Goldman Sachs – March 11, 2023
Posted on March 11, 2023 Leave a Comment
Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.
That buy PATTERN is a classic.
ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.
Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)
S&P 500 – March 09, 2023
Posted on March 9, 2023 3 Comments
I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!
With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.
I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.
So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.
One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …
One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.
If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.
If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.
Banking Index – March 09, 2023 (UPDATE)
Posted on March 9, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on the Banking Index: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/01/31/banking-index-january-31-2023/
Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.
All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.
Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.
Get your tinfoil hat peeps .. buckle up.
JNJ – March 08, 2023
Posted on March 8, 2023 2 Comments
Note, measured move correction takes us down another 10 bucks .. that multi-year bearish divergence has me exercising CAUTION before adding or buying any JNJ at these levels.
Let’s see what happens at 142 and the key trend line …
TSLA (update) – March 08, 2023
Posted on March 8, 2023 1 Comment
Last update on TSLA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/25/tsla-update-february-25-2023/
The move off the low down around 100 has been EXTREMELY powerful and that “USUALLY” (note quotes and all CAPS) lends to another LONG entry in/around the .382.
We have a LOT of math coming in from 170-175:
- 6 ratios
- 1.618 abcd
- fundamental frequency target
- abcd (blue arrows)
so, it appears we need to give the 170-175 BUY a shot. don’t get married to it … perhaps go in smaller than the 100 level but this is a “first chance” and from a “holding” mindset IF (always the BIG IF) my count is correct we are moving to new highs in TSLA … TBD and only TIME will tell.
US Inflation Rate – March 06, 2023
Posted on March 6, 2023 4 Comments
A case can be made for a 100+ year triangle is complete and inflation, while pulling back now, has begun a bull market? Yes, I know that sounds crazy .. but, either way, would hate to see a close above the that upper down sloping trend line …
JUNK (JNK) Bonds – March 05, 2023
Posted on March 5, 2023 Leave a Comment
The credit markets are a very important measure to monitor/watch w/ regard to equity volatility and strength. A correlation exists where deterioration w/in the Junk Bond market usually leads to or portends to weakness in the equity market and/or an increase in volatility.
We have a VERY important pattern appearing on the hourly JNK BOND ETF chart below … it’s a “near perfect” Gartley Sell Pattern. The two red arrows are showing the expected levels for resistance and, quite possibly, the beginning of the next leg down in JNK BONDS. If we get a strong close above the 93.71 level then I would consider this PATTERN FAILED. Above the old high at 94.84 and I suspect a strong and continued rally in equities.
This is one of those big flashing lights to monitor over the coming week …
IBM – February 25, 2023
Posted on February 25, 2023 5 Comments
Relative strength REALLY helps us understand the institutional flow …using basic numerator / denominator we place one security over another (it can be anything liquidly traded) and if the chart goes UP the NUMERATOR is “stronger” from a relative strength perspective and if the chart goes DOWN then the DENOMINATOR is “stronger” from a relative strength perspective.
Now, if entire market is being liquidated and the “relative strength” chart is going UP it probably means the denominator is really getting smoked and the numerator might be just getting flesh wounds. It doesn’t mean it won’t go up or go down .. it might not go up or down as fast or as slow as what its being compared to …
I like it because it helps me look for strength … IBM is showing an interesting relative strength chart:
Looks like we have some “measured moves” above … shocking, I know. As you can see, we have a nice harmonic in the red “down” arrows and, just for fun, wanted to show you the harmony pretty much across the board.
IBM, from a relative strength perspective certainly looks like it could have put in a low against the DOW. And, guess what, on a lower daily timeframe we have a PERFECT BUY PATTERN present:
Note, this BUY PATTERN lands right on top of a pretty big gap area so I do think it “should” (doesn’t mean it will !!!) offer support and a continuation of IBM’s outperforming the DOW. What happens when this occurs:
As you can see, when the ratio bottoms (makes sense) IBM goes UP UP and away …note, the BIG “liquidating” drop in the IBM/DJIA average didn’t have the same slope on the price chart. It went down, yes, but it wasn’t a knife falling. This is an example from the last pargraph.
So, here’s the chart from a while ago:
Couple takeaways, before the BIG PATTERN hit another had failed. We never know which ones work and which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. Trust me, when you have two or three fail in a row after you have used a TON of tools and hours coming up w/ a level and then the next one appears you do have your doubts but TRADE WHAT YOU SEE NOT WHAT YOU THINK! Anyhoo .. the lower “bigger” pattern worked nicely! See “buy pattern complete” to the left below.
Now, as you can see we have interesting technical issues occurring:
- Stair Steps: not a swing low has been broken on the way up .. higher lows. Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) taught me that 1-2 swing lows broken is “ok” but if a 3rd is broken, get the hell out … this coming correction will, maybe (?) test the swing low around 115. We’ll see ..
- Since the low back in early 2020, the corrections have been, pretty much, the red triangles. I’m using a triangle to show the “price” and “time” component of the corrections and “red” because it’s going down. See how that works! LOLOLOLOL. If (and it is THE big IF) we continue w/ this rhythm then the next buy isn’t until May’ish 2023. We have time …
- From the high … it is certainly “easy” (relative I know) to count 5 waves down so expect a “bounce” to occur and then one more wave down to buy. I can see that taking us into the May timeframe. Yeah?
So, it is going to be very important to watch the BUY pattern on the ratio and then compare where we are after we done a “bounce up-down” wave and then take a peak at the TIME (May perhaps) and IBM might be ready for the next leg higher.
Patience … I know.
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