$TSLA – batteries appear charged UPDATE to the UPDATE and the POWER Of 2 1.618’s
Posted on July 6, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.
the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.
if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …
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02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA. Tons going on in my life .. all good.
As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.
Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together. For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.
WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.
Cheers and rock on, ok?
Bart
04/05/2016
As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.
so, patterns work and patterns fail. want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done. don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.
Bart
so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.
as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.
in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.
and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level? 3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….
- pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME. Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
- this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.
watch this level closely.
as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
GOOGLE update
Posted on July 4, 2017 Leave a Comment
I’ve spent some time over @seeitmarket working on GOOGLE. This was my last post:
As you are probably aware, it blew thru the target area. Now, it did spend roughly a year and half at the target level but in the end it blasted off.
Back to the drawing board …
Where are we now .. well, being a pattern dude and trying not to inject personal opinion I just try to call it like I see it. GOOGLE has a nice pattern hitting … so if the bull run is to continue current levels or a little lower need to hold.
I tried (being the operative word) to give a realistic count. Ha, that didn’t work … but I know where waves 1 and 2 are! I’m going to keep the rest of the chart after 2 clear .. want to see what happens around the buy level above. But note the chart below .. some interesting stuff going on …AB=CD (blue arrows), Wave 1 equals the current wave .. and wave 1 *2.71828 exactly nailed the top (yes the natural log number – it’s a key number folks). So, we shouldn’t be that surprised on the resistance found on GOOGL
Also, you know I love long term LOG trend lines. As the chart below shows, we have 3 key trend lines … I recommend monitoring the blue and red lines. the blue, from the polarity principle, SHOULD be strong support. If that breaks, then a move to the red trend line (the one that has been the key support for ALL advances) should get attacked. IF WE BREAK BELOW (on a weekly close (?)) THAT TREND LINE THIS PUPPY COULD REALLY ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE. So, monitor GOOGL closely.
BITCOIN Investment Trust … why did it stop today? UPDATE
Posted on July 2, 2017 Leave a Comment
07/02/2017 – Barron’s .. the ultimate contrarian indicator. 🙂 For the time being, at least, we still have the upper target out there and, additionally, the corrective sequence sure looks like it wants another move down. CAVEAT EMPTOR
Bart
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05/25/2017 – I hate to do the ‘could have and would have and should have’ when using charts. Those of you who have been following me know that. I wanted to get to this chart before the open to just give it a shot … was on travel and in the airport yesterday and I kept seeing the PARABOLIC ROCKET SHIP of BITCOIN …couldn’t wait to throw some geometry on the chart.
When we see parabolic moves – THINK LOGS. It’s why the darn things were created in the first place.
As you can see below .. we are stretched and could go higher but today it ran smack into a LOG AB=CD and a key LOG trend line .. resistance was to be expected. You can also see – and why not – that there is another set of targets higher. I’ve also included the NYSE Bitcoin index … it’s data isn’t updated yet but you can see that it also ran smack into the GRAVITY CENTER. (I used the technique taught to us in elementary school on how to make a circle using three points. (dead serious). Again, for you my loyal readers, I didn’t know if it would work. You get to the point where you can ‘see it’ …
For now … man, it’s great to get on the rocket ship and ride it but there was always a REASON we landed w/ 2000 lbs of gas. Always .. because if you ran out of gas, your screwed. When parabolic blast off end they don’t end w/ a whimper .. .they THUMP hard.
Caveat Emptor for the Bitcoin craze ….
Bart
STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE
Posted on July 1, 2017 2 Comments
07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive. key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.
Be well my friends … Bart
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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles) on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.
also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming. in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform. however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely. A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed. Monitor the ratio for clues ..
Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
MSFT Microsoft UPDATED and UPDATED again ..
Posted on June 30, 2017 1 Comment
06/30/2017 – end of the month, that’s not a bullish candle now is it … monitor this one closely. We do still have that upper target, but that might be all she wrote for the time being.
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06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75. That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.
Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.
Bart
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03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
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10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
BUY on MSFT in March 2009
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table
Mastercard 5 waves up complete? an UPDATE
Posted on June 30, 2017 Leave a Comment
06/30/2017 – bumped into purple (dashed) trend line w/ a monthly doji. Pause/indecision. Expect some consolidation and pullback but do think the upper target will still be targeted …
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04/29/2017 – the levels shown in the post below held but created a 6-8 month triangle which exploded higher. Triangles are terminal from where they explode (higher or lower) but this stock is really strong. Do I think we are still in a 5th wave – YES. But, I would keep rolling w/ this until the lower purple trend line is broken on a weekly close …this is a VERY powerful stock.
thanks for asking .. I did this post for a colleague but more importantly a trusted friend.
B
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MasterCard – what a great business model. you swipe the card and they get paid ..nice.
that being said, sure looks like 5 waves complete w/ monster bearish divergence. note the blue median line. price has not closed below that on a monthly basis, if we do get that close, then this could accelerate to the downside.
also, thru some geometry on there … when using arcs, the 3 o’clock position is a time component and the top of the circle is price. see how the “time” component nailed the low? that gives you a heads up that the price (top of the circle) should be stiff resistance.
B
TLT update … folks, this could be the beginning of a BIG move in RATES
Posted on June 30, 2017 Leave a Comment
if you search rates on this sight you’ll see we’ve been following the long bond, TBT/TLT, short term interest rates, etc. for a while.
first chart is the projection I sent out to some friends … it went right up into the short zone and has since fallen.
note the measured move corrections – for rates to really take off, believe our first hint/signal will be a break (daily close below) of the 123-124 lower channel support level.
went right up into the zone depicted above:
Crude BUY pattern present – update
Posted on June 30, 2017 Leave a Comment
06/30/2017 – note measured moves up (blue arrows) – would use those as targets for now. As long as loonie continues to thump the USD, then this might have legs beyond those measured moves.
B
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