Housing … just keep your head in the sand OR are the clouds forming?
Posted on September 5, 2016 Leave a Comment
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
- this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27. Big support …
- also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
- THOSE are the levels to watch …
- sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
Have you ever been in a draw down?
Posted on September 4, 2016 1 Comment
Note the title of this post … I know draw down and it hits you to the core. The reason I bring this up because, once again, I’m taking a hard look at the USD vs JPY. Why drawdown’s and the YEN? Well, because as a CTA I went into my first draw down – EVER – trying to go long the USD vs JPY in/around 75. TILT – all the way back down at 75? YES all the way down at 75. For those of you beginning this journey, you’ll say to yourself “you suck.” And for those of you who have been at it for a while you said “you’ll come away stronger …” I NEVER risk more than 1-2% on a trade … I didn’t then, I DO NOT now, but I lost something like 8 times in a row and went into an 18 percent draw down. It sucks … so anytime I start looking at the YEN I say “you sure you want to do this …?” YES, I DO and WILL ….
so, I really really like my count up at 125 …. and I really really like the long and deep retracement we are having. the question we have in front of us is … is this the end of it?
Michael Jenkins taught me his 1/8th Signal Reversal Candle technique – it’s SO SIMPLE yet the theory behind it’s so advanced. Let’s keep it simple:
- go to a weekly or monthly and look for the SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE. In this case, the LOW of the HIGH candle is taken out on close.
- from there simply subdivide that candle and bracket it w/ 7/8ths or .875. when you get to the last 1/8th division that SHOULD be big time support.
- note, in this case it was … try it, you’ll like it.
Here’s what I DO NOT like ... I DO NOT LIKE that the rally UP has been a clear three waves …so, crap that says one more low on the USD vs JPY. SO I WAIT … WHAT AM I MISSING HERE? 🙂
Great British Pound – the BUY case
Posted on September 4, 2016 Leave a Comment
September 4, 2016
the Pound held the .786 and has rallied around 700-800 pips. Now, we find ourselves rolling up into the former 2009 support zone w/ a bunch of patterns coming into play. this should act as major resistance and the start of another leg down in the Pound vs USD.
just a pattern …
August 6, 2016
since the HUGE MONTHLY 31 year .78 node the pound move roughly 700 pips (note in 5 waves) and has been consolidating for a month.
take a look at the BUY PATTERN present in the GBP a little lower … they don’t get better than this. What does that mean?
well after a 31 year .786 node of support we have a Gartley BUY occurring. all it means is it MIGHT work and it MIGHT not ..
I like the fact that it’s been working/consolidating for a bout a month .. that means the moon is at play! 🙂
wow .. what an amazing vacation in the Outer Banks this past week. W/ a clear head, I open my charts this AM ..
so, the Pound found support on a 31 year .786 retracement…it “should”. But, as we know, it doesn’t have to hold – at all. But so far it has …
now, if you’ve been following my blog you’ll find that this 30 year support in the 1.35-1.38 zone should not become resistance – polarity principle.
as for me, I’m going to look for a buy pattern (nibble) – folks – this is roughly 1000 pips away so, while it doesn’t look like much on the Monthly chart – it certainly could be a sizable rally right into the “wall of china” polarity principle.
hope you had a great week ….get some.
B
Bank of America SHORT pattern
Posted on September 4, 2016 1 Comment
sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t …
@seeitmarket w/ TLT and a quick look at the 30 year …
Posted on September 3, 2016 Leave a Comment
9/3/2016 – have been doing some work over @seeitmarket w/ Andy and the gang here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/defensive-sector-etfs-hit-targets-reversals-next-tlt-xlu-16014/
also, note the breakdown on Friday of the 30 year support .. this is looking very heavy.
here’s an update to the charts:
EURGBP set up and the form, proportion and harmony behind it
Posted on August 28, 2016 Leave a Comment
8/28/2016 – looks like it’s going to carve out 5 waves and then a 3 wave pullback and then another leg down …so a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) correction to be BOUGHT. the reason I believe this is because we had a 5 wave move UP against the POUND here …
guess we’ll see, anyway, here’s the 4 hour chart updated. note, the “target zone” worked pretty well.
for you Sunday thought of the day … why, if you look below, did ALL THE WORLD stopping going LONG the EURO vs the GBP and, basically, reverse their emotional feelings about the EUR vs the GBP and flip the switch?
I would submit – vibrations my friends. vibrations which are governed by music. I digress.
B
want to take a little time this AM to describe the set up coming in on the EURGBP:
- from the all time high, we are coming up into the .618 retracement along w/ the AB=CD projection
there is a lot of thrust coming into this level – but if we break it down into a lower time frame compression we have a very balanced move in form, proportion and balance:
- fundamental frequency: think of a rock hitting the water. how high, how heavy and how high all take into account the depth of the rocks penetration into the water and the corresponding waves which will be produced. to calculate the fundamental frequency targets we use the initial impulse high and low and we get targets (shown by dashed red and purple lines) of .80378 and .86847.
- Note the purple dashed line target when it was hit at 3. Caused big resistance.
- Also, if we PROJECT the initial move labeled 1 and multiply it’s length by PI (3.142) we get right into .87386.
- I am showing a 1,2,3,4,5 (big numbers) and also showing minor 1,2,3,4,5 in the 5th leg.
- also, note the symmetry of the moves shown by big wave 3=5 and minor 1=5.
- Last, a 1.27 extension of the last swing into the .618 retracement.
also, believe this is a countertrend move .. either a wave B or 2 correction coming.
THESIS: short EUR vs GBP in/around 8707-8746. risk 50 pips …normal corrections have been roughly 400-500 pips. Thus a RR of 8:1 or 10:1.
worth it?
SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015 to the update 8/27/2016
Posted on August 27, 2016 Leave a Comment
08/27/2016
the ratio projections shown below nailed the high (recent) in SBUX
we now find the ratio sitting on a cliff of support – above the support SBUX should start to improve.
below the cliff of support then expect SBUX to continue it’s downward slide.
it’s not about the ACTUAL prices in SBUX and Coffee but the relative strength of coffee prices and SBUX.
let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
here’s the cliff of support for the future on a weekly chart:
Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion. However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio. There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end. With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short. Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below. HAPPY HUNTING ….
Bart
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009
one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?
first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line
I don’t see much of a correlation …..
How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES? THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?
now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX. SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …
Is the ratio hitting some targets? Ummmm, yes.
so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO. Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.
Bart
It’s just a PATTERN and nothing else but it’s something to pay attention to
Posted on August 27, 2016 Leave a Comment
08/27/2016 – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.
again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.
rock on, ok?
PATTERNS … work and they fail.
PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.
PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..
What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?
That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….
IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.
so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.
Pay Attention ….
Bart
PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon. No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern. TRADE IT or NOT.
PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago. 21708/10 = 2170.8. Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME. “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences. An FYI …
