JPM update
Posted on October 21, 2017 Leave a Comment
10/21/2017 – around a year ago the pattern below was defeated by JPM. as you can see from November 2016 it was a pretty big candle coming into this level.
we are now at another crucial level for JPM. 100-105 ‘should’ cause some stiff resistance. w/ the continued bullish movement of the overall market would definitely WAIT for a monthly/weekly SRC before selling or taking profits.
Bart
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11/19/2016 – update to JPM.
the pattern in/around the 60’s caused quite the chop fest but was, ultimately, defeated.
now, since the election, JPM has vaulted out of the gate into the ‘big AB=CD’ and extension area … because of such a big candle coming into this level, it begs of caution if trying to short – perhaps look for a weekly or daily signal reversal?
wrong above 84 …
B
JPM sell pattern
Continuing to Monitor the XLP / NYA important ratio …
Posted on October 8, 2017 Leave a Comment
did this for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/are-consumer-staples-signaling-a-volatility-omen-17331/
here’s an update as of Friday’s close:
If I learned anything from getting my CMT it was the power of ration analysis. X/Y …. If X is stronger the chart goes up and if Y is stronger then the chart goes down. And, since we are charting securities guess what works on them –the PATTERNS. So the theory goes IF the insititutions are risk off the chart goes down and volatility is suppressed. If the institutions are risk adverse then the chart goes up and volatility picks up and stocks sell off.
Thesis:
- MONTHLY of XLP / NYSE Index w/ candles being the ratio and the blue line being the NYSE Index.
- Note, at EVERY major inflection of the NYSE Index the RATIO pivoted … it either inflected to go up or down BUT every move of the NYSE Index respected this move.
- Monthly XLP / NYSE Index.
- Note, most oversold in 6 years and slammed into the .382. Weekly bearish close … did expect it to respect this area and w/ Bradley Date, Martin Armstrong Directional Change and the note from Mike – along, and most importantly, the PATTERNS I did expect this to find support and give at least a daily BUY signal. It has not done that …but all is not lost.
- Monthly XLP/ NYSE Index
- Note, if we don’t find support here then we have a measured move target a little lower and, ultimately the big green target …
- Daily XLP/NYSE Index
- Note, the time component (somewhat of a 3 drives to a bottom but still in line w/ ‘time’ of every rally ….
- Note, the 1.618 w/ an AB=CD (nice time on AB=CD) right at our .382 from the all time low
- Intraday (5 minute) XLP / NYSE
- Yes, we closed at the lows … but yes we ‘really didn’t’ break the lows so in order for this market to pivot and correct next week believe this level needs to hold and rally tomorrow morning.
Conclusion: believe this ratio remains important for the overall health of the market and if it can hold these lows then volatility should uptick and the market sells off. IF we breakdown from these levels THEN we’ll seek the next lower target and the market will continue top march up a wall of worry.
$NFLX another short swing at the bat? Perhaps? UPDATED 10/1/2017
Posted on October 1, 2017 Leave a Comment
10/1/2017 – going to start this post w/ the image that I used before to describe my love affair w/ NFLX. The patterns have been strong and it’s blow thru many levels sighted below. I BELIEVE in PATTERN RECOGNITION as an AMAZING TOOL to manage risk and put probability in your favor. NFLX has been an amazing run …and it has the bar eating me, right now. Enough said! 🙂
since my last post in April, NFLX is up roughly 20 percent. Pretty darn good … but, again, I’m just trying to remove any bias and simply take a look at what I SEE and NOT BELIEVE. You’ll see in the chart below that 1) the patterns have failed on this puppy and it’s strong strong strong! 2) we have some factors coming into it which SHOULD (the operative word) cause resistance or a stall or a fall from in/around current levels.
roughly 5 people from all over the world (pretty cool hugh?) have asked me to take a look at NFLX. I waited till the end of the month to see wha the monthly candle would bring …it’s a doji. In the PAST this has led to strong explosive moves UP. I still SEE 5 waves but until we get a monthly signal reversal candle (look for a close beneath 160 on a weekly level as a first sign) then the beat goes on …
now that the quarter has ended I sense/believe and, yes, want the market to reveal itself this first week of October …
thanks for reading ..
Bart
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04/22/2017 – trade what you see, not what you believe. NFLX has been “topping” since January 2017. shown below are the key gap areas and the looming trend line …but folks, it hasn’t moved lower. unless we get a weekly close below 133 – step aside. the ‘math’ stopped it but it sure seems strong to me, for now …
2/14/2017
- basically hit the target zone we were identifying. now it gets interesting as you can see, on the daily, we have many gaps staring from this past summer. if we can break thru the 133-137 level then the gap 100-112 seems like a reasonable target for now.
our assumption is we have completed 5 big waves per the below so … could get interesting? Or, the stock will never go down, right? the market only moves up.
Bart
1/12/2017 – well if at first you don’t succeed, try again. doesn’t matter this its NFLX, in the world I live in, it’s just a ‘chart’ so here we are at it again …
well, the GAP from the former congestion area into new highs was powerful BUT note that we have been selling off since the gap and IF (the big if folks) we close back below the dashed orange trend line AND close the open gap (a gap down back below is ‘technically’ the island reversal THEN guess what things could get going to the downside. so use those levels noted below as your guide.
some key stuff:
- note the monthly
- that’s some pretty large bearish divergence
- also note, from the first move up way back when it ‘perfectly’ hit the 3.142 (PI) projection
- also note the top trend line … a daily close above that is VERY bullish but right now, banged right into it as resistance
- note the monthly ‘log’ chart
- the top trend line held price at bay (that caused the consolidation IMHO) but if we keep going that top trend line would be the next logical target
- note the daily
- see the orange dotted trendline … that’s the one to really watch for now
- I REALLY like that wave 1 up and wave 5 up are equal in PRICE and TIME
- note how wave 3 gapped rigth up to the AB=CD where wave 1=3 and then ran ….
- REALLY pay attention to the gap that was left a couple days ago – that’s the one which, if gapped down below will cause the island reversal
perhaps NFLX will kick my butt again … we’ll see.
cheers!
B
if you look thru or have been reading my blog you’ll realize that the patterns do fail .. invariably when this occurs I’ll go back to the drawing board and come up w/ another PATTERN. check out WYNN … you never know what’s going to happen and the PATTERNS do fail. manage the risk …
$NFLX has beaten me – alot. Uncle ….
https://bartscharts.com//?s=NFLX
that being said, I hit erase all on $NFLX chart and took a fresh look at it … I still see 5 waves up w/ no RULES broken so the count is valid and there’s monthly bearish divergence and we are about to tag the upper long term trend line that is roughly 10 years old. I still say be careful up here but .. again … UNCLE.
NFLX Monthly
but what’s the next pattern or set of target areas? No flipping idea …nope, not going to do it.
“f’it dude, let’s go bowling”
XLP / $NYA … approaching .382 from all time low
Posted on September 28, 2017 Leave a Comment
if the XLP/NYA ratio finds support and appears to end an A-B-C correction THEN we ‘should’ see Volatility Spike and correspondingly a nice correction in equities. If this level fails, then we might see some consolidation or a little pullback but nothing that could spook the masses.
it might be noted that … right now we are levels of bullishness as measured by market vane that we haven’t seen since ..yes, you got it the 2007 top.
a plunging liquidating sell-off should, ultimately be bought .. as I still don’t think this run is over but I do believe we are long overdue for a nice pullback. W/ the options expiration and most mutual funds legally bound NOT to sell and be invested at all times I don’t think we’ll see anything till next week, if at all.
Note the chart below ..
- XLP/NYA – candles
- XIV (inverse VIX) blue line
- NOTE: a most inflections of the XIV (up or down) the ratio either led or gave a heads up that volatility would increase or decrease.
- Our thesis is the ratio ‘should’ find support on the .382 from the all time low in 2007 and correspondingly cause an uptick in volatility and a market sell off.
- A CLOSE (WEEKLY) BENEATH THE .382 WILL TARGET A LOWER MEASURED MOVE TARGET. IF THIS HAPPENS EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OR MINOR FITS AND STARTS BUT NOTHING TO KNOCK YOUR SOCKS OFF. WOULD WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE RATIO.
TBT Monthly LOG approaching LONG TERM trend line break out (?)
Posted on September 27, 2017 Leave a Comment
5 waves down showing a valid count …
note, log trend line coming into play … we weekly or monthly close above that line would, IMHO, signify the bottom in rates for a long time to come is in place.
Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018
Posted on September 25, 2017 Leave a Comment
04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below. Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection. we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now. Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside. Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS) Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.
Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002. From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively. Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.
Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.
Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.
Bart
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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.
Bart
December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.
ORCL Monthly
Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014
Posted on September 25, 2017 Leave a Comment
September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.
Bart
ORCL Monthly
I found this interesting … BABA vs AMZN
Posted on September 24, 2017 Leave a Comment
I love ratio analysis … X/Y. If X stronger then the chart goes up and if Y is stronger then the chart goes down.
the AMZN/BABA ratio is showing some signs of a coming bounce in the strength of AMZN vs BABA:
- .618 retracement from the all time low of the ratio
- a ‘basic’ minimum downside projection from the neckline of the ratio
- bullish divergence on the weekly RSI …
as you can see … AMZN took the strength from BABA for about a year .. then they were neck-in-neck (shown as the H+S developing) then in June 2017 BABA took off and started to outperform …
will be interesting to watch … found it interesting this morning.
Bart
Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again
Posted on September 17, 2017 Leave a Comment
09/17/2017 – well, as you know, the SELL PATTERN on the NYSE Index got smoked ..NOTE the gap UP RIGHT AT THE PATTERN LEVEL. that’s a failed pattern …
now, the XIV has hit the target zone but I’ve updated it based on the most recent action. It has NOT made a new high and is still in the zone for a SELL XIV or “BUY” Volatility. Stay tuned ….
If you go the XLP / $NYA chart you can see a little lower on that ratio could push the XIV up and into the next zone for the sell. All best are off if we daily close above “wrong above here” or, if you want just a little more risk above the hold high on the XIV.
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09/04/2017 – as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal. If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower. that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.
we have:
- dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
- we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
- if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV
probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.
also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.
Happy Labor Day.
Bart
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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever. We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play. No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country. Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.
that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.
we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93. why did it stop there?
when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.
additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.
we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…
So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.
07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs. Sheesh! But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …
Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception. Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.
NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …
this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:
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XLP / $NYA – wow, what a “perfect” sell pattern on the ratio – means BUY equities (if it fails, watch out) UPDATE
Posted on September 17, 2017 Leave a Comment
09/17/2016 – as you can see below, this SELL the ratio (BUY THE NYA Index) worked very nicely. Again, for those of you new to my blog the concept is this:
- Me or You individually don’t do a darn thing to move the market. It’s the INSTITUTIONS that make the market. When they get ‘risk adverse’ they move into ‘stuff’ we need to live .. aka Staples (XLP)
- Using ratio analysis – in this case XLP (ETF) / NYSE Index (the largest index out there) we can see what ‘they’ (the collective they) are thinking …
- IF the ratio is going UP then XLP (Staples) are stronger than the overall market … read: the institutions are moving into ‘conservative names’ and are “risk adverse.’
- IF the ratio is going DOWN then XLP (Staples) are weaker than the overall market…read: the institutions are moving out of ‘conservative names’ and are ‘risk on.’
- Using PATTERNS we can ‘see’ potential inflection points for the ratio and make investments accordingly.
In the charts below we can see:
- POLARITY – during the 2007-2009 drop, you can see that the ratio EXPLODED higher and promptly ran into major resistance. This level held for years but was finally broken thru in/around 2015-2016.
- The polarity principle is former R becomes Support (and vice versa) so the red arrows turn into green arrows (representing Support)
- Based on the current length and (my opinion) an overextended market the probability of this ratio stopping at the blue highlighted region is more (again my opinion) than the ratio slicing thru this area.
- IF it does THEN the lower level (highlighted orange) is the next logical stop.
- ‘Basic’ Trend line channel … note we are approaching the lower portion of it
- Multiple retracement levels – the .382 from the all time low of 2008 is key
- An RSI finding monthly support which began every move UP in the ratio.
- note the second chart below and what this did to the NYSE Index.
- We have measured moves (solid and dashed blue arrows) showing the ‘largest’ corrective move in the ratio since inception
- Note: the dashed blue line is using the “close” and not the wicks that tried to get thru this key level on the ratio
One last chart … note, IF the ratio is BULLISH then we have (again all probability) been carving out an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction labeled below.
- w/ this type of correction the ‘C’ wave is sometimes 1.618*’A’ which you can see nicely hits where 1=5 of the C wave. So, shown below in the light blue shaded area are potential zones for the reversal.
So, monitor this ratio for a weekly signal reversal candle (bullish) and this should market a correction .. .I’m not calling for a crash or a bear market or any of that … it’s about ‘time’ for a nice thump. How deep it goes…? No idea but I’ll certainly be watching this ratio to give me a heads up on where to buy.
Here’s the DAILY ratio w/ NYSE Index overlaid on top of the ratio … note the ‘SELL RATIO’ and ‘BUY EQUITIES’ …this ratio works.
Here’ the MONTHLY NYSE Index:
I did a .786 AB-CD projection from the all time low in 1974 and that hit the 1.27 extension (monthly) – where we are right now. Also, take note of the blue arrows … doing a count where 1=5 we get to 12,500 ish. So, again, would expect some sort of resistance to be forming – albeit soon.
one last … folks 2 weeks till quarter end. I hate to add opinion here but do you really think THEY (the big guys/gals) are really going to sell this market as we approach an AWESOME quarter end? Ummmmm, not I. So, the real shenanigans should start the first week of October, if at all …
hope you have had and are having a good weekend.
Bart
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here’s the power of this ratio:
- https://bartscharts.com/2016/05/08/xlp-nya-update/
- ratio BOTTOMS, at the BUY pattern of the ratio – SELL equities
- https://bartscharts.com/2016/03/30/xlp-nya-update-pay-attention/
- when the ratio TOPS then BUY equities
- we have a wonderful SELL the ratio pattern which means Equities should be bottoming for a BUY swing trade of the US equity structure.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON … if/when the patterns fail (and they do) the market breathes in the direction of the failure. Note, we have some VERY strong thrust into the pattern level and this “usually” means the pattern will fail BUT you never know do you? So now for the best part of the pattern recognition world the “if-then”.
IF the pattern works, equities should bottom for a nice BUY (swing trade – not long term for now … )
IF the pattern fails, equities will continuing selling off and we should look for the NEXT pattern to play … make sense?
Here’s the “perfect” sell pattern:
Bart's Charts 