Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again
Posted on July 30, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever. We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play. No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country. Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.
that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.
we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93. why did it stop there?
when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.
additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.
we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…
So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.
07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs. Sheesh! But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …
Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception. Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.
NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …
this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:
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Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED
Posted on July 16, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs. Sheesh! But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …
Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception. Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.
NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …
this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:
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GOOGLE update
Posted on July 16, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/16/2017 – well, the area defined below did hold and, thus far, show a lot of strength blasting off from this area. for now, would look for 998-990 to act as near term resistance. There isn’t a lot of form/structure to look for a pattern SELL so for now watch the numbers discussed in the last sentence.
Chart below is an intraday – 4 hour chart of GOOGL.
Hope your having a good weekend.
Bart
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I’ve spent some time over @seeitmarket working on GOOGLE. This was my last post:
As you are probably aware, it blew thru the target area. Now, it did spend roughly a year and half at the target level but in the end it blasted off.
Back to the drawing board …
Where are we now .. well, being a pattern dude and trying not to inject personal opinion I just try to call it like I see it. GOOGLE has a nice pattern hitting … so if the bull run is to continue current levels or a little lower need to hold.
I tried (being the operative word) to give a realistic count. Ha, that didn’t work … but I know where waves 1 and 2 are! I’m going to keep the rest of the chart after 2 clear .. want to see what happens around the buy level above. But note the chart below .. some interesting stuff going on …AB=CD (blue arrows), Wave 1 equals the current wave .. and wave 1 *2.71828 exactly nailed the top (yes the natural log number – it’s a key number folks). So, we shouldn’t be that surprised on the resistance found on GOOGL
Also, you know I love long term LOG trend lines. As the chart below shows, we have 3 key trend lines … I recommend monitoring the blue and red lines. the blue, from the polarity principle, SHOULD be strong support. If that breaks, then a move to the red trend line (the one that has been the key support for ALL advances) should get attacked. IF WE BREAK BELOW (on a weekly close (?)) THAT TREND LINE THIS PUPPY COULD REALLY ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE. So, monitor GOOGL closely.
GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions.
Posted on July 15, 2017 1 Comment
wait for a little lower?
note all three legs up (blue arrows) were exactly the same and so this move down was to be expected. using the last ‘big’ move down as a projection and it comes into that 23-24 area.
I DO NOT LIKE THAT IS HAS REACTED WEAK ON THE LONG TERM LOG TREND LINE FROM 2009.
B
Do I train people … ? Depends …
Posted on July 8, 2017 3 Comments
7/8/2017 – I’ve been so lucky over the past 12 years to have the opportunity to make an investment in training w/ people who have been in the market for decades. It’s been a humbling yet fascination journey.
For whatever reason, I found the path to ‘leading indicators’ and ‘vibrations’ and ‘music’ to understand – FOR ME (note bold and all capitals) – what is driving the market.
There are a number of reasons for this ..but, one of the main reasons is I have never taken a fundamentally based economics or business course. NEVER. So, when I was learning I brought no bias to the chart that consisted of price and time. Honestly, when I even try to comprehend what the fundamental analysis dudes/dudettes are doing it simply confuses me – big time. I think “those people are way smarter than me.” No kidding, I believe that ANYONE who has made a successful trade (and by that I mean you came up w/ a thesis, acted on that thesis and had a stop out point) had the conviction to take risk. A successful trade is one that you execute your plan – doesn’t matter if it’s a positive or negative trade. You acted on your plan.
I used to try and make people BELIEVE that everything is vibration and the biggest vibration in the world was the masses and their fear and greed expectations. Over time I realized that the methodology I learned was certainly not even close to being accepted by the masses. So, I quietly go about my business.
So, to the subject of this blog … if someone reads this book and cant’ put it down then email me. If you HATE IT and it DOESN’T resonate then don’t try to learn what I do. You either understand/resonate w/ this or you don’t. It’s that simple …
$TSLA – batteries appear charged UPDATE to the UPDATE and the POWER Of 2 1.618’s
Posted on July 6, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.
the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.
if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …
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02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA. Tons going on in my life .. all good.
As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.
Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together. For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.
WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.
Cheers and rock on, ok?
Bart
04/05/2016
As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.
so, patterns work and patterns fail. want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done. don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.
Bart
so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.
as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.
in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.
and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level? 3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….
- pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME. Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
- this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.
watch this level closely.
as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
GOOGLE update
Posted on July 4, 2017 Leave a Comment
I’ve spent some time over @seeitmarket working on GOOGLE. This was my last post:
As you are probably aware, it blew thru the target area. Now, it did spend roughly a year and half at the target level but in the end it blasted off.
Back to the drawing board …
Where are we now .. well, being a pattern dude and trying not to inject personal opinion I just try to call it like I see it. GOOGLE has a nice pattern hitting … so if the bull run is to continue current levels or a little lower need to hold.
I tried (being the operative word) to give a realistic count. Ha, that didn’t work … but I know where waves 1 and 2 are! I’m going to keep the rest of the chart after 2 clear .. want to see what happens around the buy level above. But note the chart below .. some interesting stuff going on …AB=CD (blue arrows), Wave 1 equals the current wave .. and wave 1 *2.71828 exactly nailed the top (yes the natural log number – it’s a key number folks). So, we shouldn’t be that surprised on the resistance found on GOOGL
Also, you know I love long term LOG trend lines. As the chart below shows, we have 3 key trend lines … I recommend monitoring the blue and red lines. the blue, from the polarity principle, SHOULD be strong support. If that breaks, then a move to the red trend line (the one that has been the key support for ALL advances) should get attacked. IF WE BREAK BELOW (on a weekly close (?)) THAT TREND LINE THIS PUPPY COULD REALLY ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE. So, monitor GOOGL closely.
