so … who is eating who?
Posted on October 19, 2021 1 Comment
last post on current market conditions: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
- the PATTERNS have failed
- Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
- NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
- Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
- XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
me?
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes it eats you …
Posted on October 17, 2021 1 Comment
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
all probability …
Goldman Sachs
Posted on October 17, 2021 Leave a Comment
we had a VERY nice pattern coming in around the 370’s and it’s basically failed.
as you can see the high was a 1.27*ab=cd but w/ this strength thru the lower pattern that failed, would WAIT for a daily close below 372 before putting any type of short out there …
w/ the strength in the financials and the Banking Index (shown below) I would be hard pressed to put a short on w/ regard to the banks until the target above is hit … we hit that target, could be game on.
FUTU – update to the update
Posted on October 17, 2021 Leave a Comment
looks like a nice clean break and failure at the AB=CD on FUTU.
next stop sure looks to be right around 50 …
last post on FUTU: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/05/12/futu-updated-target/
LIT ETF for Lithium
Posted on October 11, 2021 Leave a Comment
most people think “equities” and that’s it … there are many asset classes that are just starting multi year (decade (?)) runs …so while stocks are correcting and seem to be pretty stretched taking a look at the current environment and just looking at the news we can see their is a BIG battery shortage coming.
usually, a shortage means higher prices … LIT has been on a tear, up almost 380% in the past 1.5 years…. I haven’t even been paying attention till my two Rugger buddies were texting about it last week.
I found an ETF, LIT, that looks pretty liquid and has been on a tear …
trying to get into a moving market is hard to manage risk so, for now, looking for a correction to try and get in … this will, again, be a multi year hold.
also, if your not convinced, I did LIT/NASDAQ and sure looks like we’ve bottomed out and are about to break out and take off from a relative strength perspective.
stock up on your batteries folks …
USD vs YEN – VERY key level – NOW
Posted on October 11, 2021 1 Comment
note all the “math” coming into the 114 area being hit .. now. KEY LEVEL
weekly look …
MJ – Global Cannabis
Posted on September 28, 2021 Leave a Comment
I’m a Cannabis BULL and out of my portfolio, right now (knock on wood) the only thing losing money is MJ …
so we “survived” by hitting the .786 from the all time low and bounced and now (intraday) we are setting up for a BUY pattern in/around 14.40-14.50 BUT, folks, this one looks like I might have to eat some crow.
hope is my strategy at this point so if we close (weekly basis) below the .786 will probably take this one to the donut shop and eat it … we’ll see.
hope and change baby hope and change ..
I “hope” we find support and go up from 14.33 and also hope that the intraday buy pattern holds and we “change” trend ..
yeah, that worked out great the last time so … probably going to take a loss on this one.
the ratio … interesting to say the least
Posted on September 28, 2021 Leave a Comment
as you all know, I watch the XLP/NYSE Index ratio for key inflection points .. when the ratio goes UP then “staples” (think risk off) have more relative strength and when the ratio goes DOWN then the overall market (think risk on) is stronger from a relative strength perspective
with the recent market action … one would think the ratio would have exploded higher .. well, yeah, no – it hasn’t. still stuck in the range it’s been trading since FEB 2021.
so, for those max BEARS you might want to watch this .. need an upside break out above the red line to get the party started and for the max BULLS need it to break down below the green line …
no idea which way it will go BUT I will tell you I was surprised when I took a peak at it during my nightly cruising of the charts … my “thinking” was that it would have been higher, much higer.
but we trade what we SEE not what we think … so, until the ratio closes above the red line I’m going to say this sell off is a much needed correction that will ultimately need to be bought … and if we break BELOW the green line, then, perhaps game on for another run.
tricky folks .. not going to tell you it isn’t.
keep an eye out for Palladium in the lower blue blox
Posted on September 28, 2021 1 Comment
last post on palladium: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/09/21/palladium-and-the-dead-cat/
note, Palladium did not take out the low from a couple days ago BUT sure does look like a dead cat bounce . that being said, corrective forms are usually 3 waves so perhaps we go up again to finish off the correction or we just dump lower from here .. that is the question.
either way, the amount of selling and thrust right now begs of caution if long but you might want to perk up as we go into the 1500-1700 level on spot palladium.
also, don’t need to catch a falling knife so watch this level, let it bang around an, perhaps buy on a retest.
Bart's Charts 