Ratio Analysis – November 15, 2024
Posted on November 15, 2024 Leave a Comment
For the market (US Equities) to continue higher, it will need to break the support level on the XLP/NYA.
Take note – it’s a PERFECT TIME AND PRICE correction equal to the last ‘largest’ corrective move.
As long as this holds, expect downside pressure on the equity market.
Trump vs Russia – November 5, 2024
Posted on November 5, 2024 Leave a Comment
Looks like Russia is ‘stronger’ than DJT.
Interesting, no doubt …
Bitcoin – October 29, 2024
Posted on October 29, 2024 1 Comment
Last post on Bitcoin: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/09/04/bitcoin-and-mstr-sept-4-2024/
Well, looks like the BIG SUPPORT held for Bitcoin and off we go to the long awaited targets it will pick …
My golf game these days is pretty off (non-existent) but do wish I would get out there and wack them around w/ my son. Maybe this weekend …the BIG swell that we had hoped for turned into a ‘storm/wind swell’ so was able to play a bunch Sunday but the rest of this week has been in the tubes …perhaps later in the week? The summer/autumn w/out waves in San Diego. A prolonged South Swell ..up North they’ve been fine, but down here – meh at best!
Anyway – here’s the updated chart. This one is going to be interesting …and folks, let me remind you, I’m not a BEAR or any of that w/ the el coino. Nope, it’s looking pretty good that it’s completing 5 long term waves in the coming weeks/months at , perhaps, the targets ID’d. The key – that could JUST be wave I …
So, if you have taken the ride on Bitcoin in the UPS and DOWNS congratulations you are back to making money ….! As for me, I rode Wave III up and then closed it out near the top and closed my account and never looked back.
The first target is an ABCD w/ the extensions and the parallel trend line of EWT. SHOULD be pretty good resistance. Let’s wait and see …
JETS – October 26, 2024
Posted on October 26, 2024 Leave a Comment
This is a VERY nice sell pattern on the ETF, JETS.
I went into some of the holdings and this is one that will be very interesting to watch. Sometimes, the ETF of a sector will show a PATTERN and then all the stocks under that ETF will show the same sort of pattern … we develop a nice roadmap.
In this case – the lower weighted are actually showing some bullish signs and the heavier weighted are showing some bearish signs.
It’s a mixed bag …
IF my count is correct on FRONTIER HOLDINGS this stock might be ready to run … believe it or not.
Trade what you SEE and not what you BELIEVE. Work in progress for all of us …
Note, this is a VERY nice resistance are below on UAL. However, we must be cautious of the BIG CANDLE that is pushing prices into this level. That is when we step aside and look to see what the PATTERN level will or won’t do …
The reason I’m interested in the ‘transportation’ sector is because of this BIG ABCD on the DJ Transportation Index. Is this BIG MONTHLY PATTERN going to fail …?
In order to see ‘how’ the JETS are doing from a relative strength comparison to the entire DJ transportation index – I’ve plotted JETS/TRANSPORTATION. Interestingly, we are right at an ABCD on the ratio. If this SELL PATTERN fails then, it might be time (and I’m having a REALLY tough time typing this …) to BUY the airlines?
Man, I might be in an alternate reality … look for a DEFINITIVE CLOSE above the ratio SELL PATTERN before jumping into this one …
TSLA – October 24, 2024
Posted on October 24, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last post on TSLA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/04/29/tsla-april-29-2024/
I ALWAYS question my count … when the GREAT Connie Brown told me, emphatically, to STOP counting waves … I should have listened. Once you learn EWT and you count then, your pretty much hooked. I do appreciate EWT … ESPECIALLY THE CORRECTIONS. In fact, for me, it’s all about the corrective FORM and PROPORTION.
The diatribe about EWT was because for a while I’ve been BULLISH TSLA and it’s worked. However, based on ‘everything’ going on I was wondering if this stock will, in fact, go to new ATH’s. Right now, it should …but we have a BIG ONE getting in the way …
If your looking to create a map from OBSERVING the charts and it’s fluctuations below, you might ORIENT your perspective to DECIDE and ACT buy being a BUYER into the PATTERN ZONE and then, because it’s such a long term pattern, take some or a lot or all the profit. However, the ‘count’ that I’m sticking w/ is telling us we are in a wave 5 so, ultimately, this pattern should fail?
Guess we’ll have to wait and see .. for now, check out the wick on those candles. This is a BUY into the PATTERN.
Ratio Analysis – October 21, 2023
Posted on October 21, 2024 2 Comments
One of the best things I learned going thru the CMT process was the use of Ratio Analysis to look for relative strength.
If you’ve been following me you know I enjoy the ratio XLP (Staples) / NYA (NY Stock Exchange Index)
Here’s the theory:
In times of RISK ON (bullish) – the institutions rotate out of “safety” and into more riskier names. When the world gets crazy they need to go somewhere ..right? Go to toothpaste, toiler paper, soup, etc. STAPLES …
In times of RISK OFF (bearish) – the institutions rotate into “safety” and out of riskier names.
BULLISH – the ratio goes DOWN.
BEAIRSH – the ratio goes UP.
Now, in the midst of this continual bullish mania, where has this ratio gone? Nowhere … hmmmm.
Now, just 2.5-3% lower is a THE measured move that represents the biggest correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. We also have a .618 monthly price projection at that same level. This SHOULD act as support which SHOULD cause stocks to pullback. Pullback could be BIG.
Is this 2.5-3% lower stand alone … nope. What makes this VERY interesting is we have a 1.618 price projection from the all time low on the NYA … 2.5-3% higher.
We also need to watch the banks and financials … KRE, XLF and the Banking Index are all hitting BIG resistance.
Metals – October 20, 2024
Posted on October 20, 2024 Leave a Comment
Some very interesting and potential significant PATTERNS about to be hit on the metals. While the ‘energy’ of the Gold and Silver markets is such that they will NEVER go down … they might not, but we have some long term patterns to contend w/ before I’m all in …
Palladium showing some support off the .786 – maybe watch this one on the first pullback?
The YEN – October 13, 2024
Posted on October 13, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last update on the Yen complex: The Yen – October 4, 2024.
Just over a week ago, I posted about the cautionary signals and multiple sell patterns forming in the Yen against the major currencies and a commodity-based currency (the Australian Dollar).
None of these patterns were triggered.
There’s a lack of momentum in the Yen market right now; typically, a trending market in the Spot FX space would have activated these patterns easily. Interesting development…
My point is, although we’re still climbing the wall of worry to reach new all-time highs in the equity markets, I think these Yen patterns against the majors need to fail. If they don’t, and the Yen strengthens across the board, it could become challenging for global equity markets to sustain their upward trajectory.”
And, here is the XLF and KBW Banking Index …
XLF is about to smack into MAJOR resistance. I’ve labeled em’ for your edification but the important one for me is the 4.236*AB = CD as that can usually signify the ‘end of a move’ as MSJ taught me. That has confluence w/ the 1.618 extension. Pay attention to that level …
KBW ‘popped’ from a triangle which usually (not a rule, just a nice to know of EWT) happens at the end of a 5th wave. A little higher is another projection/retracement level. This one isn’t a ‘no brainer’ but it has closed above the resistance which had held for a LONG time. Is it a trap? Guess we’ll have to wait and see …
NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) is about 3% from the next major target. No kidding, this is the biggest outlier for me as the 1×1 trendline from the all time low didn’t even cause a blip …
So there you have it. Yes, we very well could be exploding parabolically into new highs for the next couple of years. Yup … but, I’m not all in the boat, yet. Let’s smoke some YEN PATTERNS first and then, I’ll be a believer.
For now, I’m cautious.
GOOGL – October 10, 2024
Posted on October 10, 2024 Leave a Comment
Been a while since I took a peak at GOOGL.
Trust this helps Scott – is it too long of a timeframe for you?
Bart's Charts 