Tag: KBW

KBW – June 16, 2025

KBW has very strong targets higher … needs to take out the old high fro a couple months ago – is it going to?

My last post on the KBW showed 139 as the key resistance based on a measured move target. The high being hit on February 7, 2025.

Here’s the link to that post: https://bartscharts.com/2025/01/06/kbw-january-6-2025/

That top, in/around 139-140 is SQUARED OUT on 06/26/2025. Keep an eye on that date.

Here’s a chart from a while ago (October 19,2021) showing how, even though time has passed, the targets still remain:

Here’s the most recent price action on a Monthly … if we take the most recent swing high at 139-140 out to the upside then do believe we have a VERY strong target in the 155 area and the 160-162. YES I WILL BE WATCHING 161.8 for the resistance. 🙂

Explanation:

  • Blue arrows – represent PRICE measured moves and have been responsible for every up and down move w/in this security. IF (still need to continue surging higher (I DO NOT know if we will or we won’t) we take out the highs then 155 and then 160-162 is the target.
  • 59/18 is a calculation of the fundamental frequency … that target is much higher in the top right.
  • The black solid and dashed lines are projections … notice the dashed black line lands right where the blue measured move vector ends. 155.
  • There are extension targets and the initial impulse move projection is 3.142 AB=CD.

This ‘should’ be very strong resistance for the KBW. Only time will tell.

Remember, we still need to take out the highs … not sure if will do that. Who knows …

KBW – January 6, 2025

KBW SELL PATTERN complete …

Need to watch the KBW here … take note of the two levels below which represent “gap support.” As long as KBW stays above these two support zones (expect the first to give away) then we are good to go …the BIG gap support is the key for me. That “should” hold if we are still very bullish …just because we lose it doesn’t mean the insanity of the “top of all ages” and “blah blah blah” is here. No, if you’ve been following this blog we’ve expected this level to be resistance for the equities …

As you have heard me say before – banks / financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.

Don’t get confused w/ the ‘arrows’ on the chart – they are “measured moves” and they are the harmony that causes the market to bounce around …

KEEP AN EYE ON KBW and the Banks/Financials … this SELL PATTERN on KBW has hit and has held.

Last, apologize for missing this SELL PATTERN – I simply had not looked at the KBW in a while and not until today.

The YEN – October 13, 2024

The Yen hasn’t budged and crept a little higher towards the sell patterns. I imagine this week will be judgement day.

Last update on the Yen complex: The Yen – October 4, 2024.

Just over a week ago, I posted about the cautionary signals and multiple sell patterns forming in the Yen against the major currencies and a commodity-based currency (the Australian Dollar).

None of these patterns were triggered.

There’s a lack of momentum in the Yen market right now; typically, a trending market in the Spot FX space would have activated these patterns easily. Interesting development…

My point is, although we’re still climbing the wall of worry to reach new all-time highs in the equity markets, I think these Yen patterns against the majors need to fail. If they don’t, and the Yen strengthens across the board, it could become challenging for global equity markets to sustain their upward trajectory.”

And, here is the XLF and KBW Banking Index …

XLF is about to smack into MAJOR resistance. I’ve labeled em’ for your edification but the important one for me is the 4.236*AB = CD as that can usually signify the ‘end of a move’ as MSJ taught me. That has confluence w/ the 1.618 extension. Pay attention to that level …

KBW ‘popped’ from a triangle which usually (not a rule, just a nice to know of EWT) happens at the end of a 5th wave. A little higher is another projection/retracement level. This one isn’t a ‘no brainer’ but it has closed above the resistance which had held for a LONG time. Is it a trap? Guess we’ll have to wait and see …

NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) is about 3% from the next major target. No kidding, this is the biggest outlier for me as the 1×1 trendline from the all time low didn’t even cause a blip …

So there you have it. Yes, we very well could be exploding parabolically into new highs for the next couple of years. Yup … but, I’m not all in the boat, yet. Let’s smoke some YEN PATTERNS first and then, I’ll be a believer.

For now, I’m cautious.

JPM – May 04, 2023

Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.

No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.

on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.

If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.

Banking Index – April 24, 2023

Last post on the Banking Index: https://wordpress.com/post/bartscharts.com/21122

Well, guess you can say “here we go” or “lets get it on” (cue UFC John McCarthy) …

Banking index has complete the ABCD from the low and the “scary” times … it’s all good, correct? Well, guess we will just have to wait and see.

Next stop: 66-68 or lower. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see, right?

Longer term targets below …

note, the next chart is LOG SCALE