Tag: commodities

Silver – November 2, 2025

Gameplan for Silver.

I still see one more leg higher.

I’m also holding off, for now, on a long term count.. Why? Well, I told you NOT to trust my counting even though I do try. Remember, it’s all about the corrections – learn THOSE. Anyway, I see a VERY bullish count after these 5 waves complete but I don’t believe it. Right now, whatever wave this is or isn’t in the BIG SCHEME of things, I can see, pretty easily (which is scary) this as a wave 3 top – we are now correcting in a wave 4 – and then after this pullback we launch to new highs …

A nice ‘buy zone’ is appearing … this is what I’m monitoring to go LONG SILVER.

Below the lowest red horizontal line will, more than likely, lead to a loss as I just don’t see it going any lower than this BUT it’s all probability.

Last, note the how we are having the measured move corrections (red arrows) land right on the past .618 price projection. You’ve hard me say “remember the past price projections” as they count also! That’s a good first target and then, in this leg that I’m counting, we have 3 overlapping ratio’s along w/ structured polarity (resistance becomes support and support becomes resistance – polarity, yin-yang, divine feminine – divine masculine, good vs evil, light vs dark – this is a game of polarity folks – inhale, exhale.) on top of that confluence level. This looks nice …

5 waves down – A wave.

3 waves up – B wave (complete or a little higher)

5 waves down in a pretty nasty C wave into the buy zones as shown

BUY into new highs …

Cheers – Bart

Metals – September 21, 2024

Across the board, the metals are hitting big sell signals. As is the case w/ PATTERNS, we really DO NOT know which ones will work and which ones won’t … but when they all pretty much lineup like they all are now, then something ‘big’ usually occurs.

Mind you, the ‘big’ can be PATTERN failures across the board (the sell signals all fail w/ a daily close above the levels shown below) OR the PATTERNS work and the metals are at a pretty big inflection point and …down they go.

This is a VERY interesting time w/ regard to the ‘circle of life’ (fixed income, FX, equities (global and CONUS) and commodities) … it’s really not a simple bet right now.

I posted yesterday about Gold. I mean, folks, it really doesn’t get any better than this. Long term ABCD’s are BIG DEALS. That, coupled w/ the rest of the metal sell patterns shown below, will make you realize that this is THE inflection point for the next couple months or, perhaps, year (s).

Gold: https://bartscharts.com/2024/09/19/gold-september-19-2024/

Silver:

Copper – BTW – where is Copper? W/ the move occurring in the equities, shouldn’t copper be following? It’s barely made a .382 – hmm. PS – this is a VERY nice PATTERN – ABCD, .382+.618 confluence and 1.4142 extension.

Palladium:

UNG – Natural Gas – catch the next wave?

last post on NAT GAS / UNG: https://bartscharts.com/2021/11/01/ung/

the game plan/strategy is to BUY the first PATTERN in a “new” trend and if it works then probability is that the trend change is real …

Energy, Ags, etc. are exploding of late and GLOBAL shortages that are becoming apparent pretty much every day are REAL. so, if one thinks (trade what you see not what you think) that Nat Gas prices are due to continue to rise then we have UNG that will give you exposure.

if we break thru the low at 13 then I would consider this a failed pattern but we have some MAJOR support coming in/around 15 for the BUY to get long nat gas and, perhaps, hold this position for a LONG time …

it’s all probability folks …

below, you will see a MONTHLY on UNG since inception. wanted to post this chart so you could see why I wrote the above .. have we broken out in Nat Gas? have we begun a new bull trend? full disclosure, I’m long UNG down in the single digits and will be looking to ADD to my position at this pattern completing – if it ever does.

take note of the volume picking up and the fact that the RSI is at it’s highest level .. the key here, in the coming ongoing pullback, is where the RSI finds support … if we find support on the BULL ZONE (around 40ish) then we can start giving our change in trend some more probability … but, for now, we are speculating that a very investable low is in place .. don’t throw the farm at this one .. nibble at it … as we will see the breakout occur and there will be more time to get LONG if the “low in place” thesis is correct.

additionally, the “length of the base equals the price target potential is also nice here .. we’ve been basing for 6 years and, if you want to split hairs probably 10 years once that low was put in place 2012. bottom line, if this things goes higher, it’s going to go ….

another way to check trend is via long term LOG charts .. LOG’s help you understand rates of change and are very good at giving first hints of big changes in trends or inflections …in looking at this on the long term log scale, certainly appears to have broken the long term log trend line …

last, when you are building a position, it’s wise to see how “strong” or “weak” that security is compared to high fast flyers .. in this case, for no other reason than randomness, I chose UNG/NFLX.

yup, Natural Gas has out performed (on a relative strength basis) NFLX for all of 2020

there you have it …

manage the risk.

Bart

Dr. Copper – UPDATE

Update 02/23/2021 – the “sell zone” failed but, if you do look at the chart it basically held copper at bay for approximately 7-8 weeks, then exploded higher, just like the stock market. the past couple days I’ve been posting a LOT of 5 counts and took a peak at copper and smacked right into another higher target … yes, we have some strong thrust into this zone it’s something to take notice of ….. why? If the 5 counts are actually ending then this current level is what should hold copper, it’s that simple. If copper explodes higher, which it most certainly can, then I am hard pressed to find a reason for the equities to go down.

note – WATCH THIS COPPER LEVEL!

a common relationship exists based on 1.618*the wave. in this chart just hit that target, exactly

Copper,/ below, smacked right into the “SELL ZONE” … why is Copper being blogged about? Isn’t that a “who cares” type of metal? Ummmm, no. the inflection that occurs in copper has occurred in the stock market, as shown, on every major pivot since 2009, at a minimum. /

so, this “zone” is very important …. watch copper in the coming days/weeks to get a “feel” for the overall health of the market.

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if you’ve been following my blog you know I’ll say “I love Elliott Wave, when it works…!” for Copper it certainly has. one of my first blog posts was about absolutely nailing the low at 4 by using, you guessed it, Elliott Wave.

is it going to work again … I really have no idea. that being said, if we follow the standard Elliott corrective construction, certainly looks reasonable that Dr. Copper is finishing a trend defining “b wave” and, just perhaps, a monstrous “c wave” cometh ….

DBA – a target finally hit …

long term BUY targets being hit on the commodity ETF DBA

the first target zone we have been watching for a LONG time was hit on the DBA ETF last week. note, we also have other targets in the 12.70′ ish area but, as far as long term targets being hit – DBA has hit them. a low risk BUY in today’s climate.

note, when looking at the composition of the DBA ETF, discovered that the largest holding at 14% is CLTL or an inverse bond fund. Interesting … other than that we have the typical coffee, soybean, corn, sugar, cocoa, wheat, cattle and hogs … not that much volume but if your not a futures player then this is an opportunity to get a broad basket of commodities in your portfolio.