XOM update
Posted on April 24, 2016 Leave a Comment
04/24/2016 – the “zone” shown below has worked and XOM is rallying in 3 waves. IF the thesis that the high at 104 was a big top THEN this pattern shown below should work. If not, then it will continue higher. This is a very nice sell pattern.
please read the entire post from the bottom to the top to understand what could possibly going on here ….
thanks and hope you have had/are having a good weekend.
Bart
folks – I am sorry that I didn’t post this earlier as this ranks up there as a “no brainer” in my simple mind …
- the ENTIRE KEY is the square root target
- IF square root targets lie on top of 3 Fibonacci retracements and a measured move then Lions (square root target), Tigers (measured move) and Bears (pardon the pun – retracement levels) it is “usually” market magic.
also, the pattern from November 2013 is included. was looking for 101-102. shoot me …
strategy is key here .. as you can see we do have a target a little lower also BUT that daily candle is impressive, wouldn’t you say?
update to TLT and 30 year continuous futures …April
Posted on April 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
04/23/2016
very important level coming into play w/ the TLT.
watch 125 for support but if bearish bonds then this level must fail. if not, then we’ll keep bouncing around in this chaos.
Fed Fund Futures haven’t budged … higher interest rates?
03/14/2016
02/27/16 – TLT, if correct, should be losing steam over the coming days/weeks. Initial target appears to be 109-111.
note, if this pattern fails, then 145 is a very strong target as shown below. also note, the cycle top times came in w/ pattern completion. right now, favor the short side into the 109-111 area but do want to show possibilities.
DJ Utility Index – an update
Posted on April 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
04/23/2016 – update to the Dow Jones Utility Index. they took quite the beating this week, yes, so this pattern could be finished as mentioned below. There were higher targets but we’ll just have to watch price action over the coming days/weeks to ascertain if a big top is in place. Not time to buying into this sector IMHO.
IDU is an ETF but it’s LONG Utilities … perhaps a short? Wrong above 124.
04/05/2016 – as you can see below, the pattern failed on the Dow Jones Utility Index in/around 560-570 and propelled higher.
now, per the chart below, you can see we are at another crucial juncture. the “blue arrow” represents the MAXIMUM that the Utility Index has moved since it’s low in 1942. In around the orange triangle labeled 3 (for the 3 drives to a top) the average should run into MAJOR resistance. this “should” put pressure on the bonds ….also, note the monthly bearish divergence present.
Warning sign, pay attention.
back in April 2014 (https://bartscharts.com/2014/04/19/dow-jones-utilities-long-term-1942-price-pattern/) we ID’d a long term pattern that was completing. the market subsequently went up into Jun/Jul and hit the target. now it appears we “might” be carving out a Head and Shoulders Daily topping pattern. Note, this same pattern came into play on a MONTHLY basis during the 2007-2008 time frame.
the reason we are watching this closely is because of the presence of this long term topping pattern that has hit and held, thus far.
@seeitmarket YEN update and an ETF to use for this move – YCS
Posted on April 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
update on my USD vs YEN post over @seeitmarket.com : http://www.seeitmarket.com/currency-spotlight-usdjpy-bottom-dollar-yen-15587/
chart of YCS use the low of 70 as the “don’t go below” point for stop considerations. 84 next area of resistance.
Bart
ABX is the next move higher upon us? Take a look
Posted on April 11, 2016 Leave a Comment
10/21/2018
as you can see below, we thought the 11-12 wave promising but the form, proportion and balance hinted of one more lower … that proved to be the case and the 9’s held. I’ve included another nice timing tool. sometimes – you have to play w/ it as nothing is perfect – you put the radius vector underneath the high instead of using the low to high vector. where the circle lands at the 3 o’clock position AND a pattern is visible you have a nice time component …
anyway, IF (always the big if) the count is correct this puppy could roll into the high 20’s and shoot for 28 believe it or not.
look to buy the first pullback …
Bart
07/21/2018
Note, ABX completed a nice buy pattern at 11.10. the 11-12 area is promising BUT wave counts could have 1 more move lower into the mid 9’s . either way, believe the next larger move is higher for ABX. if you look at the charts below, you’ll see the ‘reason’ for the low in the 6’s.
keep this one on your radar screen.
Bart
04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.
going back in time, here was the set-up.
$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making
So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk. NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618) It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.
have a good weekend …
B
PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for. Will watch over the coming weeks.
ABX updated … wow
Posted on April 11, 2016 Leave a Comment
04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.
going back in time, here was the set-up.
$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making
So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk. NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618) It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.
have a good weekend …
B
PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for. Will watch over the coming weeks.
Visa … an amazing business model and an amazing ride and some cool math.
Posted on April 9, 2016 Leave a Comment
Hint: take some profit …
Here’s some charts on Visa .. actually doing this blog post to the JOSHUA TREE by U2. What a great piece of poetry .. “The Mother of the Disappeared” is amazing. Anyway … I think this run in Visa is done “here” or into the 3 drives. check out the monthly bearish divergence present .. should be topping “now-to soon”
cheers, continue to make it a great weekend …
Bart
might go up to that upper trend line but this “long term” bearish divergence has me concerned … check it out.
folks, the above chart shows the fundamental frequency. if you want to figure it out …check out http://www.stockcyclesforecast.com as Michael Jenkins is not only an amazing mentor but he’s a friend. HE TAUGHT ME THIS … the credit is all his.
above are the targets …not sure which one it will be.
all that being said – we have a GREAT SELL PATTERN appearing NOW.
so, IF this holds then Visa could start down BIG ELSE it will seek the higher targets.
So, on the long term charts the monthly bearish divergence coupled w/ the targets shown above and the SELL PATTERN hitting on Friday say that this goose is cooked. I will be shocked if Visa can overcome the levels shown above … but that doesn’t mean anything, it’s all probability.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
Bart's Charts 