S&P 500 logical stopping point …
Posted on March 31, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/31/2018 – I love measured moves. Frankly I think they are 1/ the easiest and most powerful indicators we have as technicians and 2/ one of the least used.
If you remember it’s how what we used to make an amazing buy on crude as it was plunging into it’s lows … measured moves on monthly/weekly charts is good.
in this case we are looking at the S&P 500 cash. note, since the 2009 bull run the largest correction we’ve encountered has been 14.70% in/around 2015-2016.
if we take that SAME corrective move of 14.75% and overlay it on top of the monthly we come in around 2451.
now, if we do ‘basic’ pattern recognition work we have a perfect BUY right/in around that level. necking down to the daily (second chart below) you can see how all the numbers are coming together in/around 2451-2467. My take, IF (the big IF) this bull market has steam, then this level ‘should’ hold and we go up nicely …
now, it’s just a pattern and DOES NOT have to work – it’s just probability folks. that being said, trends are given life and and have life taken from them w/ failed patterns and patterns that work.
as for me, this level is 1/ the same corrective move of 14.7% and a near perfect BUY pattern as shown. makes it interesting …
Bart
GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018
Posted on March 31, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56. Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement. We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s. It’s do for a very nice bounce.
12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …
NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily
Posted on March 13, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.
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not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.
a word to the wise is sufficient …
Bart
Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018
Posted on March 4, 2018 1 Comment
target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.
Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018
Posted on March 4, 2018 Leave a Comment
target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.
Love you long time …? Does this pertain to the economy?
Posted on February 27, 2018 Leave a Comment
First off, I love the Hustle. I look forward to it every AM and thank my good friend MM for introducing me to it … they did a GREAT email today about ‘bang bang’ birth rates and it’s correlation to recessions over the past 15 years. As a data junky would certainly like more data BUT it’s a pretty compelling look at the ‘nasty’ affects of declining birth rates and their predictor of recessions.
note, I ‘see’ 5 waves up complete and an a-b-c Elliott Wave correction unfolding .. also, looks like a head and shoulders has formed so if you want the economy to keep humming you might want to … well, you get the point. LOLOLOLOLOL
The Hustle: https://thehustle.co/ ….. sign up these guys/gals rock!
Bart
DB .. KEY BUY PATTERN in work … like I said at the Chart Summit “not sure which work and which don’t” (pattern)
Posted on February 11, 2018 Leave a Comment
Deutsche Bank – they hold the largest amount of systemic risk in the global banking environment.
As discussed at the Chart Summit I love failed patterns. We have a BUY PATTERN appearing below on DB … if it holds, breathe a sigh of relief and a move upward ‘should’ occur and that ‘should’ relieve pressure on the system.
If it fails THEN that really isn’t good for the global economy. At all …
So, put DB on your watch list and see if the 13-15 level holds … if we break thru these levels to the downside, watch out as it’s going to get very interesting.
As always, thanks for visiting the site.
Bart
%AB = %CD and, well, that’s all she wrote …XIV
Posted on February 9, 2018 Leave a Comment
I don’t like to post ‘after the fact’ but I was on some business travel this week and away from my charts. A while ago I could see the parabolic rise occurring in the XIV (inverse VIX) and made a calculation using log percentage moves * .618. While the market pulled back (XIV) from this level it took almost the exact percentage moves to complete the pattern.
here’s the link to the post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2017/09/17/interesting-chart-xiv-inverse-vix-updated-and-updated-again-and-updated-again-2/
did I have ANY idea it was going to thump out of business. absolutely note .. but I did warn that parabolic rises never end well … here’s the chart.
O U C H ….and that’s all she wrote
GE – ratio analysis, it’s the lowest in 40+ years
Posted on February 3, 2018 1 Comment
02/03/2018
have been eyeing GE BUY for the past couple weeks and am still hawking the 13.70-14 area. decided to do a ratio analysis of GE/NYSE. Folks, it’s the lowest relative strength for GE versus the boarder market (NYSE) in 40+ years.
from a contrarian perspective .. this puppy is really really beaten up. am going to try and work on some ‘timing’ over the next couple days. NOTE – we are at ALL TIME LOWS in 40+ years on the ratio BUT have not made a NEW LOW on the price chart. hmmmm
12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …
Bart's Charts 