USDJPY – July 06, 2023
Posted on July 6, 2023 3 Comments
Well, this is one of those that you wait, in this case almost 9 months, for the pattern to appear. I almost tried it at the ABCD but something just told me to wait. Now, we have a 1.618 price projection right on top of the lovely .786 and a bunch of other ratios.
Why is this a big deal? Because the top up at 151 was a major top. Thus … for us Fx Junkies, we need to short USD vs JPY at 146-147 and if I’m right this is going to be one heck of a ride down.
XLE – July 06, 2023
Posted on July 6, 2023 2 Comments
I’m a tad perplexed on this chart as one can make the case for some bullish action BUT I’m not even to try and count the different machinations and I don’t want to “could have would have should have” when it comes to my wave counts …
I’m picking lower simply because of the last time it did the same measured move .. it corrected about down to the blue box. That’s my kind of investing – as many of you know – I WAIT and STALK a chart for a long time before entering. So .. seems reasonable to me.
Obviously, out black neckline of the H+S present is “crucial” for the bulls as I don’t want to see a weekly close below that line or – that opens up the first target of 64-67.
From there I see the blue zone as MAJOR support and a BUY if you can wait that long …
Interest Rates – July 06, 2023
Posted on July 6, 2023 1 Comment
I posted the chart below a little while back … it’s a chart of the ten year interest rates and what I’m trying to show is that, yes, banks and a lot of people got caught w/ the rising interest rates.
Folks, it took 40 years to rise the 700 ish % .. we’ve done it in 3 and we are not done. I’m counting this as wave 5 of 1 or A. So, in the short-medium term expect interest rates to continue rising. Then of course we will get wave 2 or B and everyone will think the Fed is done tightening and that’s when the real smash will occur – a C wave or wave 3 higher? What if this is a new “bull market” in rates…? Wave 3 can’t be the smallest SO … interest rates are rising folks. Ugh.
UNG – July 6, 2023
Posted on July 6, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on UNG/Nat Gas: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/04/04/natural-gas-ung-april-4-2023/
Looks like a pretty clear 5 waves up that doesn’t break any rules … and now a nice 3 wave correction for the buys zone in the 6.60 “area.”
Again, this entire thesis is predicated on the long term MONTHLY PATTERN of the Natural Gas Futures below.
We “should” stay above 5.90 … I’m staying long until that low on NAT GAS is broken.
Island Reversals
Posted on July 6, 2023 Leave a Comment
I’ve been watching the financials, junk bonds and other important stocks …depending on the closes today. Here’s some important island reversals …
WATCH THE CLOSE:
PFE – July 05, 2023
Posted on July 5, 2023 2 Comments
Last post on PFE: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/08/04/pfe/
As shown above, the market took PFE up to the monthly ABCD and since then it’s been straight down for PFE.
That being said, looks like some pretty strong support for PFE in/around the 34-36 level.
If / when we lose that level, it appears the next “real” support is 21-23 zone.
NYSE Index – July 03, 2023
Posted on July 3, 2023 1 Comment
Just like the last post on the Banks ( https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/07/01/xlf-financials-july-01-2023/ ) the NYSE Index – an index composed of all the stocks traded on the NYSE (~5000 securities) – is tipping it’s hand and showing a VERY important SELL PATTERN.
In this case, we have ABCD in PRICE and TIME.
If this market is bearish, this sell pattern will work …
If this market is bullish, this sell pattern will fail and the band will play on …
The PRICE AND TIME aspect of this PATTERN make this one VERY important …
XLF – Financials – July 01, 2023
Posted on July 1, 2023 1 Comment
Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.
Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …
Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!
Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.
I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …
How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?
I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.
IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.
IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.
34-35.66 on the XLF.
One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.
PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL ON XLF
Ratio Analysis Time – June 28, 2023
Posted on June 28, 2023 Leave a Comment
Was over on the Top Gun options group chat working some NVDA charting and I decided to pull out some ratio analysis on the XLP and NVDA.
XLP/NVDA
Some stuff we need to consider:
- Note the red trend line connecting the lows .. it’s a perfect fit. Certainly suggests the “ratio” is about to rise which means, in the past, some heavy weight for the NASDAQ and I imagine the overall market. Hmmmm …
- Overlaid on top of the ratio (blue line) is the NASDAQ composite … take a peak at how it reacted when the ratio rose … except for one time during the 2010-2012 timeframe, it rose and so did the market. That’s pretty much it … of late, it’s “timed” the NASDAQ pretty well.
When we add up the 20 year trend line support that sure looks like it wants to hold and the ratio starts rising – the NASDAQ hasn’t necessarily been bullish during these times now, has it?
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