Tag: Oil Services Index

Geometry – May 31, 2024

is it the GEOMETRY or the NUMBERS or are they the same thing?

My friend Ponch and I continue to discuss and deeply go into the nature of reality and the express reason we believe in an inherent order in the market … this is heady stuff, translated down into its simplest level – for me. He’s next level .. and a great dude.

Anyway, we’ve been discussing the patterns and the natural expansion and contraction of the markets and the ways its impossible to deny the market behaves in the fractal manner of natural law. That law, governed by sacred geometry.

Tonight, sat down and, as you know, enjoyed sitting in front of a chart and just being… tonight it was, for whatever reason, the Oil Services Sector. (hugh …?) Is what it is peeps.

So, w/out every done this before on this chart and not having to resize it, i just started where it ALL started, the primordial first breadth or ripple in time and space and …that’s all she wrote. 🙂

Here’s a sequence of charts that just show the rock hitting the water and the WAVES of angular energy expand outward in time and price. I say “angular” because that will cause waves of energy out in to any direction …angularly up or down according to …what?

Then, I erase the examples of the waves of energy and just do three things:

  1. Draw the initial arrow of the “rock hitting the water”
  2. Create the “first wave”
  3. Draw the first “square”
  4. Every angle afterward is directly related to number 1,2, 3 above … wow.

So, what Ponch and I asked, and continue to discuss is it the number OR the geometry that causes the inflections …

Or, are they the same thing …?

Take the time to look at the last picture but, do yourself a little favor, please. Meditate on the picture and subconsciously tell your brain to allow the intersecting cubes become 3-dimensional and something that is a “multi-dimensional” puzzle … just take the time, I’m not crazy (I don’t think) and then you’ll see how this price and time – from the 2D perspective – is giving a less complete picture of the price action with just price and time. If you allow your perspective to be looking into the picture from a 4D or higher perspective – just go ahead and do it. Perhaps have some super cool or trippy (didn’t know what else to type, lol) music playing with stereo headphones and just “stare” at the last chart and allow our brain to start processing the picture from a different ORIENTATION and you’ll see the natural ups and downs of the price action in the real natural rhythmic it can behold. It’s amazing … enjoy!

the Crude Oil Complex

charts suggest a near term low in place for crude and a bounce (a bounce only) to be expected …

note the correlation of Crude, OSX, Loonie vs USD, Crude/Gold Ratio

note the largest and consistent percentage decline is exactly hitting …. 77.46%

Loonie Double Bottom with Crude at percentage decline (?)

if this chart moves up then so does Crude …
topping …?

Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE to the UPDATE

11/5/2016 – Crude Continuous is giving us a nice “heads up” that this move is CORRECTIVE in the scheme of a much larger corrective pattern to finish a big big 4.  the market corrects (most of the time) in 3 waves labeled A-B-C …in this case let’s follow the set up:

  • $26 dollars was the END of 3 of 5
  • $51 was the top of A
  • the 51.92 slight new high (NOTE WAS IN 3 WAVES) was a ‘minor’ b wave and this move lower is ‘c’ to finish the a-b-c sequence of B.
  • the ‘usual’ relationship is 1.618*a = c and note all of the ratio’s come together in/around 31.30-31.60.  THAT’s a GREAT BUY for crude.
    • Else – we could just be arcing out a FLAT and 38 holds it and if we have 5 waves down into 35.70-35.90 that could be it.
  • either way … we are moving into a very nice BUY of crude.

Until we hit that bottom .. the LOONIE will probably not strengthen and churn/burn in around these levels or a little higher. be patient, the move is coming.

here’s the ideal pattern we are watching:

wave18

here’s crude:

page_16-11-05_12-47-32

here’s Loonie vs EURO and USD:

page_16-11-05_12-55-53

 

page_16-11-05_12-58-57

10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE.  Watch this one carefully.  It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.

WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.

page_16-10-24_20-42-40

 

page_16-10-24_21-09-53

go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE

appears we are at another critical juncture:

  • Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
  • OSX – buy level indicated
  • USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.

again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.

stay tuned

Bart

charts below, let me know if you have any questions.

page_16-09-20_14-40-24 page_16-09-20_14-43-03 page_16-09-20_14-51-26 page_16-09-20_15-14-05 page_16-09-20_15-23-19 page_16-09-20_15-27-18

 

Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE

10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE.  Watch this one carefully.  It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.

WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.

page_16-10-24_20-42-40

 

page_16-10-24_21-09-53

go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE

appears we are at another critical juncture:

  • Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
  • OSX – buy level indicated
  • USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.

again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.

stay tuned

Bart

charts below, let me know if you have any questions.

page_16-09-20_14-40-24 page_16-09-20_14-43-03 page_16-09-20_14-51-26 page_16-09-20_15-14-05 page_16-09-20_15-23-19 page_16-09-20_15-27-18

 

Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection?

go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE

appears we are at another critical juncture:

  • Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
  • OSX – buy level indicated
  • USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.

again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.

stay tuned

Bart

charts below, let me know if you have any questions.

page_16-09-20_14-40-24 page_16-09-20_14-43-03 page_16-09-20_14-51-26 page_16-09-20_15-14-05 page_16-09-20_15-23-19 page_16-09-20_15-27-18

 

Crude, the Loonie and Oil Services Index for 2014

the chart below shows the Oil Services Index $OSX (candles) w/ USDCAD (inverted/line) overlaid on top …

some observations:

  • when the blue line (Loonie) is going down it is weak.  when the blue line (Loonie) is going up it’s strong …
  • at most inflection points, the $OSX and Loonie are synchronized nicely. however, for most of 2013 this relationship has diverged.  in that, while one was going UP (Oil Services Index) one was going down (Loonie weak)
  • the Loonie topped a good 6 months prior to the $OSX in 2007-2008.  However, once they synced they got smashed …
  • the 2009 bottom was well synchronized and since then they have move very nicely together.

$OSX and USDCAD
$OSX and USDCAD

below, we have added (black line) Crude Oil to the chart and, as expected, it is very synchronized w/ $OSX EXCEPT since September 2013.  Note, the $OSX has held up, nicely.  What is this $OSX?

Oil Services, Loonie and Crude
Oil Services, Loonie and Crude

The OSX tracks 15 large companies w/in the context of the Oil Services world …Changes in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index tend to be associated with changes in the oil and gas markets, since greater exploration and construction of wells occurs when oil prices are high and less such activity is carried on when prices are lower.  They were all affected by the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill …

so first let’s go thru the 15 components and look for big picture patterns – BUY or SELL.

Main20131229105932 Main20131229105303 Main20131229105422 Main20131229105523 Main20131229105641 Main20131229105754 Main20131229105836

so, as we can see, there are some nice SELL patterns coming in, there are a couple weak ones and where I didn’t post any charts there wasn’t a glaring pattern to be seen.  Bottom line – I’m not seeing significant strength in the index but to elevate some of the stocks to hit their targets perhaps we’ll see some more strength.  so, now we need to break down each individual component …

Crude Oil: http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/31/crude-oil-a-potential-roadmap/ this was my last post.  I am still in the “look and feel” phase that the top at 147 was a 3 and the low in/around 35 was a 4.  while the pattern completing at 110 was good, the thrust off this bottom trend line last week led me to see a triangle where we can see a,b,c,d,e – triangle complete and off to a new high ?  CRUDE BULLISH

Crude Oil
Crude Oil

USD vs CAD: just a little bit higher (200 pips) we have some pretty major targets.  while I am a DOLLAR BULL, also recognize that the Loonie is a small percentage of the overall index.  LOONIE BULLISH (after a little more weakness)

CAD vs USD
CAD vs USD

Oil Services Index: the only thing “wrong” w/ this chart is that, a RULE of counting is 4 cannot go below 1.  In this case it does,  However, the Crude chart spikes thru but never closes below.  so, I am keeping this count.  Note, we smacked right into the .618 price projection area at/around 294 and are testing it again.  the 306-307 level will be key.

So, our roadmap to follow is:

  • Crude – breakout of triangle.
  • Loonie – BUY a couple hundred pips lower
  • Oil Services – break thru – with strength and conviction (read volume) levels show

one last, this is something to be patient w/ …. I would not recommend jumping all over this tomorrow but wait and see these levels get attacked … the GREAT thing about PATTERNS is we now have clear lines in the sand for where we are correct or wrong. Go back to the beginning of the post – w/ that divergence between the OSX and CAD-Crude the patterns will tell us which way this entire family (Crude, OSX, CAD) will resolve.  It very well could go completely opposite but not until the pattern levels are targeted.  they will either work or fail and then we’ll pounce