Microstrategy – January 16, 2025
Posted on January 16, 2025 Leave a Comment
MSTR sell pattern appearing …
Note, it’s paused right at the .618 price projection sitting on .786 of last swing. This resistance makes sense …
If/when we get a daily close above this level, it should (favorable probability) roll up to 404-405 and then, well, it will be judgement time.
Note what the last two ABCD patterns caused …
XLP/NYA – January 15, 2025
Posted on January 15, 2025 Leave a Comment
For those of you who have been following this blog, you know how much I “lean” on the XLP/NYA ratio.
It’s one of the best tools to monitor ‘institutional money flow’ or ‘risk on- risk off’ appetite of the ‘big guys.’
Ratio goes UP then the numerator is stronger – XLP.
Ratio goes DOWN then the denominator is stronger – NYA.
Going up signifies rotation (the Staples are getting stronger from a relative strength perspective) and stocks correct or going down …
Going down signifies “risk on” as the institutions are rotating out of defensive names and have a more “riskier” appetite.
A few weeks ago, we did the near perfect PRICE and TIME corrective move in the XLP and the importance was the correction was the largest measured move correction since the XLP came on the scene in 1998. Pretty big deal …
At almost the same time, the NYA was smacking into the 1.618 price projection from the all time low and beginning of the NYSE. We had LONG TERM price projections hit in BITCOIN, Transports, Semi-Conductors, etc.
Time for a correction – right?
Hold your horses … for only the second time in 14 years we have penetrated a long term horizontal line of support and we are sitting right on two very important ratios.
Take note, the two times we did penetrate this level (appears to be two months in a row) we sprung back (the ratio) and it led to an almost 2 year correction.
So, PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL as it’s not a far stretch to believe that this level gets smoked to the downside and we vacuum down to the .786.
We are a BIG point of inflection … stocks stop here OR the can explode higher and higher.
WOW.
Interest Rates – January 14, 2025
Posted on January 14, 2025 Leave a Comment
Last Post on Interest Rates: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/07/06/interest-rates-july-06-2023/
I’m going to post some charts – again – just so people realize the extent of the interest insanity that we are dealing with …
At the end of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) we were – nominally – at a 5000 year low in interest rates:
I follow Mr. Armstrong – he’s my only follow. Here’s the link to the data: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/source-for-the-history-of-interest-rates/
Now, with that in mind, we have now gone up the same amount in interest rates in 4 years compared to what it took, the last time, 20 years to do … let that sink in!
The below is interest rates since 1913 – LOG SCALE. Take note of the orange line … over 112 years interest rates have NEVER gone up this much and this time THEY DID IT IN A MERE 4 years – not 20+ like the last time.
Sure seems like they want to go to – at a minimum – the .382 below. Imagine what that will do to our multi trillion dollar debt payments and, just as importantly, emerging markets, Asia and Europe. Remember, the reserve currency is STILL the USD.
So, take a look at the chart above … if we have begun (who knows) a ‘new’ bull market in interest rates, certainly seems plausible that we will have 20%+ interest rates OR a global sovereign debt collapse and burn the entire thing down …
I’m still long TBT.
Bart
BLK Geometry – January 7, 2025
Posted on January 7, 2025 Leave a Comment
The blue arrow is the proverbial ‘rock’ hitting the water … that first move, wave or vibration is the “DNA” of this wave as it goes and ripples thru time …
Never sure if this is THE TOP but certainly can make a case that we’ve hit some stiff resistance. Interesting …
KBW – January 6, 2025
Posted on January 6, 2025 1 Comment
Need to watch the KBW here … take note of the two levels below which represent “gap support.” As long as KBW stays above these two support zones (expect the first to give away) then we are good to go …the BIG gap support is the key for me. That “should” hold if we are still very bullish …just because we lose it doesn’t mean the insanity of the “top of all ages” and “blah blah blah” is here. No, if you’ve been following this blog we’ve expected this level to be resistance for the equities …
As you have heard me say before – banks / financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Don’t get confused w/ the ‘arrows’ on the chart – they are “measured moves” and they are the harmony that causes the market to bounce around …
KEEP AN EYE ON KBW and the Banks/Financials … this SELL PATTERN on KBW has hit and has held.
Last, apologize for missing this SELL PATTERN – I simply had not looked at the KBW in a while and not until today.
Visa – January 5, 2025
Posted on January 5, 2025 Leave a Comment
Well, back to the grinder tomorrow … man it’s been awesome having some time off. Waves – HUGE. Actually too big as the beat down getting out is – frankly – like ice fists to the face. But, the waves are tasty … yew!
Last post on V: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/09/25/visa-september-25-2024/
Support held … now, take a look at this projection. It took me a little while to ‘see it’ but when I did the projection I actually ‘saw’ that the resistance might have been a .618 price projection. Nope.
Folks, the ‘first’ ABCD on Visa is just a little higher … additionally, STAY LONG until the LONG TERM LOG TREND LINE is taken out to the downside on a weekly/monthly close. This is a beast.
MicroStrategy – January 01, 2025
Posted on January 2, 2025 Leave a Comment
Last post w/ MSTR in it – did a joint post w/ Bitcoin: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/11/25/bitcoin-3/
Looks like we have a VERY nice support zone coming for MSTR. I REALLY like the measured move into the .618 from the all time low but there are other alternatives and here’s where a nice STRONG “C” wave would help so you could COUNT the waves (or at least try).
As you can see above, I wanted to buy MSTR and did understand the importance of it’s support level but I missed that one … the hope (always a strategy) was it would complete a sequence.
Anyhoo, here’s MSTR:
NYSE Index – January 01, 2025
Posted on January 1, 2025 2 Comments
Happy New Year – here we go 2025.
NYSE Index finally hit a long term target and, for now, appears to be reacting downward as expected resistance. Again, who knows if this is the making of a big top or a much needed pullback, either way, keep an eye on it as it could accelerate to the downside. One of the things I’ve noticed is the YEN is still not as strong as I thought it “should” be and, therefore, the equity has held up or even continued to advance higher …
NYSE Index has a VERY important support zone ID’d … let’s see what happens there. The red line is THE (CAPS FOR EMPHASIS) 1×1 trendline that it simply smoked (I was surprised at that one) so now, if POLARITY does work it ‘should’ offer a buy opportunity or a zone / area of support.
If it does not hold and it slices thru it … then I might go back and make sure I have the right trend line!
Have a GREAT New Year in 2025.
Bart
AMD – December 23, 2024
Posted on December 23, 2024 Leave a Comment
Was asked by a great friend and money manager about the 3 drives to a bottom on AMD.
While, at first glance, it does appear to be setting up for a 3 drives (key – setting up) I don’t think it officially qualifies as a ‘perfect’ 3 drive pattern – that’s just me.
What I do like is a NICE measured move correction into a confluence zone .. count is a little squirrly, if you ask me. I think (therefore I AM wrong .. :)) it looks like it wants another leg down …? In this environment I’m more cautious …
But, does look like a set up is coming … look forward to your thoughts.
Bart's Charts 