S&P 500 – September 14, 2023
Posted on September 14, 2023 2 Comments
Extremely important pattern appearing on the S&P 500 / ES tonight. As I was cruising the charts I noticed this SELL PATTERN on the cash S&P 500:
The reason this is so important is the most recent high is “supposed” to be the second wave / b-wave high and we “should” be going down … failing this pattern STILL gives weigh to the higher target shown and we have that BIG GAP to fill so it’s not a “sure thing” for the bulls but I live and die by the PATTERNS and this one is a nice one … if you see (not labeled) the 3 wave move to the recent high that we are shorting fits ‘nicely’ into a 2nd wave and, again, we “should” be going down in/around here and pretty much, now …
why now? let’s go to the ES
I like the “concept” of square outs as it’s pretty simple … price equals time. so xyz many points down converts to days and then you use calendar days (in this case) to project a future “square out” of price and time.
in this case, the market fell 283.75 points and, moving a decimal (trust me we can do that – go read or follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant – he’ll explain it. Too long to do here … anyway that becomes 28.3 calendar days and, from tomorrow 09/15/2023 if you go back that many days you get the low at 4350 on 08/18/2023. A “square out” takes place on the E-mini tomorrow and it’s up against a BIG resistance zone – sure looks like a short too me? Doesn’t it?
Apple (AAPL) – September 12, 2023
Posted on September 12, 2023 2 Comments
Last post on AAPL: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/07/aapl-august-7-2023/
Well folks, here’s a VERY important level for the market. We are all pretty aware that “as Apple goes, so goes the market.” Now, of course, you have the FANG and all that but Apple is pretty important.
As I was taught by Larry P – in a bull market, it’s always wise to BUY the ABCD.
Guess what – we have a PERFECT BUY set up for AAPL. And, on a daily timeframe.
Pay attention to this level .. it sure looks like a 3 wave (green arrows) move to new highs (perhaps a “b” wave” ) and now we have a 5 wave decline starting that “then” must be bought. Or, is this a wave 4 to finish a 5 wave sequence up? Welcome to Elliott Wave. 🙂
From a pattern perspective, we have a “near perfect” BUY PATTERN on APPL approaching. I would “expect” some support and if this market is bullish then perhaps AAPL will take off?
I can tell you that if we fail to the downside and this level gives away w/out even a hinkering a fight then the entire market will be under significant pressure.
So, this is why I like the PATTERNS so much. I turn off the news as much as I can … yes, I saw some news somewhere about China and the I-phone and blah blah a day or so ago but I posted the “top of the circle” weeks ago .. no idea. Folks, prove it to yourself, the news breaks w/ the cycle.
So, WATCH THIS LEVEL ON AAPL CLOSELY … it’s a big deal.
Bonds – August 22, 2023
Posted on August 22, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on bonds: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/07/30/bonds-july-30-2023/
Well, rates are spiking and bond prices are falling like a stone. Yup … and to think, folks, this is just wave one down. As discussed about a month ago, the target for this ending wave down is now around 110 is and then, still, the zone lower in the 98-103ish …Who knows, if you think about it.
IF my count is correct, THEN this will be a wave 2 in a bear market in bonds that could last years …and, if the recent wave 2 / b wave in the equities market is any barometer I believe this bounce will be BIG because the narrative of “inflation is under control” and the “fed is easing” and blah blah will come out and EVERYONE will think, that’s it and back we go to tinsel town. BONK.
Just counting … that ain’t gonna happen. Might we get some rate cuts in the upcoming bounce? Sure … Might rates naturally drift back down and blah blah blah blah – absolutely. Folks, it might seem that all is GREAT again.
But, it’s just wave 2 folks. Bonds have been going down for almost 3+ years … a 6 month to a year bounce – CERTAINLY in the cards.
So, I’m going to keep my TBT position ON as I’m going to ride all the waves (like UNG, cough cough – what the heck, why ain’t that thing moving …?) but I’ll be a BUYer of TLT for this bounce.
Why not? Nice bullish divergence on the weekly and monthly w/ some good targets. So, guess we’ll see.
NOTE: it’s getting pretty squirrelly out there … I’m pretty confident in these levels on the 30 year continuous chart. VERY in fact – one of them will stop this free fall. If they don’t, and the bonds fall right thru these levels – I’ll be shocked and awed. LOL … no kidding, the Bond market in a free fall is really an “other” on the good/other scale.
Eggs – August 17, 2023
Posted on August 17, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on Eggs: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/14/eggs-february-14-2023/
Might want to buy up some eggs … if still bullish believe this measured move will be a low for eggs and then off to the races higher?
If we blow thru these levels to the downside then a larger correction is ensuing … for now, watch the .786 and the measured move.
JNK – August 16, 2023
Posted on August 16, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on JNK: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/06/27/jnk-geometry-june-27-2023/
Well, we have a BUY PATTERN on JNK right around the “key” trend line … that’s been holding the Junk Bonds up for all of 2023 and the last quarter or so of 2022. It’s important .. doing “basic” trend line construction we can see the “minor” purple line will give us a heads up but I think Mr Red Trend line is the key … we lose that and I find it hard to get this market going higher for a while…but you never know, right?
US Dollar Index – August 14, 2023
Posted on August 14, 2023 Leave a Comment
One of my first teachers had an amazing saying and it’s one that has stuck w/ me for 15+ years. When your trading/investing – you might not realize it – but you truly are playing with giants. The amount of money flowing right now, not even while the NYSE is open is mind boggling. And here we sit, w/ our mouse at the ready and, basically, playing Cowboys and Indians as we click to enter here and then click to put the stop in … bang bang, you’re dead! LOLOLOL … man, wonder if the kids and even play that now? For those of you in the late 40’s to mid-50’s club – we had the LAST real childhood. Shoot, I STILL have my bigwheel scar on my knee. what a WRECK that was and one of my best friends, David R actually went UNDER a car as it was driving. Not a scratch … anyway, I digress.
So, I use PATTERNS to look for inflection points and then try and manage risk and put a position on …that’s my version of Cowboy’s and Indian’s …
But what Mr. Dinapoli said was “when you enter the markets you enter the world of huge gigantic gorilla’s … pause … and they are locked in a cage w/ you …pause…and they are carrying dynamite …pause …and they dynamite is LIT.
Below is my interpretation of Gorilla’s, in our cage (locked OBTW), carryingy lit dynamite:
And we can also make note that China is DUMPING our bonds and blah blah blah. This is the backdrop folks. Until we have a PATTERN (remember: work or fail) then this is all just conjecture … but the USD is on the verge of a breakout that could get it soaring. I can see why it stopped today and I would like a nice orderly pullback to get short some EURO but I really don’t know if that will come.
I don’t think one billionaire is reading this blog right now (if you are, we could use some donations for the next SUP Vet retreat if you’re out there) so it’s mostly just you and I (Joe Retail) playing Cowboy’s and Indian’s.
Either way … might be time to tighten stops, ask yourself how much you want to be drawn down in your 401K and make some adjustments.
Or … not.
TLT – August 12, 2023
Posted on August 12, 2023 1 Comment
IF my count is right … (remember, my Elliott abilities are like my golf game 😉 then we have started another move down in bond prices but I do believe this is the 5th and final wave of just the first wave down … that being said, w/ all of the “noise” and “sentiment” w/in the market about “inflation under contorl” and the “Fed is going to Ease” and “blah blah blah” I believe this is a countertrend opportunity which could bounce PRETTY BIG just based on sentiment, alone.
For now, I have the 82-85 region as the first target to end Wave 1 down … multiple confirming but non-correlated techniques are showing this to be a very important zone.
I am long TBT (inverse of TLT) and plan on keeping that position open but will also go LONG TLT and have both a long TLT and long TBT position open at the same time. I sense that TBT will be held for YEARS as interest rates are not done for the long term, at least in my VERY humbled opinion.
I like this zone because, a lot of times when the wave 3 is extended you will find wave 5 = wave 1. (FWIW wave 3 was exactly 3 times as long as wave 1 down)
