerful beginning of a 2+ year move and right now the risk reward is 35:1.
Why not give it a shot?
Natural Gas – February 24, 2023
Posted on February 24, 2023 3 Comments
It’s been a while since I blogged about Natural Gas. And, what a ride it has been …because those of you who have been following me for a while, know that I got into UNG around 9 bucks almost two years ago and -GUESS WHAT – I’m still holding it! Yes, probably the dumbest thing I ever done because I was up a NICE 5 figures and counted and watched precipitously as it just took it all back.
Again? Why?
Because when I bought the darn thing I “felt” or “knew” that this was going to be a MAJOR low in Natural Gas and I wanted to put REAL money at risk and basically ride a multi-year wave like I do surfing.
The thrill of the great waves – this run had it!
The beat down inside w/ the ice water fist to the face – yup!
No waves at all – sure.
So, guess what, I’m riding the waves of UNG for years …
In the next post on Natural Gas I’ll go into the count and the PATTERN that was present and all that. But, for now, just check this one out. I JUST saw this last night. No kidding, going to enjoy a little sun this AM before another deluge in San Diego and GET THIS – just an hour away from me (Julian) they are forecasting 10″ of SNOW. Going to be a wild weekend … a perfect time to do some charting and, ugh, taxes.
THE POWER OF THE MEASURED MOVE … not only is this MEASURED MOVE equal in PRICE it is EXACTLY EQUAL IN TIME.
Get LONG and look to leverage/ architect a position to expire in 2027 w/ a price target of 15-16 or…not.
I know this analysis might throw some of you … but, I truly LIVE by the Measured move and the potential here is somewhat analogous to this:
Eggs – February 14, 2023
Posted on February 14, 2023 7 Comments
Eggs, perhaps a price break coming now – soon?
1.618 price projection from the 1980’s about to be hit.
GOOGL DOODLE – February 02, 2023
Posted on February 12, 2023 2 Comments
Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs. Man, what a game …well done NFL to a very entertaining and competitive event. Oh there was definitely the undertones that one would expect but, dare I say, they almost promoted THE diverse and amazing country of melting pots we are …? Maybe ?
Last, the commercials confused me a bunch. Hat tip to Breaking Bad but a lot of em’ I was left saying ” what are they trying to convey here?”
Of late, I have read and digested multiple books, episodes, podcasts, etc. of Mr. Robert Edward Grant. Folks, I encourage you to follow him and really try to understand the message he is speaking. Seriously ….
As such, I’ve taken up sketching (which I love) and squaring the circle and then adding the platonic solids and then realizing the a^2+b^2 = c^2 holds such vast and universal truths around the creation and manifestation of the universe that … I decided to just pull out the crayons and “prove” to myself the amazing harmony and geometry that exists in the markets and if WE (me included, trust me) are just PATIENT enough it will reveal itself and we will have the opportunity to manage risk and, potentially, extract money from the markets.
So, I typed in GOOGL and just started to draw … (mind you, I had never done this before, the charts are “real time” as I captured them at my leisure.
As I type this, now that its done, I can tell you that the harmony and geometry are amazing … and to think, we were taught this back in grade school.
How to draw an arc from three points ……
Take note, anyone see the likeness of an “Adams Pitchfork?” The above is the REASON the Adams Pitchfork is such a powerful tool. It essentially makes the squares and the diagonals for you aligned with the first impulse move up or down …
Anyway, how does this help us trading? For me, it just reinforces the geometric and harmonic nature of any liquid instrument. Yes, I know that this is all “after the fact.” If you have been following me for a while you know most, if not all the time, I post “real time” or as “near as real time” as possible. Tonight, it was just an exercise to show me (and perhaps some of you) the geometrical and harmony of the market … that’s all.
GOOGL just finished a pretty smashing GART SELL and it’s been straight down SO .. I’m not looking to BUY anytime soon for GOOGL.
Last, sorry I missed that GART SELL. Just haven’t been watching “the Google” very much … no reason. Just haven’t …
IWV – February 03, 2023
Posted on February 3, 2023 Leave a Comment
Same picture as IWM …
Folks, trying NOT to be a massive BULL or a massive BEAR. Just patterns …
All the hype about the bull market continuing … whatever. The way I see it, we just completed the same measured move correction as the last time.
Strength thru 251 will make me rethink “another leg down” thesis but, for now, certainly appears that the Gold, Dollar, Euro, VIX, JNK, etc. etc. patterns are working …
Banking Index – January 31, 2023
Posted on January 31, 2023 2 Comments
I’ve blogged this before and I’ll blog this again – banks lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Below you can see a “pretty clear” 5 wave count UP in the Banking Index from the 2009 lows. We do have a slight overlap of Wave 4 and Wave 1 but I’m going to go for it as it’s not on “close” and the count fits/works.
What we have here is an “almost” perfect GARTLEY SELL PATTERN on the banks.
I saw @RyanDetrik tweet about the January effect today and I do trust and admirer his work … probability is saying that we have a STRONG year this year. I’m not there, yet.
I’m 100% prepared to throw in the count for a “next move is bearish” and just hit ctrl-alt-del and erase and take a look at it with fresh eyes.
That being said .. .the DSI on Gold is SPIKED HIGH for the bulls, we have an amazing BUY pattern on the VIX, sell PATTERNS on the Banks and JNK bonds inbound and the Euro/Dollar are both finishing /finished up 5 moves. Pullback or a resumption of the move down. I don’t know but I think this move u since October is on borrowed time …
Note – where have the banks been. W/ all this bullish talk they haven’t even made a .382 retracement, yet. Hmmmmm …
WATCH THIS LEVEL ON THE BANKS TOMORROW. A daily close ABOVE 115 and this market could be off to the races. Only TIME will tell …
EURUSD – January 24, 2023
Posted on January 24, 2023 Leave a Comment
5 waves complete … wave 1 = wave 5 (blue arrows) .. initial impulse wave natural log and/or square root 8 projection … ffrequency target (good stop out if it blows thru) …1.732 extension from of wave 3- 4 (note, wave 3 = 2.236 (square root of 5) ….
all this being said, this is 5 waves UP folks so the coming pullback is one we want to BUY … for now, that’s around (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree) in/around 1.05. we’ll just have to wait and see …
Bart
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