$TSLA – nice BUY pattern emerging
Posted on September 10, 2017 Leave a Comment
09/10/2017 – here’s an update to TSLA. I know another 16% drop from current levels seems excessive .. BUT in that area we have polarity, a bunch of ratios and a SQUARE ROOT target. Also, if you look closely, we have a WEEKLY gap from 282-285 to monitor. It’s still open.
Over the coming weeks, would certainly LIKE a drop to occur.
Again, not sure (am never sure) if this will occur. If we lose the first support/buy level then 240’s is a reasonable next target…a weekly close above 372 would negate this possibility.
Bart
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07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.
the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.
if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …
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02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA. Tons going on in my life .. all good.
As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.
Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together. For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.
WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.
Cheers and rock on, ok?
Bart
04/05/2016
As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.
so, patterns work and patterns fail. want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done. don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.
Bart
so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.
as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.
in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.
and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level? 3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….
- pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME. Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
- this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.
watch this level closely.
as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …
Posted on September 9, 2017 Leave a Comment
7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working. IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.
once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH. I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.
have a great weekend ..
Bart
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05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.
this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.
Bart
03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle. Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!
so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e. “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.
a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.
bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower
09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.
Here’s an update:
- DIS monthly
- Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
- Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback. I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
- watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
- DIS daily
- note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH. If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.
DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …
Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.
B
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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Note, the Adams Pitchfork. I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …
Bart
$DIS (Disney) short set up
Posted on September 9, 2017 Leave a Comment
09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.
Here’s an update:
- DIS monthly
- Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
- Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback. I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
- watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
- DIS daily
- note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH. If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.
DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …
Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.
B
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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Note, the Adams Pitchfork. I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …
Bart
UTX
Posted on September 5, 2017 Leave a Comment
was cruising the charts after work today and came across UTX. 3 AB=CD’s on a monthly usually cause resistance. which, it appears they have … note, when you multiply 1.05946*AB=CD you get the exact high. 1.05946 being the ratio used for the Pythagorean Scale of Music and the 12th root of 2.
anyway, could be a mirror image foldback starting .. stay tuned.
B
Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again
Posted on September 4, 2017 Leave a Comment
09/04/2017 – as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal. If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower. that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.
we have:
- dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
- we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
- if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV
probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.
also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.
Happy Labor Day.
Bart
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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever. We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play. No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country. Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.
that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.
we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93. why did it stop there?
when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.
additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.
we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…
So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.
07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs. Sheesh! But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …
Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception. Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.
NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …
this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:
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BITCOIN Investment Trust … why did it stop today? UPDATE to the UPDATE
Posted on September 3, 2017 2 Comments
09/03/2017 – Update as of Sunday 09/03/2017. Folks, sometimes the PATTERNS/numbers work and sometimes they don’t. This time, appears the numbers we respected and we had a very large sell-off in $GBTC. Stay defensive for now .. a move into the high 400’s isn’t out of the question after such a parabolic run.
Good weekend to all … B
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08/31/2017 – well Barron’s nailed the high in the US Dollar Index declaring the “Mighty Dollar” but this one hasn’t been as reliable as the ‘top or bottom’ caller when something makes the front page.
so, below you’ll see an updated Bitcoin Investment Trust update … sure looks like it’s hitting some strong resistance. Still believe this is an accident waiting to happen …
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07/02/2017 – Barron’s .. the ultimate contrarian indicator. 🙂 For the time being, at least, we still have the upper target out there and, additionally, the corrective sequence sure looks like it wants another move down. CAVEAT EMPTOR
Bart
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05/25/2017 – I hate to do the ‘could have and would have and should have’ when using charts. Those of you who have been following me know that. I wanted to get to this chart before the open to just give it a shot … was on travel and in the airport yesterday and I kept seeing the PARABOLIC ROCKET SHIP of BITCOIN …couldn’t wait to throw some geometry on the chart.
When we see parabolic moves – THINK LOGS. It’s why the darn things were created in the first place.
As you can see below .. we are stretched and could go higher but today it ran smack into a LOG AB=CD and a key LOG trend line .. resistance was to be expected. You can also see – and why not – that there is another set of targets higher. I’ve also included the NYSE Bitcoin index … it’s data isn’t updated yet but you can see that it also ran smack into the GRAVITY CENTER. (I used the technique taught to us in elementary school on how to make a circle using three points. (dead serious). Again, for you my loyal readers, I didn’t know if it would work. You get to the point where you can ‘see it’ …
For now … man, it’s great to get on the rocket ship and ride it but there was always a REASON we landed w/ 2000 lbs of gas. Always .. because if you ran out of gas, your screwed. When parabolic blast off end they don’t end w/ a whimper .. .they THUMP hard.
Caveat Emptor for the Bitcoin craze ….
Bart
BITCOIN Investment Trust … why did it stop today? UPDATE
Posted on August 31, 2017 Leave a Comment
08/31/2017 – well Barron’s nailed the high in the US Dollar Index declaring the “Mighty Dollar” but this one hasn’t been as reliable as the ‘top or bottom’ caller when something makes the front page.
so, below you’ll see an updated Bitcoin Investment Trust update … sure looks like it’s hitting some strong resistance. Still believe this is an accident waiting to happen …
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07/02/2017 – Barron’s .. the ultimate contrarian indicator. 🙂 For the time being, at least, we still have the upper target out there and, additionally, the corrective sequence sure looks like it wants another move down. CAVEAT EMPTOR
Bart
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05/25/2017 – I hate to do the ‘could have and would have and should have’ when using charts. Those of you who have been following me know that. I wanted to get to this chart before the open to just give it a shot … was on travel and in the airport yesterday and I kept seeing the PARABOLIC ROCKET SHIP of BITCOIN …couldn’t wait to throw some geometry on the chart.
When we see parabolic moves – THINK LOGS. It’s why the darn things were created in the first place.
As you can see below .. we are stretched and could go higher but today it ran smack into a LOG AB=CD and a key LOG trend line .. resistance was to be expected. You can also see – and why not – that there is another set of targets higher. I’ve also included the NYSE Bitcoin index … it’s data isn’t updated yet but you can see that it also ran smack into the GRAVITY CENTER. (I used the technique taught to us in elementary school on how to make a circle using three points. (dead serious). Again, for you my loyal readers, I didn’t know if it would work. You get to the point where you can ‘see it’ …
For now … man, it’s great to get on the rocket ship and ride it but there was always a REASON we landed w/ 2000 lbs of gas. Always .. because if you ran out of gas, your screwed. When parabolic blast off end they don’t end w/ a whimper .. .they THUMP hard.
Caveat Emptor for the Bitcoin craze ….
Bart
I STILL think this is a big deal … Utilities… an update
Posted on August 24, 2017 1 Comment
08/24/2017 – hard to believe it’s been a YEAR since I last posted on the Utilities … at the time, as you can see below, the DJ Utilities Average was about to equal it’s measured move (the blue arrows) along w/ hitting a 3 drive monthly pattern at the 2nd drives 1.618 expansion target. The market DID REACT but not in the manner expected. While this number did stop the market in it’s tracks, we have ultimately blown thru this pattern and it has now failed. Folks, that is a big deal … monthly patterns like this are USUALLY (the operative word) walls of china for support or resistance.
So, as long as the Utilities are continuing higher … rates ain’t budging in my mind.
You can also see below some ‘future’ targets to consider.
Wow, that was an epic failure of a monthly pattern …
Bart
August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking? Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned. the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT? watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.
Bart
6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
PCLN continuing to monitor and update as an FYI it hit the top of the circle!
Posted on August 18, 2017 Leave a Comment
08/18/2017 – been a long time since we looked at PCLN. Frankly, when a pattern like the one at 1600 fails, it’s just time to step aside. so, today, I took a peak at the first big move down and the eye was drawn to the radius.
so, in the world I live … it appears that it the top of the circle. That’s the reason for the sell off occurring now.
🙂
Bart
PS – will try to update for the next opportunity.
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1/21/2016 – continuing to update. note, didn’t go down and complete the pattern. Support held at 1459.
where are we now … we have 3 ratio’s coming together at current levels but could go up to 1560 or 1570… monitor the 1528 and 1515 level closely as DAILY closes below those levels could spell trouble.
again, read down below when everything came together at 1600. that is why I still favor the downside.
12/30/2016 – PCLN seeking to fill gaps? note the first target is the ‘basic’ ab=cd at 1431. also, read below … the 1600 level was the convergence of 5 major patterns.
11/12/2016 – well PLCN went up and hit the level shown below. Folks that’s 5 monthly patterns on PCLN. IT SHOULD BE MONSTEROUS RESISTANCE for PCLN to go higher. As always, patterns do fail and they do work so it’s all probability. Also, when we go down to the daily time frame NOTE the perfect AB-CD in price and time. This completed the butterfly sell pattern and it’s extremely helpful when TIME of the last leg of the butterfly balances itself …also, note the ‘classic island reversal opportunity” where all we need to complete is a gap down below the shaded yellow box and this puppy could get rolling.
last thing – there are targets a little higher so any strategy should take that into account ..but, for now, we have 5 MONTHLY PATTERNS COMPLETING ON PCLN.
TAKE NOTE!
Bart
10/9/2016
PCLN found support on the “polarity” from the IPO and, essentially, negated the mirror image foldback pattern discussed below. What now?
If you take a look at the long term chart, again, you’ll see some powerful sell patterns all coming together. as for right now, appears we are in no mans land w/ no pattern (buy or sell) present.
here’s the patterns present:
- 1.1618 extension from the IPO high
- note the black arrow going up from the post IPO low to the IPO high. That same “move” is present into the target area. the black arrow is “copy” and “pasted” from the IPO to current market prices.
- 3 drive to a top – the blue triangles
- 1,2,3,4,5 reverse point wave
- a “perfect” Butterfly Sell pattern – (it has an AB=CD present in the last leg of the Butterfly)
who knows if it will get that high right now .. but certainly realize that 1600-1625 has a TON of resistance.
B
02/01/2016
as you can see below, the light blue trend line below was taken out. now we are approaching major support as shown by the polarity principle. some bid thrust/candles going into this level so this will be a key test in the coming days/weeks. if we lose this level, then expect 1.27 level to be attacked in the high 800’s.
12/20/2015: update to PCLN.
one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.
one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.
so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below. also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points. I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.
this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.
anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.
Folks, this mirror image got smoked. Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.
Where are we now?
Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level. I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …
here’s the MONTHLY picture …
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
keep an eye out on Solar … ratio analysis
Posted on August 7, 2017 Leave a Comment
my fellow CMT’r David Keller did an excellent post around solar stocks.
frankly, I never even looked at them before … so after reading the post I thought ‘why not do a TAN (solar ETF) / XLE (energy) ratio and see what it tells us …
certainly looks like we are coming close to the moment of truth where a ‘trend change’ in a long term log trend line breakout it possible.
put the solar world on your radar and watch this ratio closely …
Bart
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