been watching the XLP/NYA level …
Posted on August 22, 2021 Leave a Comment
as the market continued to climb to new highs, if you look at the chart below you’ll notice that it did not move to new lows. no, in fact it has been basing since Feb .. almost 6 months. in a truly bullish environment, it would be game on and this ratio would continue lower. it did not …
in fact, it appears to have some strength and starting a breakout to the upside.
THAT, is not a bullish equity move … so, keep you powder dry. if you have been following my blog for a while you know how powerful this ratio (XLP/NYA) has been at warning about inflection points … yes, we have lower targets from the last post, but, for now, certainly appears that the ratio is/has bottomed and a “risk off” mindset appears to be taking hold ..
one last, I went in and fiddled w/ my settings and everything and can’t figure out why all the candles are green? maybe it’s that I’m using a “ratio” but I’m not sure, so I do apologize for any confusion. for whatever reason 4 candles are red …?
make it a good week.
Bart
AMC – update
Posted on August 21, 2021 Leave a Comment
my last post on AMC: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/08/04/amc-heads-up-in-the-zone/
well, it went and hit right at the top – exactly I think – of our target area and is built a series of 3 higher lows (daily) …but we do have an entire “zone” of support in/around 24-28 so this could be a dead cat bounce. give it time …
but, this count is valid and, dare I say, AMC is off to the races …?
US Dollar Index – update
Posted on August 17, 2021 2 Comments
keep an eye on this very very very key level on the USD Index. correspondingly, here’s a EURO BUY PATTERN present inverse to the USD. (it’s usually how it works)
these are the key levels …be on the lookout.
Financials – it’s pretty much all that matters – right now
Posted on August 15, 2021 Leave a Comment
they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.
that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?
well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.
but, the band plays on … right?
so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.
I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …
BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple
DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.
ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.
so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….
now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …
B
always a GREAT time w/ JC @allstarcharts
Posted on August 14, 2021 4 Comments
was able to spend a Friday afternoon w/ JC and his production crew and we were talking about “why” fibonacci ratio’s work in the market … here’s my best guess. LOL
US Dollar Index and others
Posted on August 10, 2021 Leave a Comment
last post on EURO and USD: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/05/23/us-dollar-index-and-euro-come-to-papa/
this is a VERY nice SELL PATTERN on the USD that, if it works, would take us into the monster BUY zone depicted on the last blog.
TBT – decision time
Posted on August 4, 2021 Leave a Comment
well, underwater on TBT. I’ve shown my entry and man did that look like a NICE one .. but, it’s all probability. folks there was a TON of math coming together in /around 17-18 and it got wiped out. but, we have some support holding at the .707.
I’ll cut half my position on TBT if we lose 16.06 to the downside on a DAILY close below.
I’m still bullish RATES but … trade what you see, right? let’s give it a couple more days and then might need to throw half a towel into the ring on this one …
also, I’ve done the 30 year continuous futures contract INVERTED to show the same picture at TBT and to also see if there is some support that might be found on this one … hmmmmm. can’t win em’ all …
investing is like golf .. learn how to play out of the rough and the sand and you will be a good golfer! I’m still learning!
Pfizer (PFE) – January 13, 2023 (update)
Posted on August 4, 2021 1 Comment
PFE is all over the news – not that I care about that BUT the sentiment towards this stock is getting worse … additionally the “big target” was hit up at the monthly level so this stock “should” have a major top in place. (of course, should is the operative word)
down on the 60 minute chart am waiting for a SELL PATTERN to appear but for now, its no mans land.
not sure I’ll be looking to be LONG PFE until another big leg down occurs.
Look to short for now … on my watch list.
49-50 seems reasonable for a short attempt – would like to get a projection up there but can see this offering strong resistance – for now.
August 04, 2021
above is one of my first forays into Harmonic Pattern Recognition … it’s PFE way way down in the low teens. believe I was looking for 13-14 as the low. anyway, when looking at PFE today it reminded me of that chart …
anyway, based on this vaccine stuff and a boat load of cash, looks like PFE is off to the races. some nice resistance above on the weekly and then a “final” target at a double AB=CD and 1.27 extension. that should stop it or at least provide some stiff resistance.
all probability folks …
AMC – heads up – in the ZONE
Posted on August 4, 2021 1 Comment
last post on AMC: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/07/13/amc/
buy pattern is completing, completed. let’s see what happens now … again, it’s ALL PROBABILITY but the masses who have been hanging on might see some light IF (the big if) this PATTERN holds.
I have no idea if it will or won’t but some buds were crazy enough to TRY (operative word) to play this w/ the masses so .. here we go!
the COIN update
Posted on August 2, 2021 Leave a Comment
last post on BITCOIN: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/07/26/el-coino-the-coin-aka-bitcoin/
the coin marched right into our target zone and has backed off .. in fact, it hit, exactly the 1.618 projection. if you remember, the “c” leg is often 1.618 “a” so we hit that …
there are still some higher targets but the theory is that we are in the beginning of a C wave down and then a BUY in, potentially, the low 20’s.
could we be advancing and wave 4 already complete – yes – but for me, it’s too early to tell. for now I’ll watch and monitor ….
Bart's Charts 