XLP / NYA ratio analysis update
Posted on October 26, 2017 Leave a Comment
10/26/2017 – as you know, we were looking for support to hold on a .382 retracement of the XLP/NYA ratio. this support would cause a bounce or a move higher in the ratio and therefore bring volatility into the market. NOT EVEN CLOSE … that level has been pierced and now lower targets are shown.
folks, if your thinking of shorting I would wait .. when .382’s from all time lows don’t even cause a weekly/monthly move then something bigger is at hand going on …
I did some basic cycle work to show a time zone when the next support could come in December 2017-April 2018.
Until we elect a weekly or monthly signal reversal candle in this key ratio I wouldn’t touch the short side.
Bart
Pound … almost time? UPDATE to the UPDATED and UPDATED 10/22/2017
Posted on October 22, 2017 Leave a Comment
10/22/2017 – pound smacked into a wall of China resistance area. this one is tough … as you can see below, we did NOT work the triangle correctly and the rally continued into the polarity zone. the reason it’s tough is because of the very nice and basic time cycle shown below. it’s almost perfect and, for roughly 30 years, this cycle has caused the pound to explode higher … the ‘middle cycle’ in the time of 2000-2002 based for a while before exploding. so, do you trust POLARITY of the CYCLE? Call me crazy but I’m in favor of the cycle for now and will be looking for a BUY opportunity over the coming weeks/months as the ENTIRE WORLD has stops right above the Polarity Wall of China resistance area ….I’ll just try to look for a pattern.
it will work or it won’t … a very interesting time indeed.
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03/22/2017 – Pound carving out a triangle and then a dump into the 1.17? Only time will tell.
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12/26/2016 – still looks like we have a little more time to go into the lows. perhaps a little lower at the targets shown (?)
USD vs Japanese Yen coming close to resolution (?)
Posted on October 22, 2017 Leave a Comment
10/22/2017 – we discussed the ‘RSI SHIFT’ below. taking note of it again …have been on the sidelines w/ regards to the USD vs YEN as I’m waiting for resolution of the downtrend line shown …
note: still in the ‘maybe’ camp of 2 being done … so were going to be watching the YEN very closely in the coming days/weeks. In the past, YEN strength hasn’t been too good for US Stocks …
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here’s some work that I’ve been doing on the YEN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=yen
just taking a look at the weekly RSI and, when I trained under Constance Brown she said “the market will tell you when it’s shifting, watch the RSI zones for clues.”
as you can see below … the, what I believe, multi-decade wave 5 occurred in 10/2011 and a VERY powerful advance occurred. You’ve read about my chaos w/in the YEN and how I got stopped out something like 6-8 times (I’ve tried to flush it from my memory) in around 76 ..(yes, 76! and, no one said this was going to be easy!) for what I was expecting was going to be a monstrous ride.
anyway, note how support SHIFTED up after the decades long bear trend … (see dashed green lines) and how, after this correction – which might be pretty much complete it the support and resistance has now shifted down (see dashed red lines) ….
I’m in no mans land right now .. while I believe another advance of the USD against the YEN may be forthcoming I would have really liked to see the RSI resistance SHIFT back up into the 80’s. So .. while our ‘count’ isn’t complete in this wave, I’m going to step aside and see what happens the rest of the month.
as you can see w/ the ???? it’s time to sit on my hands and see what plays out … that’s only me. you do what you want and follow our plan, as always.
Bart
Proctor and Gamble Pattern
Posted on October 21, 2017 Leave a Comment
PG – lot’s going on here. went up and hit 1.618 extension last week …monthly. daily showing 3 drives to a top also …
KO Coca Cola
Posted on October 21, 2017 Leave a Comment
KO is flirting w/ another breakout to the upside near/around all time highs …
note:
- the monthly .618 price projection is the ‘reason’ for the resistance at 45.66
- the TIME component is .618 the last run and it’s hitting right now …
- perhaps, a double top?
- 3 drives to a top (dashed orange lines) present
IF we get a very strong weekly close higher, then 61 area is the next ‘logical’ stopping point ….
STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 06/09/2019
Posted on October 21, 2017 1 Comment
——————————————————————————————————————–06/09/2019 – well, from our point labeled ‘e’ it’s been straight down. From an Elliott perspective we are in another wave lower and it sure doesn’t look good for the home team. expect lower prices in the coming weeks, months. this doesn’t look good.
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02/28/2019 – well, pattern recognition says you should always BUY or SELL the first AB=CD in an up or down trend. well, the STOXX Banks are almost there w/ regard to an AB=CD sell pattern. So far, the ‘thesis’ around a multi year triangle has worked which means, ultimately, this index will plunge to new lows lower than 20012. Is the next leg down upon us … if the PATTERN works, then yes. If it doesn’t we’ll CTRL-ALT-DEL and look for another pattern. HEADS UP OVER THERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC!
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05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.
Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person. “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …
So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.
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04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions. Man, that took a while to break down!
10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.
*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …
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08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below. A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …
Bart
07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive. key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.
Be well my friends … Bart
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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles) on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.
also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming. in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform. however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely. A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed. Monitor the ratio for clues ..
Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
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