Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018
Posted on April 1, 2018 Leave a Comment
04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below. Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection. we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now. Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside. Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS) Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.
Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002. From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively. Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.
Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.
Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.
Bart
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.
Bart
December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.
ORCL Monthly
S&P 500 logical stopping point …
Posted on March 31, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/31/2018 – I love measured moves. Frankly I think they are 1/ the easiest and most powerful indicators we have as technicians and 2/ one of the least used.
If you remember it’s how what we used to make an amazing buy on crude as it was plunging into it’s lows … measured moves on monthly/weekly charts is good.
in this case we are looking at the S&P 500 cash. note, since the 2009 bull run the largest correction we’ve encountered has been 14.70% in/around 2015-2016.
if we take that SAME corrective move of 14.75% and overlay it on top of the monthly we come in around 2451.
now, if we do ‘basic’ pattern recognition work we have a perfect BUY right/in around that level. necking down to the daily (second chart below) you can see how all the numbers are coming together in/around 2451-2467. My take, IF (the big IF) this bull market has steam, then this level ‘should’ hold and we go up nicely …
now, it’s just a pattern and DOES NOT have to work – it’s just probability folks. that being said, trends are given life and and have life taken from them w/ failed patterns and patterns that work.
as for me, this level is 1/ the same corrective move of 14.7% and a near perfect BUY pattern as shown. makes it interesting …
Bart
GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018
Posted on March 31, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56. Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement. We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s. It’s do for a very nice bounce.
12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …
NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily
Posted on March 13, 2018 Leave a Comment
03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.
a word to the wise is sufficient …
Bart
Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018
Posted on March 4, 2018 1 Comment
target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.
Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018
Posted on March 4, 2018 Leave a Comment
target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.
Love you long time …? Does this pertain to the economy?
Posted on February 27, 2018 Leave a Comment
First off, I love the Hustle. I look forward to it every AM and thank my good friend MM for introducing me to it … they did a GREAT email today about ‘bang bang’ birth rates and it’s correlation to recessions over the past 15 years. As a data junky would certainly like more data BUT it’s a pretty compelling look at the ‘nasty’ affects of declining birth rates and their predictor of recessions.
note, I ‘see’ 5 waves up complete and an a-b-c Elliott Wave correction unfolding .. also, looks like a head and shoulders has formed so if you want the economy to keep humming you might want to … well, you get the point. LOLOLOLOLOL
The Hustle: https://thehustle.co/ ….. sign up these guys/gals rock!
Bart
DB .. KEY BUY PATTERN in work … like I said at the Chart Summit “not sure which work and which don’t” (pattern)
Posted on February 11, 2018 Leave a Comment
Deutsche Bank – they hold the largest amount of systemic risk in the global banking environment.
As discussed at the Chart Summit I love failed patterns. We have a BUY PATTERN appearing below on DB … if it holds, breathe a sigh of relief and a move upward ‘should’ occur and that ‘should’ relieve pressure on the system.
If it fails THEN that really isn’t good for the global economy. At all …
So, put DB on your watch list and see if the 13-15 level holds … if we break thru these levels to the downside, watch out as it’s going to get very interesting.
As always, thanks for visiting the site.
Bart
%AB = %CD and, well, that’s all she wrote …XIV
Posted on February 9, 2018 Leave a Comment
I don’t like to post ‘after the fact’ but I was on some business travel this week and away from my charts. A while ago I could see the parabolic rise occurring in the XIV (inverse VIX) and made a calculation using log percentage moves * .618. While the market pulled back (XIV) from this level it took almost the exact percentage moves to complete the pattern.
here’s the link to the post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2017/09/17/interesting-chart-xiv-inverse-vix-updated-and-updated-again-and-updated-again-2/
did I have ANY idea it was going to thump out of business. absolutely note .. but I did warn that parabolic rises never end well … here’s the chart.
O U C H ….and that’s all she wrote
Bart's Charts 