had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update
Posted on April 14, 2017 Leave a Comment
04/14/2017 – just a quick update that we are really close or need a little bit more for the SRC to be invoked on AMZN. also, note the shooting star candle present and also the doji like candles that started most corrective moves.
probability lends itself to be cautious and sit on ones hands to assess the next couple weeks of AMZN price action.
as you can see by the chart below a “normal” correction has been around -30 percent ….
have a GREAT weekend w/ family and friends.
B
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04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:
After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946. the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).
As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base. That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.
Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.
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Dow Jones Transports – almost parabolic UPDATE to the UPDATED
Posted on April 6, 2017 Leave a Comment
04/06/2017 – Transports hit the below resistance zone and targets and have since rallied to make new highs. What’s interesting this time is the time symmetry between the peaks in 1999,2008 and now. Also, note that they seem to always want to go up and make a slight new high before further correcting.
The time component is what has me interesting and cautious on the DJ Transportation Average – for now.
Thanks for reading …
Bart
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As is usually the case, the transports are getting a lot of attention, now, and rightly so because they do look heavy and are a key ingredient to this incredible ride up.
I don’t know what makes up the transport index.
I don’t care what makes up the index.
I like geometry.
IN SEPTEMBER OF 2014 THE GEOMETRY SAID THAT THE TRANSPORTS WERE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM (PARDON THE PUN)
Here’s the updated chart:
Dow Jones Transports UPDATED
September 17, 2014: below you will see some of the continuing work I have done on the transports. Quite simply, an incredible move …
there are, however, some things we can learn from this from a PATTERN perspective:
- my “job” as a PATTERN chartist is to do my best to find the patterns and then present them to you, my readers. (thanks for the following also) As a PATTERN chartist you are NEVER wrong. The PATTERN works or it doesn’t it … it has NOTHING to do w/ you. On long term time frames, well, the patterns are “easier” to construct. An all time low to a “former” all time high gives you AMAZING projection capabilities. In fact, it is one of our easiest PATTERNS to form – the “zig zag or AB=CD” PATTERN. Folks this formed on the Transports and got SMOKED … not even a token of resistance. Wow …
- when a “zig-zag” or “AB=CD” PATTERN fails it will usually go to 1.27 or 1.618 of the PATTERN.
- so, what do we have “now”
- note the all time low of 13.43 was on July 05,1932 a mere 30,024 days ago.
- using that low and a 1.27 AB=CD we get a target of 9149
- note, the “old” all time high in 2000 to the 2009 high was a 1.8877 extension (musical note). sometimes, the PATTERNS repeat the same harmonic. NOPE not today … blew threw it.
- also, you can see the blue arrow projections and the “minimum” objective of the head and shoulders BULLISH top that formed comes in around 8880
some other projections shown for the Transports
- note the all time low of 13.43 was on July 05,1932 a mere 30,024 days ago.
Since this move is going PARABOLIC it’s sometimes helpful to bring out the old geometry … this is simply the technique of how to draw a circle from 3 points. (full disclosure: I have NO IDEA where the GRAVITY CENTER is going to end up.) Note, when using this technique our gravity center is, basically, the zone for the past major top in the Transports.
finding the gravity center
now that we have found the gravity center we can get to work ….
- note, the gravity center (blue horizontal line) is the “reason” for the major tops
- note from 1994-1999 price “hugs” and rolls right up into the top. that tells us we have a nice gravity center …
- note also that when we draw, from the gravity center, harmonic trend lines we find the “major reason” for support and resistance …
- when projecting from a neckline, remember, the depth of the neck is how to project UP (in this case) to project a minimum target. (again, it’s minimum target, NOT the target or though it can be)
gravity center harmonics
CLIFF NOTES: this is an incredibly powerful move. Some more targets are coming into play as noted above. when the PATTERN around 7600 failed the vacuum up was to be expected.
June 12, 2014: more than likely, you saw my long term transports post a couple months ago and as this target got attacked I was truly looking for a “little” resistance. I mean, come on, it was the ALL TIME LOW to the “old” ALL TIME HIGH and we have a 1.618 extension RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LEVEL. As patterns go .. this was a doozie. However, as patterns go, it failed. Folks, it didn’t even put up a fight …
so, I hit “erase all” on the chart and, quite frankly, left it alone. the joy of patterns and charting …
I went back to it tonight and I still think we have a pattern forming so I went back and said “self, what did it do the last time we surged past an old high and into a new high? Well, guess what? It surged thru the 1.618 extension in 2007-2008 an stopped on the 1.8877 extension! TILT … 1.8877? Well, that is exactly a major seventh ration in the equal octave scale of music. So .. perhaps it did that again? Please see below …we smacked into the minor and, quite frankly, the major is still out there. However — this sure looks like a MONTHLY 3 DRIVES TO A TOP pattern.
Keep the mindset (defensive) of ‘breaking a swing low’ …until we do break a weekly or monthly swing low this puppy will still keep running but if we break 2 or more weekly swing lows … we could see this thing drop to the old highs at 5600. Stay tuned …
What a run! Hugh?
Also, please be advised that a reader corrected me on the price and time of the old time low. I did some more research and it appears the low was in the 1930’s around 30 points lower than the one in the late 1800’s. Negligible when we are up at 8000 BUT extremely important.
When you look at the Yahoo Finance Chart below – try to disregard this is the entire life cycle of the Transports – and just look at the symmetry of the 3 drives to a top pattern that is appearing.
notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top
had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update
Posted on April 6, 2017 Leave a Comment
04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:
After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946. the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).
As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base. That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.
Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.
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Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED and UPDATED again
Posted on April 1, 2017 Leave a Comment
04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!
per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting! Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.
it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …
also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.
one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.
Going to get really interesting.
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1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.
Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …
what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,
- there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
- the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
- the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
- we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
- see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
- note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish
So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.
Bart
PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….
12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post
- bearish divergence – check
- 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
- SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
- note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
- Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.
CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher. We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution. Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70? Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.
11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog. the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s. it’s been a nice run …
is there higher to go … yes.
but then …
here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios. Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.
also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001. Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.
last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works. here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis. I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:
- market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
- the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
- wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- wave 3 can’t be the shortest
- wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
- here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
- the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
- so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.
I honestly have no idea ….
Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:
- square root target
- the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
- the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
- EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
- the .382 from the all time high
- divergence set up on Monthly RSI
- ‘other’ extension and retracement targets
Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.
only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.
B
Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED
Posted on March 25, 2017 Leave a Comment
03/25/2017 – well looks like it went up into the zone discussed below. I’ve labeled the extension targets as 1.732 (square root of 3), 1.68179 (note the closes) a musical note and the projection was 1.27AB = CD. 1.27 is the square root of 1.618.
as you can see, it sold off but DID NOT give a weekly signal reversal so continue to monitor. Often times, it “likes” to go back to the level of the first failure around 60 as shown.
good weekend to you ..
B
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MSFT Microsoft UPDATED
Posted on March 25, 2017 Leave a Comment
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
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10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
BUY on MSFT in March 2009
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table
Sheep, Milk and the Kiwi …updated 03/23/2017 and the power of the RSI M’s and W’s
Posted on March 23, 2017 Leave a Comment
03/23/2017 – note this pattern on the KIWI.
Certainly looks like it ‘wants’ to go down and tag the level shown. last night I blogged about “cotton” banging into the first portion of the pretty big gap and it appears (please see below) that the “Milk Non-Fat Futures” has completed an upward correction and will plumb the lows again.
also, was taught a few years ago .. to watch the M and W’s on the RSI. This PATTERN when broken “usually” leads to some pretty powerful moves. I’ve highlighted past M’s in yellow below on the KIWI. See the M pattern setting up right now?
so, the thesis is we have a move lower in cotton, non-fat milk and that will cause the KIWI to move lower into the zone depicted below.
this thesis doesn’t even begin to hold water UNTIL the EEM stops rising – which could make it problematic. as shown, you can see how we are banging right into the ‘biggest’ measured move UP since 2011 (purple dashed arrow) and were also playing the polarity game. (S becomes R and R becomes S). Also, note we have overlapping .618/.786 at 42.
((sqrt 27.66)+1)^2 = 39.17 so we are half way around the circle at these levels.
it’s all probability, choose your poison and then choose a stop.
Bart
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7:1 sheep to people ratio in New Zealand
In New Zealand, there is roughly 7 sheep to every person. They have a lot of sheep and sheep = cotton, correct? The country has the highest density of sheep per capita in the world. However, this year has seen the sheep numbers fall to their lowest level in 75 years.
Around 1987 farmers to took to dairy farming and that overtook conventional sheep farming which until then had been the backbone of the New Zealand Economy. Take a look at the chart below … at most inflection points in Cotton Futures the KIWI followed suite.
KIWI and Cotton Futures .. they turn together
Mooooo
As discussed above, the dairy industry is the backbone of the economy. Prices have plunged.
Below is a chart showing Class III Milk future w/ the KIWI overlaid on top of it. Note, milk futures have completed a buy pattern so prices “should” start back up and therefore KIWI can potentially find some support. Emerging Market Currencies are at an extreme low w/ regard to sentiment.
note the brown line (KIWI vs USD) and how it tracks milk …
The next chart below is of Non Fat Milk futures (continuous monthly) and note the synchronization of tops and bottoms. These are the lowest prices in decades ….
Milk Nonfat Dry lowest in decades …
Here’s the KIWI today … decimated sentiment for EM Currencies, RECORD low dairy prices, cotton hanging in there and a big old thump into very oversold bullish divergence .. it’s going to start up today or soon.
KIWI vs USD Monthly
so this looks so PROMISING but when I put the EEM (Emerging Market ETF) w/ the KIWI overlaid on top of it I see a very nice symmetry BUT I also see a CLIFF OF SUPPORT that the EEM is about to fall off. OUCH ….
EEM:
note EEM and pay attention closely. IF WE ACCELERATE THRU THE 4+ YEAR SUPPORT THEN EM FX SHOULD FOLLOW …playing a bounce for the FX so this is a major area to watch for Risk and Reward …
Parabolic Velocity ….and $MO an update ….an update
Posted on March 23, 2017 Leave a Comment
03/22/2017 – it just keeps going higher and higher. Ps=0 is coming .. then it will drop like a rock.
note, the trendline didn’t break and it shot higher from that level .. the band played on.
Bart
… also, the parabolic picture is compressed w/ the two studies on the bottom. here’s a picture w/ the studies taken off:
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12/11: update to the update. again, still don’t know what Altria Group Inc. does. but I do know how to draw a trendline and it bounced off it and now IF it breaks below it on a daily close THEN it should go lower.
your 150 paged EBITDA, P&E, fundamental report complete in one chart. Pardon the sarcasm. Got hate mail on @stocktwits for this one also … it’s comical.
sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes the bar eats you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVLyB0Yc6I
Bart
11/4 – update. again, I don’t even know what the Altria Group Inc. does … but I do know that parabolic velocity can only hit a certain Ps=0. What the hell does that mean? Well it’s the VN diagram when fighting a high performance fighter. You see at ANY given time in a fight you have a certain airspeed, altitude and G that will give you a turn radius and turn rate. In order to NOT give up energy you wanted your sustained rate of turn/radius to stay constant …. if your going to rip the g’s on and get a really powerful turn RADIUS going then your going to give up energy…. so you better be right OR your going to have to UNLOAD and get energy back and that will make you arc like an albatross. Get it .. Ps=0 might not be the best turn rate or radius but you know that your not giving up any ENERGY.
MO … tons and tons of VELOCITY but guess what? to get that HIGH of a price and go parabolic “it” had to be all in and a certain point you ain’t got “no moe thrust” and it stops and falls.
is this the top? I have no idea, but having been in many many 2 circle and 1 circle fights you learn to SEE how your enemy is doing/reacting and this puppy ($MO) gave it ALL. It’s time to UNLOAD (go down) and get some more knots (ENERGY) up to make another run …
watching this one, a move down into high 40’s not out of the question …
first stop SHOULD BE the top of that read trend line …
Bart
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
Bart
buy your shirts now … Cotton getting ready to explode – Update to the Update
Posted on March 23, 2017 Leave a Comment
03/22/2017 – cotton has went up and tagged the lower boundary of a BIG GAP. “should” be pausing and pulling back …
I haven’t noticed the price of cotton shirts, underwear, what have you going up … have you? I don’t buy much anyway. But, however Cotton Futures are priced on the Exchange, you know I don’t know a thing about that. Just patterns …
Cotton’s up around 46% from levels described above. Folks, LOG percentage measured moves (extremes) work.
Cotton, who would have thunk it?
Bart
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03/14/2016 – my good friend JC (www.allstarcharts.com) just blogged about cotton and it jogged my memory that 15 months ago I blogged about a low coming in cotton. (I’m good at timing, right? LOL) But, time is the key component and the PRICE level just completed the same corrective move (-75%) that represented the largest corrective move – EVER.
just saying, Cotton could be rolling w/ like Mr Toads Wild Ride …here’s updated charts:
if your an ETF player, perhaps look at LONG BAL in/around these levels and stop out below 35?
Enjoy.
Bart
Wrong below 54.45 ….picture paints a thousand words. Two charts so here’s two thousand words.
Pound … almost time? UPDATE to the UPDATED
Posted on March 22, 2017 2 Comments
03/22/2017 – Pound carving out a triangle and then a dump into the 1.17? Only time will tell.
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12/26/2016 – still looks like we have a little more time to go into the lows. perhaps a little lower at the targets shown (?)
Bart's Charts 