INTC on the move
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: INTC is on the move breaking thru and CLOSING (KEY) at the high end of the range, above a 9 year resistance line and now testing the higher end of the bearish resistance zone on the RSI. The base it has moved up from has carved out an inverse head and shoulders in addition to basing for 10+ years. Watch this stock for leadership.
GAMEPLAN is, however hard it is, to let this move go and then look to buy the “outside return” against the neckline around 28. Initial targets are shown …
INTC WEEKLY
Now, we need to ask ourselves, how is the stock doing against the NASDAQ? This is where we go to our ratio analysis and look at the picture below … banged right off the .786 retracement level and perhaps this is a rotational play by the institutions. What a nice picture …
ratio analysis of INTC / NASDAQ
Gold game plan potential
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: prior Gold work – https://bartscharts.com//?s=gold
CLIFF NOTES 2: 1370 will be key to the last leg of a triangle, thrust DOWN and out of the triangle and then a BUY.
CLIFF NOTES 3: note the first chart. Again, it’s ratio analysis of GLD vs SPY. What we are looking for is a PATTERN to show a SHIFT in the relative strength of one security versus another. In this case, the S&P 500 has out performed, tremendously, the GLD since 08/2011. But look what just happened .. we completed a pattern at the .786 and 3 weeks ago,we found support and NOW it’s starting to move UP along w/ SPOT GOLD, ABX and the overarching Gold/Silver Index. A key development …
ratio analysis of GLD to SPY
GLD vs QQQ
GLD / DJIA
THIS IS A CHART W/ HISTORICAL PRICES SINCE 1913
gold since 1913
gold gameplan
note ABX – Barrick Gold is confirming this move … a revisit of our BUY recommendation. ( https://bartscharts.com/2014/05/21/abx-buy/ )
ABX
Gold/Silver index appears to be on par to put in a MONTHLY signal reversal candle … (https://bartscharts.com//?s=gold+silver+index )
Gold Silver Index
Sugar – that was some gap up!
Posted on June 20, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: previous Sugar work – https://bartscharts.com//?s=sugar
CLIFF NOTES 2: am going to have to go back and “see” why 16 didn’t hold but we went thru our target area by a buck and are rallying again. Most recent gap, is to say the least, pretty impressive.
Folks, looks like it’s time to get on the Sugar train.
Sugar Continuous Contract
EURO gameplan w/ FED meeting on tap
Posted on June 18, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: trust your indicators.
MONTHLY RSI (blow up) – when I use to teach the capstone CMT Level III course RSI portion I used to say “look for the key transition.” The market will tell you when it’s “shifting a grid,” so to speak. The Monthly RSI is showing us that the BEARISH RESISTANCE zone 55-65 have held every rally attempt…HOWEVER, NOTE THAT THE LOWER END OF THE BEARISH SUPPORT ZONES HAS NEVER BEEN TOUCHED AND WE HAVE HIGHER LOWS. Talk about a mind screw … the resistance zones are clearly showing a BEAR market while the lower end is almost right in between the lower zone of BULLISH support and BEARISH support ON THE RSI. Folks, that’s a triangle for you. One of the other things that I used to teach is the vaunted “RSI M” and note at current levels we have an M formed at the end of a 1.5 year leg. We have to wait for the end of the month to see if it closes below that horizontal blue line, so be patient if you are a longer term swing trader – like me. MONTHLY RSI CONCLUSION: a hint to the downside, but no major grid shift evident (a BEAR or BULL market) evident till we test the RSI support zones.
EUR vs USD Monthly RSI study
Weekly RSI: The bearish RSI resistance zone has worked, like the monthly throughout this long, consolidated 5 years. As we dove into lows at the 1.2 level notice we even went to bottom of the RSI bearish support range. BUT THEN A KEY TRANSITION OCCURRED !!! The market came down and bounced off the TOP of the RSI bearish zone (30) and then the next support range bounced right off the lower end (40) of the BULLISH RSI support zone (denoted by the green horizontal line on the RSI) Folks, this is the “grid shift” we discussed and really throws this into a neither BULL or BEAR state of affairs. An, notice the “depth” of the RSI correction in comparison to the move in price … RSI dove for the deck, price corrected buy not “that much” and we found support right on the BULLISH RSI SUPPORT zone. Folks, this is, actually a BULLISH weekly RSI indication. WEEKLY RSI CONCLUSION: oversold finding support on a BULLISH RSI support zone … a continued bounce up in the foreseeable picture?
WEEKLY RSI Study EUR vs USD
DAILY RSI: key here is as we were making HIGHER highs from Oct 2013 to present, the RSI was making LOWER LOWS …KEY IS right at the upper end of the bearish RSI zone resistance. Then, as we dove down from the highs made in May ’14, we found SUPPORT in the BEARISH RSI SUPPORT ZONE. The Daily chart is telling us we are working into a bearish break.
Given this look at the longer term RSI’s we now can state that since the highs in 09′ the BEARISH RESISTANCE ZONES have held and that has been marked by LOWER HIGHS. However, the contracting nature of the price action is such that on a Monthly and Weekly basis, the RSI transitioned to finding support in the BULLISH RSI band. In this type of situation a triangle or contracting type of price action is evident and, most everyone, get’s chopped up like the meat grinder in Pink Floyd’s The Wall.
the triangle meat grinder
in a triangle, the corresponding waves are supposed to be .618 of each leg the proceeded it … in this case our UP moves are .886 (exactly) and .618 that makes up the “e” leg of this potential scenario. This is important … please see below:
EURO bearish triangle
also, note that from the high we traced a 5 wave move down (bold blue lines) that do not break any “counting rules.” So, the ramification is this is 2nd or perhaps B wave triangle completing and we are starting a 3rd of 5 down or a C wave. Time will tell …
So what do we do to position?
1. there is a “minor” pattern completing in/around 1.3620. I don’t like this because the pattern “isn’t complete” w/ regards to C
2. we have a flat completing around 1.3680. that “could do it” but w/ the FED talking a BIG OLE’ BUY program could rip this thing 100-1550 pips easily.
I would expect each of these areas to be resistance zones but …
3. I really like the 1.3800 area due to a LOT of numbers coming together and the “pattern” completing and making sense.
EURO 4 hour intraday
My “hope” is that we do not break thru the lows but RALLY UP into the targeted short zone….guess only time will tell but here is a pretty well thought out gameplan.
Enjoy the ride …
WYNN should go back to 175
Posted on June 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
here is the work leading up to the HIGH in WYNN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=wynn
here is an updated look … case can be made for a move back to 172-176. Note the swing lows …
WYNN
FXI and Copper
Posted on June 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the key w/ PATTERNS is they enable one to make adjustments, develop gameplans and manage risk. In this case, we have a SELL pattern appearing on FXI. The correlation w/ Copper is pretty high. In our last post we showed the “probability” is HIGH that the Copper will fail the support level at 3.0. If that is the case, THEN the SELL patterns on FXI should work. (remember, every market moment is unique and it’s all probability) However, based on the synchronization shown below there is nothing that should cause a major divergence so let’s see who will win out ….
- Will the FXI bust on thru to the upside and therefore cause support to continue to hold on the Copper? Even though the LONG TERM COUNT shows a convincing argument for a MAJOR 5 waves complete on Copper? Or, will Copper fall below 3.0 and start down enabling the targets shown on FXI to hit and cause selling to resume attacking the 30 support level?
Stand by ..
Copper Script Part II
Posted on June 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the probability is high that we break the key support line in/around 3.0 that has been holding copper up since 2010.
CLIFF NOTES 2: here is the link to the “Copper Script Part I” to watch how a BUY was recommended in the midst of the crash in 2009: https://bartscharts.com/2013/12/20/the-copper-script/
Note, a potential gameplan is shown by the light blue lines …
Copper Continuous Monthly
Last call .. shots of XLE being served at the bar!
Posted on June 14, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: a picture does paint a thousand words. So there are some pictures below. I’ve included the chaos that was 2009 just to demonstrate that, guess what, at the lows in 2009 a BUY appeared on the XLF (Financials) and guess what … when I was Chief Technician for the When 2 Trade Group we put out a piece to BUY THE XLF. Did anyone in there right mind want to do that …? Of course not. Same reason why NOBODY in their right mind wants to sell out and miss any of the last couple percentages of this run.
CLIFF NOTES 2: if you look at the count below, do realize that 2 does go below 1 a couple times BUT NEVER CLOSES BELOW. Folks, that’s good enough for me. Then we roll thru wave 3 not being the shortest and 4 not going below the end of 1 and all RULES are satisfied for this count. What’s that tell us? A good case can be made that we are in the 5th wave for the XLE. And, w/ the sentiment at RECORD HIGHS and the IRAQ situation and the blah blah this puppy has the potential to explode like a shake and bake handshake!
CLIFF NOTES 3: our minor target is hit in/around 97-98 and closed at the “high range” of the weekly candle. That usually denoted strength so we can “assume” the higher target in/around 105-110’s is in play. As far as patterns go … that one is a very nice LONG TERM pattern. If/when XLE does top it will signify the circle of life w/ regard to sector rotation is complete. WATCH THIS TARGET AREA.
CLIFF NOTES 4: go back and look at my “Swing Low, Sweet Chariot” post a couple weeks ago. Swing lows need to be broken before any bull should throw in the towel.
Enjoy the weekend and Happy Fathers Day out there to any fathers out there.
Bart
Here’s the XLF Recommendation. NOTE THE DATE! 😉
W2TG Tech Rating Chg XLF SB030309
Here’s the PATTERN and the picture as it appeared on March 03, 2009. Note, the CLOSE was 6.18. (.618 for any of those Fibonacci challenged)
XLF and the importance of sector rotation.
here is the picture now, note where XLE (Energy) sits in the sector rotation model:
some more chart work on XLE, key here is notice the volume below is significantly lower than the march into the highs in 07-08.
here is our good old RSI ..a work horse in any technicians tool kit. NOTE – and this is probably our biggest “hint” of things to come – NO TOP IN THE XLE HAS BEEN MADE SINCE IT’S INCEPTION W/OUT THE PRESENCE OF BEARISH DIVERGENCE. Does that mean one of our targets can’t get hit and it falls like a stone. NO. But the PROBABILITY is in our favor that the XLE will hit a target, back off and drive the RSI off it’s highs THEN price will go up and seek a new high and the RSI will fail to make a higher high and THEN we can look for major inflections. Also note – in 2008 it took 8 weeks for the XLE to top and finally crack. In today’s day and age of texting, twitter, digital addiction can you sit on a position and get chopped up for 2 months waiting? Probably not …
RSI on XLE – note divergence is usually present at inflection points
BE PATIENT … full disclosure I have been waiting over a YEAR to short the EURO. Just my style and I know once I jump into the cage w/ the gorilla’s juggling dynamite the die is cast, so to speak.
My former business partner and friend told me his grandfather offered sage advice …
“in this game, you need to just SEE and FEEL that there is money in the corner and you just go and pick it up.”
XLE LOG SCALE
Here is a “quick look” at the trend lines and rhythm of this security. Note, the key to the entire thing is the first impulse move UP from the low. Use that to set the geometry.
XLE GEOMETRICAL trend lines
here are some more targets being generated … note the placement of the LOWS in the CENTER of the square.
Dow Jones Transports and the Major Seventh …
Posted on June 12, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: more than likely, you saw my long term transports post a couple months ago and as this target got attacked I was truly looking for a “little” resistance. I mean, come on, it was the ALL TIME LOW to the “old” ALL TIME HIGH and we have a 1.618 extension RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LEVEL. As patterns go .. this was a doozie. However, as patterns go, it failed. Folks, it didn’t even put up a fight …
so, I hit “erase all” on the chart and, quite frankly, left it alone. the joy of patterns and charting …
I went back to it tonight and I still think we have a pattern forming so I went back and said “self, what did it do the last time we surged past an old high and into a new high? Well, guess what? It surged thru the 1.618 extension in 2007-2008 an stopped on the 1.8877 extension! TILT … 1.8877? Well, that is exactly a major seventh ration in the equal octave scale of music. So .. perhaps it did that again? Please see below …we smacked into the minor and, quite frankly, the major is still out there. However — this sure looks like a MONTHLY 3 DRIVES TO A TOP pattern.
Keep the mindset (defensive) of ‘breaking a swing low’ …until we do break a weekly or monthly swing low this puppy will still keep running but if we break 2 or more weekly swing lows … we could see this thing drop to the old highs at 5600. Stay tuned …
What a run! Hugh?
Also, please be advised that a reader corrected me on the price and time of the old time low. I did some more research and it appears the low was in the 1930’s around 30 points lower than the one in the late 1800’s. Negligible when we are up at 8000 BUT extremely important.
When you look at the Yahoo Finance Chart below – try to disregard this is the entire life cycle of the Transports – and just look at the symmetry of the 3 drives to a top pattern that is appearing.
notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top
monitoring the top 10% weighted sectors ….
Posted on June 12, 2014 Leave a Comment
I really liked this post: https://bartscharts.com/2014/03/16/swing-low-sweet-chariot/
CLIFF NOTES: our PATTERNS have been hit across the board in the top weighted sectors of the S&P. However, doesn’t mean a darn thing till the swing lows are taken out. Review the post above …
