10 YR rates – October 18, 2023
Posted on October 18, 2023 Leave a Comment
The TLT trade at 84 https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/10/13/tlt-october-13-2023/ coincided to the day w/ Uranus moving 84 degrees helio. From an astrological perspective, degrees of movements of Uranus are important for bonds/fixed income – or so I am told. 😉 The chart appears heavy and certainly thought it would close below and keep rolling but .. it lived, for now. honestly, not too bullish on it but what do I know. But, that started to change when I went and took a peak at the 10 year interest rate chart – $TNX.
The bonds are in a complete route … that being said, I’m trying hard to not look at the fundamentals because 1/ I don’t understand them and 2/ I’m just a simple pattern guy.
We have confluent technical indications that the bond route “should” be coming to an end, for now. I know there is no justification for this from all the talking head pundits … but I’m just looking at the chart.
- A pretty clear Elliott Wave count showing we are in a 5th waves and it sure could be complete.
- A weekly bearish divergence in the RSI from the last peak. Yes, it’s not a lot, but it has “not” exceeded the last peak.
- Two 1.618 extensions and the most important one being from 5 years ago. They overlap almost exactly. The last one, well, that’s from the wave 3 high and, that one lies exactly on top of the first. NOTE – both of these highs we used the extension from topped in October …
- Mr. Measured Move – blue arrow
- Some other stuff
So, this is looking as the first “real” opportunity to stop this runaway train of rates … but, this train WILL GET GOING AGAIN as I’m counting this as the first wave completing/completed in a 5 wave sequence. (remember folks, wave 3 can’t be the shortest, so get ready. now that doesn’t mean it has to be long as wave 1, then it can’t be shorter than wave 5.) The characteristics of the 3rd wave usually mean that it will equal or exceed wave 1.
To put wave 1 in perspective from a percentage move it has just been a 1,483% rise in interest rates since the low. IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED.
If we blow thru this level – and, of course, why not – then it’s pretty conceivable that we could roll all the way up to the .382 from the 1981 high in interest rates. What do you know?
TLT – October 16, 2023
Posted on October 16, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on TLT: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/10/13/tlt-october-13-2023/
Not out of the woods yet but we have a very nice BUY pattern setting up on the TLT hourly. For the wave 1 to be complete, this level needs to hold.
Gold – October 15, 2023
Posted on October 15, 2023 2 Comments
Last post on Gold: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/16/gold-august-16-2023/
I did NOT get filled on my resting buy order for Gold. Will now try to work into a LONG Gold position.
If this count is correct, Gold is off to new all time highs in a 5th wave …the 3rd wave of this 5th wave is, more than likely, just starting.
USO – October 05, 2023
Posted on October 5, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on USO: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/05/21/uso-may-21-2023/
A very nice target has come into play for the BUY I’m looking for w/ regard to USO. Please see below.
Chart Summit 2023 – September 27, 2023
Posted on September 27, 2023 1 Comment
what an amazing opportunity to present w/ all the amazing technicians at the Chart Summit. JC – you’re the best …
High Yield Index – Option Adjusted Spread – September 21, 2023
Posted on September 21, 2023 Leave a Comment
My good friend Jerry over at https://growmytsp.com/ sent me a chart over last night and, using basic measured moves, you can see the “rhythm” and moves of this index. Since the low in 2022, it’s been the same percentage move UP and same percentage move DOWN. (green lines = up and red lines = down)
We are at, or perhaps a little lower, pretty significant support …
why is this important .. I’m not gong to bore you w/ fundamental analysis about credit spreads and all that when a picture paints a thousand words …the picture below is saying “when I bottom, the S&P tops.”
Junk Bonds – September 21, 2023
Posted on September 21, 2023 3 Comments
Last post on JNK: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/16/jnk-august-16-2023/
On the daily chart below the JNK gapped down today and closed below (daily) the two trendlines we have monitoring. On the “good” and “other” scale this is an “other.”
That being said, the REAL trend line that is CRITICAL is the second chart … a daily close below that and we might have the nascent beginnings of a credit event on our hands …
