IBM – September 23, 2024
Posted on September 23, 2024 1 Comment
This has been a good run. Here was the low:
I went to LOG scale and did a count …doesn’t break any rules, but, again, my counting is like my golf game. I mean, it kind of makes sense, so just take it w/ a grain of salt.
NASDAQ Composite – 9/22/2024
Posted on September 22, 2024 Leave a Comment
I’ve put a ‘rudimentary’ count together on the NASDAQ and from a price perspective, it does not violate any rules of Elliott BUT notice how LONG (time) wave 1 and wave 3 were …?
Might be a hard argument to win that this is THE 5th wave …maybe 1 of 5 but I do think we have some resistance here or a little higher.
Interestingly enough, the all time high, so far, on the NASDAQ was exactly equal to 1.618 * wave 1.
NY Stock Exchange Index – September 22, 2024
Posted on September 22, 2024 1 Comment
Folks,
have to admit, somewhat ‘surprised’ at the continued strength of the US equity indices.
the YEN ‘surprise’, the all time low square out on the NYA, the perfectly harmonic measured moves on the DJIA, etc. etc. etc. and the market just doesn’t seem to care.
so, we have ‘another’ major target on the NYA a little higher (about 4-6%) and that “SHOULD” cause resistance but …who knows.
Metals – September 21, 2024
Posted on September 21, 2024 Leave a Comment
Across the board, the metals are hitting big sell signals. As is the case w/ PATTERNS, we really DO NOT know which ones will work and which ones won’t … but when they all pretty much lineup like they all are now, then something ‘big’ usually occurs.
Mind you, the ‘big’ can be PATTERN failures across the board (the sell signals all fail w/ a daily close above the levels shown below) OR the PATTERNS work and the metals are at a pretty big inflection point and …down they go.
This is a VERY interesting time w/ regard to the ‘circle of life’ (fixed income, FX, equities (global and CONUS) and commodities) … it’s really not a simple bet right now.
I posted yesterday about Gold. I mean, folks, it really doesn’t get any better than this. Long term ABCD’s are BIG DEALS. That, coupled w/ the rest of the metal sell patterns shown below, will make you realize that this is THE inflection point for the next couple months or, perhaps, year (s).
Gold: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/09/19/gold-september-19-2024/
Silver:
Copper – BTW – where is Copper? W/ the move occurring in the equities, shouldn’t copper be following? It’s barely made a .382 – hmm. PS – this is a VERY nice PATTERN – ABCD, .382+.618 confluence and 1.4142 extension.
Palladium:
Gold – September 19, 2024
Posted on September 19, 2024 1 Comment
Gold approaching MAJOR resistance …
Bond Complex – September 5, 2024
Posted on September 5, 2024 Leave a Comment
Well, I fully admit my mistakes on this blog. Yes, went long around 14 on TBT and now, wondering if “this was just a correction and we go back to ZIRP. ” Sure looks like TBT is about to fall off the proverbial cliff and w/ that we’ll get a rate cut and then bonds will go higher and blah blah. Good thing our interest payment on our debt isn’t crushing still ….hmmm, about that! 🙂
anyhoo … my goal has been to get into a position at what I ‘think’ (that might be the problem) and ride the entire WAVE. As you may or may not know I am a surfer and enjoy being on the water riding, what I call, echoes of the primordial big bang thru the medium of water and a surfboard. Wow … folks, you see, the water isn’t moving … it’s the PULSE of the ENERGY flowing thru the water.
so, we are close to judgement time and it’s going to close out on my head (been there done that) or have I picked the right line (you literally maneuver the surfboard to match a line that will encompass the FORM, PROPORTION and BALANCE (sound like Elliott Wave Theory?) of that wave so you can keep making sections and ride the wave up and down and up and down. It’s zen.
we can see the H+S neck line we are about to crack thru (or we should see them) and take note of the .618 price projection is precisely causing the support (hmmm – note, don’t forget, always know where the .618 price projection is) and then we go lower into a small unfilled gap on the .618 but finish a near perfect BUY pattern @23.30. Little lower is the .786 and then, well, perhaps this was an a-b-c correction and another low to be made.
Maybe I’ll just put my stop a little below the .786.
I’m no fundamentalist – fully admit it.
It just looks like way way back at the top I said this could be the top for a few decades as it sure looked like 5 waves UP from the 1982 low on bonds. So … one of these levels will hold – and start back up – which means rate increases over time.
Who knows …
now, objectively speaking, if we look at the 10 year interest rate, it really hasn’t budged that much has it? and, if we use Mr. Measured Move we can see that it does have some higher targets.
Here’s a look at interest rates
So, either way we look at it, we are coming to a very important inflection point according to the patterns.
Which way will they go?
B
BITCOIN and MSTR – Sept 4, 2024
Posted on September 4, 2024 4 Comments
Bitcoin and MSTR (Microstrategy) shake and jive well together.
If we look at the MSTR chart we have a couple things going on:
- Square Out – WD Gann said you could square out a high, a low or a range. In this case, we took the range of the move from the high to low and converted that to calendar days. That gives us a DATE of 9/30/2024. The ‘perfect’ scenario would be for PRICE to be at the BUY PATTERN level shown on 9/30. We shall see …
- Take a look at the RED MEASURED MOVE – it lands right on top of the projection and a .618 retracement. We like that ..
- The second chart is some more work looking for the key levels – shown in Green for MSTR.
- Last, took LOG SCALE measured moves and, in doing that, shows a nice target appearing higher on MSTR.
- Certainly looks like a ‘valid’ 5 wave count so I do feel confident in saying – be cautious – as this 5th wave could have ended but certainly looks like it wants to make another run higher …
- IF this PATTERN fails on MSTR then would expect the support to give away on Bitcoin futures. If it holds, then we “should” be off to new highs into the target areas shown for Bitcoin.
The Markets – September 2, 2024
Posted on September 2, 2024 Leave a Comment
This has been some rebound and move higher – across the board.
We are coming into a VERY key week from a cycles perspective and that means we could start down around mid-week or we explode higher. I was bearish going into the highs I blogged about in mid-July w/ the YEN hitting major targets and the DOW JONES hitting the measured move targets. There was a LOT of major long term targets that were hit and the market reacted downward, pretty strongly. But, that has all dissipated.
On the NYA we have a LONG TERM 1.618 projection target about 6% higher. There is also a Geometrically Derived (center of the Vesica Pisces) target a little higher. This entire zone “should” be resistance.
If NVDA blows thru thru the .786, then another target looms a little higher.
The banks have been rallying – they are NOT near the all time highs and are approaching resistance.
The XLP/NYA ratio is close to MAJOR support and if we lose that ‘neckline’ of support you can see the BUY of the ratio down at the ABCD on the .786. If we lose this support on the ratio, then I find it hard to believe the market will go down. Watch this level closely.
Even JUNK BONDS have gotten into the game BUT , again, a large target looms a little higher.
Look at the size of this candle wick in the VIX. WOWZA …
Home builders are cruising – but take a looksy a little higher and we have a major target appearing.
Here’s another target a little higher on the S&P 500.
And last, but not least, we have the USDJPY. The YEN is the big canary in the coal mine. Just a little higher is the .618 price projection and .786 and then the ABCD higher.
In July, it looked pretty clear cut that resistance was being hit .. now, it’s NOT as clear but still begs of caution going into this week.
I’m looking for the targets on the JPY to be hit …that will tell us a lot about where we are.
NVDA – 08/28/2024
Posted on August 28, 2024 Leave a Comment
NVDA earnings today …
Very interesting inflection … watch the New Taiwan Dollar as it looks to be inflecting. Historically, when the chart tops, the SOX takes off and goes higher.
We have a major target hit on the SOX and, what appears to be a valid 5 wave count.
Note the .786 and .618 price projection around 99-100 for support and if we blow thru that then the projection/1.27 around 79-81.
Here’s some targets for NVDA and the New Taiwan Dollar …
Last post on Semi’s: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2024/07/14/semiconductor-index-july-14-2024/
Bart's Charts 