LIT ETF for Lithium
Posted on October 11, 2021 Leave a Comment
most people think “equities” and that’s it … there are many asset classes that are just starting multi year (decade (?)) runs …so while stocks are correcting and seem to be pretty stretched taking a look at the current environment and just looking at the news we can see their is a BIG battery shortage coming.
usually, a shortage means higher prices … LIT has been on a tear, up almost 380% in the past 1.5 years…. I haven’t even been paying attention till my two Rugger buddies were texting about it last week.
I found an ETF, LIT, that looks pretty liquid and has been on a tear …
trying to get into a moving market is hard to manage risk so, for now, looking for a correction to try and get in … this will, again, be a multi year hold.
also, if your not convinced, I did LIT/NASDAQ and sure looks like we’ve bottomed out and are about to break out and take off from a relative strength perspective.
stock up on your batteries folks …
USD vs YEN – VERY key level – NOW
Posted on October 11, 2021 1 Comment
note all the “math” coming into the 114 area being hit .. now. KEY LEVEL
weekly look …
MJ – Global Cannabis
Posted on September 28, 2021 Leave a Comment
I’m a Cannabis BULL and out of my portfolio, right now (knock on wood) the only thing losing money is MJ …
so we “survived” by hitting the .786 from the all time low and bounced and now (intraday) we are setting up for a BUY pattern in/around 14.40-14.50 BUT, folks, this one looks like I might have to eat some crow.
hope is my strategy at this point so if we close (weekly basis) below the .786 will probably take this one to the donut shop and eat it … we’ll see.
hope and change baby hope and change ..
I “hope” we find support and go up from 14.33 and also hope that the intraday buy pattern holds and we “change” trend ..
yeah, that worked out great the last time so … probably going to take a loss on this one.
the ratio … interesting to say the least
Posted on September 28, 2021 Leave a Comment
as you all know, I watch the XLP/NYSE Index ratio for key inflection points .. when the ratio goes UP then “staples” (think risk off) have more relative strength and when the ratio goes DOWN then the overall market (think risk on) is stronger from a relative strength perspective
with the recent market action … one would think the ratio would have exploded higher .. well, yeah, no – it hasn’t. still stuck in the range it’s been trading since FEB 2021.
so, for those max BEARS you might want to watch this .. need an upside break out above the red line to get the party started and for the max BULLS need it to break down below the green line …
no idea which way it will go BUT I will tell you I was surprised when I took a peak at it during my nightly cruising of the charts … my “thinking” was that it would have been higher, much higer.
but we trade what we SEE not what we think … so, until the ratio closes above the red line I’m going to say this sell off is a much needed correction that will ultimately need to be bought … and if we break BELOW the green line, then, perhaps game on for another run.
tricky folks .. not going to tell you it isn’t.
keep an eye out for Palladium in the lower blue blox
Posted on September 28, 2021 1 Comment
last post on palladium: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/09/21/palladium-and-the-dead-cat/
note, Palladium did not take out the low from a couple days ago BUT sure does look like a dead cat bounce . that being said, corrective forms are usually 3 waves so perhaps we go up again to finish off the correction or we just dump lower from here .. that is the question.
either way, the amount of selling and thrust right now begs of caution if long but you might want to perk up as we go into the 1500-1700 level on spot palladium.
also, don’t need to catch a falling knife so watch this level, let it bang around an, perhaps buy on a retest.
Palladium and the dead cat?
Posted on September 21, 2021 1 Comment
last post on Palladium: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/08/22/important-correlation/
think about it … went to a long term Palladium chart and was able to calculate the low of 80 ish in Jan 1991 (yeah, 30 years ago) and then figured it was close based on the sell off .. well we hit it and YAWN HO HUM I would expect it to EXPLODE off that level … certainly looks like a dead cat bounce to me … hmmm
I like the lower blue level for BIG support and then, perhaps, a chance to buy or get the bounce and exit before it really gets ugly. (hint hint – it isn’t yet)
Global DOW update ..
Posted on September 7, 2021 Leave a Comment
last post on the Global Dow ($GDOW) here: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/04/15/global-dow-target-hit/
well, just went to check on the GDOW and it’s STILL at our target area hanging out waiting to go UP or waiting to go DOWN.
50/50 bet folks …
MSFT in outer space … !
Posted on September 1, 2021 5 Comments
a long term position on MSFT was closed earlier this year around 220, it was a good ride. and, frankly, I had forgotten about MSFT ever since but when I was working on the NASDAQ chart I saw how strong it was so curiosity had killed the cat and I took a peak at MSFT. YIKES .. what could have been LOL …
but, I still believe Sir Isaac Newton was correct THAT gravity will pull us back down .. so, I got out my eraser and did the geometry we were taught in elementary school on how to create circles out of lines … from there, we use the center of that circle as our “gravity center” and work geometry from there …
I show the steps below … seemingly, the top of the radius circle is a good target and, believe it or not, I have used it before. so, holy smokes, another 10% from here? sheesh … but, those targets are “real” in that if you look at the arcs that came from the gravity center you’ll see that price hug along those arcs VERY nicely so, figuratively, we have a “good arc” so those targets above are …realistic.
now, that being said, as I was looking (studying) the chart my eye showed me a pretty regular “measured move” as the price crept up the arcs. those are the blue arrows … also, note that the measured move is harmonic w/ the initial move off the bottom at .618. the higher targets – if it keeps on going – align w/ 1.618 times the blue measured move.
if you look on the monthly you will see (even from the low in 2009) that the blue measured move has been present at every pullback. yes, you read that correct, every pullback except the most recent was the first to fail since this entire bull market run …. does that mean we most definitely pullback from here OR do we explode another 10% into the areas shown above? don’t know … but we are most definitely in rarified air up here.
NASDAQ update
Posted on September 1, 2021 Leave a Comment
I redid my NASDAQ chart at the request of a friend .. the other night, when I posted it, I just drew the “AB=CD” and figured I would tighten it up over the weekend …I did tighten up the target w/ some more precision.
the AB=CD has been hit.
how did we get this target?
- from the low in 2002 we label A. The most recent 2020 highs are B and then C is the low after that pretty quick drop (note, it was one of the fastest percentage moves drop in history) from there we can calculate the AB=CD target. Appears to have been hit ..
- from the all low on 10/03/74 we draw the radius of the circle all the way to 2000 .. that’s a BIG rock hitting the water, isn’t it?
- from there we draw our circle … once we have the circle we can create the square based on said radius and that is bolded in BLUE.
- speed or fan lines originating from the all time low and being based on the geometry of the first impulse move are pretty powerful. as you can see I divided the length of the square into the usual ratio’s and then drew the fan lines from the all time low … take a look at the result.
- there is a lot going on w/ these lines and there is a lot more geometry that can be drawn but I don’t want to clog up the chart.
so, net net, pay close attention to the NASDAQ in/around here, fer shure … if the AB=CD pattern fails to the upside there are other targets that I’ll update but for now, this looks like something that we should REALLY pay attention to …
Bart's Charts 