Ratio Analysis and TIME – July 3, 2025
Posted on July 3, 2025 Leave a Comment
Happy 4th of July weekend everyone … enjoy it safely w/ family and friends.
If you’re interested, maybe go checkout the America Codes: https://tobeornottobe.org/
Or this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9byS1biWtU
Either way ..enjoy.
Posted this last night about ‘risk’ – https://www.stockmarkettv.com/2025-07-02/ratio-analysis-last-resistance-point-still-standing
The key takeaway from this post is the TIME cycles that appear to be converging ‘now into August’ As shown below, anytime the ratio starts heading up – a correction has ensued. The question – are we going to breakdown below the support zone?
I don’t invest in breakdowns or breakouts – lost a lot of money doing that as it would then rip back against me. Nope, I wait …
So, very impressive V recovery and what appears to be another leg up in a roaring economy. Yup … I’ll wait for the PATTERN so I’m flat equities, for now.
The chart above is the ‘reason’ we have found support and have been bouncing around.
This is why this ratio is soooo key. Anytime it bottoms, the market corrects.
The reason I’m cautious is because of TIME. Note the dual cycle convergence happening now. Remember, this is a monthly chart so we are simply in a time zone where the ratio could bottom and start higher. Historically, that has proven to be resistance for equities.
Of course, it’s different this time.
How about this one …this is
Great weekend to all – Bart
Psychedelics – June 23, 2025
Posted on June 23, 2025 2 Comments
Spent last week in Denver, CO checking out the Psychedelics Science Conference for the company that I am currently working doing strategic business development. Wayne Gretzky says, “skate to where the puck is going to be” and that is the general consensus w/ regards to this community.
It was an interesting perspective for me because, on the one hand my company CHEORS does HEOR/RWE. Basically during the clinical trial phase a LOT of data is spun off, or past CT’s or literature in peer-review articles, etc. etc. Our job is to take all that data and either doing some modeling or ‘RWE – real world evidence’ or evidence synthesis to tell your particular value story. That’s what we do and we do it quite well …
On the other hand, I’m on the board of directors for http://www.behindthinlines.com and we work supporting education and research for entheogenic modalities.
Personally, I’ve done psychedelics and, no kidding, it’s one of the most powerful experience (s) 😉 of my life. I DO NOT do them recreationally because, frankly, that is not in the spirit of the ceremony.
So, it was like the scene from Animal House where both the angel and the devil appear on opposites sides of his shoulder … pharma vs ceremony.
I’m not going to claim to know the answer – I don’t. A blend of ceremony and science – that’s the answer. Compromise people … 🙂
Not all Pharma is bad pharma … I’ve worked in the industry for almost 10 years providing patient support services and am currently knee deep in the biotech world. It’s actually quite fascinating. Think about the intricate nature of the body and the quantum computer it is and … you’re telling me you can find a unique pathway and molecule that not only will interact w/ this temple, but also fix it? Pretty impressive …
Yet, on the other hand, how can a plant or secretions from a toad impact the quantum computer projection device called the brain? Completely bypass your reticular activating system and limbic system to propel you into the void or colloidal condition where ‘stillness’ does exist?
Who knows …
I’m betting that the ‘blend’ of science/ceremony will find common ground and merge – those who want ceremony, go into door 1. Those who want the PROVEN therapeutic value these entheogenic plants can give you, and nothing else (no hallucinations), go into door 2.
PSIL – I’ve been long for a while and just want to update you on ETF that tracks this nascent (trust me – VERY) sector. For this count to remain valid, price cannot close below “c” or less than 9-10 bucks. Big readout today. Check it out:
Global Dow – June 22, 2025
Posted on June 22, 2025 1 Comment
If you search on this site for the Global Dow you will see that I’ve been searching for a top in this index as it certainly appears, from a Ray Charles perspective, to be 1,2,3,4,5.
Did some more work on this when I got back from the Psychedelics Science Conference before the US bombed Iran.
KBW – June 16, 2025
Posted on June 16, 2025 2 Comments
My last post on the KBW showed 139 as the key resistance based on a measured move target. The high being hit on February 7, 2025.
Here’s the link to that post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2025/01/06/kbw-january-6-2025/
That top, in/around 139-140 is SQUARED OUT on 06/26/2025. Keep an eye on that date.
Here’s a chart from a while ago (October 19,2021) showing how, even though time has passed, the targets still remain:
Here’s the most recent price action on a Monthly … if we take the most recent swing high at 139-140 out to the upside then do believe we have a VERY strong target in the 155 area and the 160-162. YES I WILL BE WATCHING 161.8 for the resistance. 🙂
Explanation:
- Blue arrows – represent PRICE measured moves and have been responsible for every up and down move w/in this security. IF (still need to continue surging higher (I DO NOT know if we will or we won’t) we take out the highs then 155 and then 160-162 is the target.
- 59/18 is a calculation of the fundamental frequency … that target is much higher in the top right.
- The black solid and dashed lines are projections … notice the dashed black line lands right where the blue measured move vector ends. 155.
- There are extension targets and the initial impulse move projection is 3.142 AB=CD.
This ‘should’ be very strong resistance for the KBW. Only time will tell.
Remember, we still need to take out the highs … not sure if will do that. Who knows …
IBM and the Golden Mean – in time – June 9, 2025
Posted on June 9, 2025 Leave a Comment
To follow the IBM bouncing ball: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2025/06/05/ibm-june-5-2025/
The Golden Mean, in time, for IBM:
IBM – June 5, 2025
Posted on June 5, 2025 3 Comments
Have been playing w/ IBM for a while. You can ‘search’ IBM on the page or this is a pretty good link to show some interesting vibrations/waves w/in IBM. Frankly, I had forgotten about some of the work I had done on IBM.
Need to slow down … https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/25/ibm-february-25-2023/
Anyway, IF long IBM THEN look at taking some profit per the target below or tighten the stop. Remember, folks, it’s all probability sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t.
WMT and TGT
Posted on June 4, 2025 Leave a Comment
The difference in the stocks of WMT and TGT is pretty amazing.
When we take a look at the ratio of WMT/TGT we can see a parabolic lift off in WMT versus TGT. Frankly, WMT has crushed TGT in the recent past.
Take a look at the ratio – big target for the ratio. Will that signify some relief for TGT and, potentially, some rotation out of WMT?
Some NICE targets across the board in which to see if this plays out.
Note the measured moves … perhaps the dashed red line will lead us right into that confluence zone for a BUY?
Using the technique of finding three lines on a plane to draw an arc I was very surprised that the 4.236 price projection (1.618^3) falls right on the gravity center. NO I did not do that on purpose … I’ve also done a 1.27 extension from the all time high and, last, take a look at the measured moves. Certainly looks like a strong target for WMT.
Here’s the arc and squares created from the gravity center:
Long Bond – April 8, 2025
Posted on April 8, 2025 3 Comments
Well, would you look at that …! Certainly looks like this long term level is going to get tested and boy does it look like some VERY STRONG support …
I’m telling you folks … sounds crazy, but just seems like Mid-May is going to be very interesting. Right …?
Anyhoo, I’m going to close my TBT position and go long TLT … no other reason than why not?
XLP/NYA and IWM – April 08, 2025
Posted on April 8, 2025 Leave a Comment
This ratio is so key …
We banged into two converging trend lines – resistance – that caused the ‘ratio’ to go down which led to ‘equities’ finding some support. Pretty ugly rally, if you ask me BUT we now know why we found the support.
If/when (certainly does seem like it) the upper trend line gets taken out to the upside, then the selling will more than likely continue (intensify?) up to the blue zone.
There we have 4 nice attributes to build a wall of resistance … I suspect that will hold. Not sure if this is IT and we go to new highs or it’s a bounce…. I think we’ll know if/when it occurs.
When we end up bouncing/find the low, I’ll take a peak at my trusty dusty (it is) 14 period RSI and see if we have broken any ‘bear’ or ‘bull’ zones … on long term charts, the market will tell you. Ms. Brown taught us that in her book and it’s a part of CMT II.
I’ll be looking on the hourly to see if/when support comes in for the ratio … expect this to be corrective and, therefore, swings will be crazy.
Honestly, just set your stops and take the rest of the week off …
The reason I hesitate to say BUY for new highs or BUY but it’s just a bounce is because I really have no clue …there are arguments (too many of them if you ask me) from both the bulls and bears. All I know is some LONG TERM targets were hit and, therefore, it should surprise us to see a 30-40 percent correction because that is what they done on most major CORRECTIONS.
Now, that being said, I want to post this chart of the IWM as this is the count I have been going w/ for a few years. (Still doesn’t mean its right, LOL!)
And away it went … one of the ‘best’ things I learned when starting to count (I’m still a work in progress w/ it) is look for form, balance and harmony. See how Wave 2 and Wave 4 just look right …?
So, if this count is correct (it’s guided me nicely for a while) then the Russell is cooked – night night – call it a qual. And to that, I say, WOW. Hope (a strategy) I’m wrong because -is it too crazy to be guilty by association – what does that say about the rest of the market? Is this a BIG BIG TOP?
