Trade / Investment of the Year?
Posted on August 18, 2016 1 Comment
you wait, patiently, for opportunities to appear which “change the game.”
as many of you have been following me know, the swing patterns that we watch take some time to develop … in this case a thesis is made for the “trade of the year” to be SHORT EURO vs USD.
what do we have working?
here you go …
note, the MATH stopped the decline of the EURO and we are carving out – almost exactly – the same pattern that appeared at the all time low of the EURO after it was introduced. if you take the time to measure the moves …(I have) you’ll find the swings are almost exact. the LAST TIME the EURO did this it EXPLODED in a multi-year advance that crushed the dollar. is that going to happen again …?
have no idea … but the “rule” from the great land of the CMT is that the consolidated triangle breaks in the direction of the trend going into it …so, in this case, the EURO “should” breakdown against the USD. As shown from the lows in early 2000 .. it certainly didn’t do that. but here’s the daily … and remember the triangle has 5 legs labeled a,b,c,d,e ..
here’s the dollar index pattern:
note we have an AB-CD present, a .618/.786 overlap and a 1.612 extension present. THIS COULD BE THE SUPPORT TO CATAPULT THE DOLLAR HIGHER …just a pattern.
it’s just a pattern but the probability that we are in the final ‘e’ leg of the 1.5+ year consolidation of the EURO is high … this is POTENTIALLY a monster move coming ….
let me know if you have any questions …
B
PS – here’s the geometry of the consolidation .. one line oriented w/ price and time and 90 degree angles created this trend line. (I am writing this before I draw it – cheers)
IF you take the time to study this – and why not if you subscribe to my blog you’ll find that MOST if not ALL the major pivots occurred around the construction of this simple square.
Here’s a great picture from Mr. Joe Dubs:
here’s the monthly square:
again, only one line created these trend lines and it was the low to high and then 90 degree angles. folks, take the time, defy human nature and prove it to yourself …look at the geometry present.
the other thing you can do, if you REALLY want to dig deep is to use the box height and widths to create the time cycles present in the EURO or any security. but I’m tired, it’s late …just think A^2+_B^2=C^2. perhaps there was something to Pythagoras and the Music of The Spheres …or not.
Bart
Social Media Strategy ($SOCL) – updated
Posted on August 14, 2016 Leave a Comment
08/14/2016 – as discussed below, we did appear to carve out a wave IV and the 15-16 level did hold. now we have a set of targets appearing for the $SOCL media index.
08/29/2014: social media is REAL, it makes a DIFFERENCE and it is developing business models that are changing the landscape. I believe in this space …however, all that being said – I believe in PATTERNS more! 🙂 So, throughout 2014 I have been watching the $SOCL mutual fund. (please see: http://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/small-cap-funds/global-x-social-media-index-fund/socl for more detailed information. It’s not equally weighted but it does encompass a nice landscape of the social media space players. As you can see from the charts below a well defined 5 waves up led to the correction into the middle of the year. From there we have bounced nicely right into the zone of 20-21 which “should” offer resistance and another move down. Here’s the rub … the 1,2,3,4,5 was excellent and warned, nicely, of a coming correction. Please see this chart:
NOTE – going to call the last high a 3 and see this move ongoing taking out a new high
see the change …. ? You know what … I’m going to start the count a little early and note that the recent high was 3 so, w/ the rampant bullishness of the equity market and that it can’t even correct 5 % I’m going to put a “new count” out there to make it go up to make a new high. So, if we can get an intraday pattern to BUY why not give it a change. will be watching …
04/28/2014: expect 14-15 to maybe be support but the 5 wave sequence is complete and I consider this space done for a while …My last post on SOCL is below. Missed it by a buck:
EURGBP set up and the form, proportion and harmony behind it
Posted on August 13, 2016 Leave a Comment
want to take a little time this AM to describe the set up coming in on the EURGBP:
- from the all time high, we are coming up into the .618 retracement along w/ the AB=CD projection
there is a lot of thrust coming into this level – but if we break it down into a lower time frame compression we have a very balanced move in form, proportion and balance:
- fundamental frequency: think of a rock hitting the water. how high, how heavy and how high all take into account the depth of the rocks penetration into the water and the corresponding waves which will be produced. to calculate the fundamental frequency targets we use the initial impulse high and low and we get targets (shown by dashed red and purple lines) of .80378 and .86847.
- Note the purple dashed line target when it was hit at 3. Caused big resistance.
- Also, if we PROJECT the initial move labeled 1 and multiply it’s length by PI (3.142) we get right into .87386.
- I am showing a 1,2,3,4,5 (big numbers) and also showing minor 1,2,3,4,5 in the 5th leg.
- also, note the symmetry of the moves shown by big wave 3=5 and minor 1=5.
- Last, a 1.27 extension of the last swing into the .618 retracement.
also, believe this is a countertrend move .. either a wave B or 2 correction coming.
THESIS: short EUR vs GBP in/around 8707-8746. risk 50 pips …normal corrections have been roughly 400-500 pips. Thus a RR of 8:1 or 10:1.
worth it?
It’s just a PATTERN and nothing else but it’s something to pay attention to
Posted on August 9, 2016 Leave a Comment
PATTERNS … work and they fail.
PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.
PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..
What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?
That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….
IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.
so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.
Pay Attention ….
Bart
PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon. No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern. TRADE IT or NOT.
PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago. 21708/10 = 2170.8. Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME. “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences. An FYI …
I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update
Posted on August 7, 2016 Leave a Comment
August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking? Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned. the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT? watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.
Bart
6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
Great British Pound – the BUY case
Posted on August 6, 2016 Leave a Comment
August 6, 2016
since the HUGE MONTHLY 31 year .78 node the pound move roughly 700 pips (note in 5 waves) and has been consolidating for a month.
take a look at the BUY PATTERN present in the GBP a little lower … they don’t get better than this. What does that mean?
well after a 31 year .786 node of support we have a Gartley BUY occurring. all it means is it MIGHT work and it MIGHT not ..
I like the fact that it’s been working/consolidating for a bout a month .. that means the moon is at play! 🙂
wow .. what an amazing vacation in the Outer Banks this past week. W/ a clear head, I open my charts this AM ..
so, the Pound found support on a 31 year .786 retracement…it “should”. But, as we know, it doesn’t have to hold – at all. But so far it has …
now, if you’ve been following my blog you’ll find that this 30 year support in the 1.35-1.38 zone should not become resistance – polarity principle.
as for me, I’m going to look for a buy pattern (nibble) – folks – this is roughly 1000 pips away so, while it doesn’t look like much on the Monthly chart – it certainly could be a sizable rally right into the “wall of china” polarity principle.
hope you had a great week ….get some.
B
Bart's Charts 