AMC
Posted on July 13, 2021 1 Comment
the masses are at “play” here w/ AMC and what a better laboratory to test harmonic patterns than on THIS stock …
the only caveat – it’s all probability. that being said, w/ the balance of thousands upon thousands of our fellow retail traders holding 2 shares portfolios at risk, we can enter w/ a defined point and another defined point of where we are wrong …
so, the GARTLEY PATTERN buy is 28.80-30.98.
the red lines are back from the weekly/monthly and are horizontal lines placed upon former resistance that should (operative word) act as support .. the polarity principle.
anything below the above and this puppy is cooked …
thanks for reading …
TBT update
Posted on July 11, 2021 1 Comment
last post on TBT: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/06/20/tbt-3/
TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.
A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.
in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.
so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …
take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.
and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …
Bart
Bitcoin .. short term still favors the bears
Posted on June 28, 2021 Leave a Comment
last post on Bitcoin: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/06/21/bitcoin-update-3/
nice rally from the fresh lows in the high 20’s .. but, for now, still suggests a correction in a ongoing 5 wave C wave pattern.
if we blow thru 41358 (note futures contract – other prices may vary) on a daily close above then, more probability that the low is in place for an advance.
for now, a near perfect Gartley Sell Pattern exists in around 38-39K
Bart
Bitcoin Update
Posted on June 21, 2021 1 Comment
last post on the Coin: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/06/02/bitcoin-need-some-energy-thrust-to-prove-low-in-place/
lot’s of pressure on the Coin … certainly doesn’t look like the low will hold and will plunge into the 20k’s.
here’s the deal, this smells, feels (I’ve been “scrambled” (surfing term being caught inside) by a C-Wave before) and while it’s a fools game to pick tops or bottoms, I’m trying to find the pattern that will give us the best entry.
I’m long the Coin and getting some egg on my face (see scrambled above) but am going to hold to look for some support and the possible low to be in place to begin the march higher … what do we have going:
Note (3) up near the all time highs .. I REALLY LIKE when a new high is made on 3 waves. that is a classic “b” Wave into the new high and then C wave wipes everyone out – like right now.
the wave count (if this is correct) shows 5 distinct waves down from the high … a “guideline” NOT A RULE is that when 3 extends (in this case 1.618) then 1 = 5 (blue arrows into/around 23K)
a RULE is wave 4 (we are in an expanded flat wave 4 correction right now – if correct) is it cannot go below the end of 1 .. (dashed green line) around 15K. If we go thru 15k to the downside then wipe out the count and this is 100% wrong.
I threw a “basic” retracement grid up there and highlighted the blue box for a support zone that would 1/ finish 5 waves down, 2/ finish the C-wave and 3/ end (4) and then we go UP into the 70’s to start …
also, threw in the fundamental frequency targets (dashed purple lines) and also used the largest percentage correction (dashed red arrows to find the mid-20’s looks like a stopping point to give another a shot ..
hope this helps.
Copper … interesting
Posted on June 20, 2021 2 Comments
it’s all about the data folks … in this case we have a monthly continuous contract of Copper Futures. the PATTERN into the low back in 1990-2000 (yes it took 10 years to complete .. read that again – 10 years) is hard to understand w/out anymore data to the left of it’s beginning so it’s hard to figure out if the high in 2010 was a big 3 or big 5.
thus, I’m going to outline two scenarios ..one bearish one bullish.
BEARISH: replace the big bright orange question mark w/ a bigger 5. IF that is the case THEN the most recent high was completing a B wave and we have started a C wave down … C waves are freight trains of beauty and a wonder to behold .. leave nothing in their wake. stand by …
now, hold the phone, what if the big bright orange question mark is/was a 3? then, the BULLISH scenario is we just finished wave 3, are correcting wave 4 and copper is a BUY into new highs … it’s still working it’s way thru the corrective PATTERN that will appear so it’s hard to make a projection but we should NOT go below (1) as that will violate a rule …
so, for now, take note of the blue arrows .. the all time high was, yup, an AB=CD staring from May 1999. It smacked right into that …
kind of in no mans land from a count perspective due to data but expect the two red horizontal lines to act as support due to the polarity principle …
Happy Fathers Day …
also, note EEM .. smacked into a nice target zone in/around 58 and the second chart shows the daily sell signal on EEM.
minor EEM sell pattern on the daily …
last, note the synchronicization between copper and emerging markets … pretty nice correlation.
last, note the FXI (china) has NOT made new highs while Copper and EEM have .. below you can see that high/low inflection points are nicely timed by the Chinese ETF …
so, for now, expect copper weakness for the next couple weeks then we can figure out where we might be from a count. if anyone has really long term copper data please let me know.
Bart
start em’ early …my son JJ’s first pattern!
Posted on June 20, 2021 1 Comment
and down the rabbit hole he goes … at least he has me “guiding” him although throughout his life he’s the one who I feel is parenting …
he’s questioning the “reason” that this works … but that will come, in time.
“…even the very hairs on your head are numbered.”
CVX – shows a triangle but some pretty thick thrust down to close last week. IF the triangle holds THEN we pop up into the sell zone and then … should be down.
note the timing component – believe next week will be key.
go get em’ JJ …
the Big Short (a pun)
Posted on June 14, 2021 Leave a Comment
below you will find the SHORT DOW ETF called SDOW. it’s pretty fascinating if you think about it or look at it .. your preference.
basically right around the start of the pandemic around the week of 02/14/20 the volume was HUGE and the SDOW went on a nice run higher. well played … but since then it’s down basically 10X and there is still a lot of buying …
look to the far left and this ETF fell so far and nobody was interested and then last year hit and someone/somebody has been buying and selling this security …
now, of late, if you look closer to the last couple candles and corresponding volume you’ll see that the most BUYING volume ever has come in AND the price as pretty much stabilized at/around the low 30’s ….
you going to BUY SDOW down here …?
YEW ….
Bart's Charts 