AAPL – August 7, 2023
Posted on August 7, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on AAPL: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/06/27/aapl-june-27-2023/
AAPL smacked into the 1.27 which was also a 1.618 price projection level and has broken down. In face, it has left an island reversal. An island reversal on AAPL .. who the what the?
This is a VERY interesting chart as I do think 2022-2023 was a corrective 4 … but I just don’t think AAPL is done yet so believe this pullback needs to be bought in the coming months but, for now, let’s watch the measured move area around 145.
here’s a close up/zoom in of the Island Reversal:
Bonds – July 30, 2023
Posted on July 30, 2023 2 Comments
sounds crazy, but sure looks like bonds are going to break the big support that’s been holding em’ up and, frankly, target the blue zone as shown in the below charts. Ummmm, ouch. Right? If my count is wrong, then we will go up and do another leg to finish the a-b-c corrective move BUT either way, I feel pretty good w/ the count from the “big” top above perspective so we “should” be going down in bond prices regardless of the news and then we find some pretty big support and a BIG WAVE 2 or B Wave will get everyone thinking “inflation is over” and the rates are GOING DOWN and yeah team … but, that’s just gonna be the wave 2 or the B wave … after that is the “ouch” 3rd or C wave and rates are gonna explode …
Here’s the TLT (I AM LONG TBT) look that could, realistically, get targeted over the long term. I know, hard to believe … just calling it like I see it.
Banks/Financials – July 27, 2023
Posted on July 27, 2023 Leave a Comment
Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm
Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?
Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.
WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.
The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.
for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …
below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.
the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.
pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:
Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds
US Dollar Index – July 26, 2023
Posted on July 26, 2023 2 Comments
Well, we are hearing (once again) about the death of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and all that … that will probably happen but not just yet.
Either way, we have hit a VERY important support level on the USD. Measured moves make the world go around … we hit the measured move, the long term polarity trend line and a butterfly buy. Exactly.
So, little bit of a judgment day for the US Dollar. I find it hard to “see” that the down more is over simply based on “balance, form and proportion” BUT this could be a MAJOR low in the USD. Go figure …
I’ll wait for the first BUY PATTERN to emerge and see how the dollar reacts to that …
For now, watch the downtrend line from the old high .. a breakout (daily close) above that trend line will be a good hint that probability is shifting to a big dollar low.
For now – the patterns worked – but I’m going to watch and see how this plays out.
I’m currently LONG the USDJPY via an ETF so a strong dollar doesn’t necessarily fit the USDJPY narrative I’m working w/ .. even though the USDJPY is only 14% of the USD Index (majority weighted in EURO) it still has more weighting that the USDCHF and the GBPUSD. So, this is an interesting one – for sure.
TSLA – July 20, 2023
Posted on July 20, 2023 5 Comments
Last post on TSLA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/06/07/tsla-june-07-2023/
Staying w/ the preferred count shown in green. That being said, this could be, as shown on the alternate count the beginning of an a-b-c = Y move down … so, while this gives up a lot of the move, we’ll just use the EWT correction RULE that wave 4 cannot go below the end of wave 1. That level is around 220. As long as this correction (labeling it that right now) says above that 220ish level – then it is still game on and TSLA to new highs to finish a long term 5 wave sequence.
Hope this helps.
Gasoline Futures – July 17, 2023
Posted on July 17, 2023 Leave a Comment
looks like this triangle will be resolving soon enough … prices like to “surge” out of these type of patters to …it will be pretty interesting, from a political perspective, to see which way it resolves.
spikes lower … Biden Administration has brought down inflation and lower gas prices.
spikes higher …the opposite for President Biden’s administration as gas prices spike higher in the 2nd half of his administration.
I really have no idea which way it will go …
NVDA – July 17, 2023
Posted on July 17, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on NVDA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/05/30/nvda-update-may-30-2023/
the ABCD target on NVDA has been hit on the monthly (it actually went higher and did the 12th root of 2 (1.05946) which is the ratio used to tune the equal octave scale of music) with noticeable bearish divergence on the 14 period RSI. I expect some serious resistance. If we blow thru it, then this stock can run. I will update some of the higher targets later if we below thru this level.
additionally, we can see a 3 drives to a top on the daily.
“mind the gap” – huge gap support, as shown, lower.
XLF – July 13, 2023 !
Posted on July 13, 2023 Leave a Comment
Well folks, we are at a pretty big fork in the road. The SELL PATTERN on the SPX is “close” and pretty much hit and then the XLF went up and tagged the lower end of the sell zone … gapped up and then closed at the lower end. One can see a couple small laborious machinations up and down before the SPX target is hit so we can sneak into the upper half of the sell zone before really calling the PATTERN complete and the selling to begin – or not.
If this pattern fails, it might to be early to back up the truck, but the melt up will certainly continue …
But, don’t get too excited for that to happen. SOME STIFF RESISTANCE/SELL PATTERNS PRESENT in XLF aka FINANCIALS.
Bart's Charts 