Junk Bonds – December 31, 2023
Posted on December 31, 2023 1 Comment
Junk Bonds are extremely important … quite the nice SELL PATTERN has hit or, perhaps, just a little higher.
For the equity market (s) to continue higher, this SELL PATTERN needs to fail.
Also, notice the “time” component working … it’s been working nicely and, obviously, it’s not precise but it can give us a “warning sign” which, I believe it is … the warning “pay attention to Junk Bonds.”
Happy New Year to everyone … I promise 2024 is going to be a barn buster!
ENJOY IT!
NFLX – December 18, 2023
Posted on December 18, 2023 Leave a Comment
Had not posted in NFLX for a while and forgot (honestly) what a beat down they took but man – also – what a rally!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near term pullback w/ the .618 retracement approaching/hit w/ some daily bearish divergence. But, that being said, it bounced off major LONG TERM LOG TREND LINES and that means, for now, the band plays on … if we ever get back to the lower end of the log trend lines (key – LOG TREND LINES) I’d be a buyer. Of course, that would have been the one time it broke support! 🙂
Dow Jones Industrial Average – December 18, 2023
Posted on December 18, 2023 3 Comments
Reference Post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2021/01/20/how-logarithms-music-and-math-yield-40655-as-a-target-for-the-djia/
For those that have been following me a while, you’ll know I enjoy using some mathematical methods to derive targets. I’m not going to dive into the math behind these calculations but I am leaving a copy of the spreadsheet so you can see and test the hypothesis if you like. If/when I’m wrong, please let me know and I’ll correct.
Using logs and musical notes based on the equal octave scale of music, the note of “E” has shown up at pretty much THE major tops of our past century. 1987 and 2007. So, I just moved up another octave and calculate the 40K + ish target shown below. I was always wondering if … or how …we would get to that “number” and we are now w/in percent of that target.
What really gets me excited is that we have a ton of “other” targets coming in to this area/zone. Wowza … I honestly have NO IDEA what is going to happen … but things are certainly lining up.
Let’s wait and see!
IWM – December 18, 2023
Posted on December 18, 2023 Leave a Comment
Last post on IWM: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/03/iwm-february-3-2023/
The sell PATTERN worked from the last post but it really hasn’t gone anywhere – amazing that the “number” is still holding the bots, super computers, hedge funds, etc. from blowing thru it … all based on sacred geometry and music.
So, it’s not that much of a stretch to see this as a “bearish flat correction” in EWT and we are finishing/finished w/ the Wave C and IWM starts back down.
Did some very rudimentary timing work to get a feel for the timing … we could certainly go up a little more into resistance shown by the horizontal black line but let’s just wait and see what happens.
Last, the IWM “bottomed” on 161.8. Pfizer topped at 61.8 … can’t make this up folks. Cheers.
The above is the bearish case near/medium term for now … but when we have corrections like we do I always go back and work thru what Michael
Jenkins (www.stockcycleforecast.com) taught me w/ Mirror Image Foldbacks. They are AMAZING PATTERNS to see and follow and they “usually” will “fail” at the swing points but check this out … maybe? near term IWM keeps chugging up and then gets tanked? Hmmmmm ….
Banks/Financials – December 4, 2023
Posted on December 4, 2023 1 Comment
It’s all PATTERNS – at least for me.
Here are three VERY NICE SELL Patterns across 3 securities that represent a majority of the banks/financials that are out there. The PATTERNS are saying sell and, if you look at XLF below, the PATTERNS are only 2-4% away so it’s not that inconceivable that they could go up and tag those targets.
Look – folks WE WANT THEM TO GO UP AND COMPLETE the patterns because then we will have, what I consider a GREAT leading indicator to help us position on the short or long side – FAILED PATTERNS.
IF these patterns hold and work then the banks/financials start down which, invariably, will hit the equities. IF they FAIL then the banks/financials surge higher and the probability that this market melts up gains some higher probability.
So, watch these patterns, very closely. They will give us a good idea on where we are … in some of the briefs I do out there I ALWAYS talk about failed patterns, because they do fail, but these failures, in the market we are in now, are very powerful and indicative of what is “really” going on …
Cheers …
US Dollar Index – November 30, 2023
Posted on November 30, 2023 1 Comment
Last post on US Dollar: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/07/26/us-dollar-index-july-26-2023/
I’ve put a rudimentary “count” of the US Dollar below because we need to develop a gameplan for the coming Santa Claus rally or Santa Claus puts coal in everyone’s stocking …and, I have NO OVERT OPINION on which direction equities will or won’t go …
The US Dollar is VERY important for equities .. here’s an overlay of the S&P 500 and the USD … pretty much every inflection in the dollar leads to an inflection in the equities of the US.
Dollar up – equities down.
Dollar down – equities up.
If you have been following this blog for a while, you know I pretty much “live and die” by the measured move and I was watching the dollar corrective measured move like a hawk and it did not disappoint. It hit perfectly … here it is “real – near real time.”
That level hit nicely and the USD has moved nicely higher as shown below:
So, where are we ? Yes. LOL.
The count is very interesting and, knowing my golf game and counting strokes on the course I’ll give it my best shot. The bullish scenario came from my friends at Elliott Wave. They see the consolidation as a triangle … I didn’t, but it make sense.
This is a BULLISH DOLLAR and therefore BEARISH EQUITIES:
The next one just “looks” better and that’s an expanded flat which, if correct, makes this move down in the dollar probably the 1st of 5 to come in a C wave which will take the dollar substantially lower AND cause equities to find support/continue higher and/or dare I say rocket ship higher?
For now, the bearish dollar count below could rally a few days and then sell off again …
NO MATTER WHAT – FOR ANY OF THE SCENARIOS THE BLUE RECTANGLE ZONE WILL BE THE KEY. PERIOD.
What I’m “concerned” about is the TIME component of the bullish chart above. We are correcting a 5 wave move that was 15 years in the making. On the first wave two correction (a perfect ABDC OBTW) it took “two” of the blue measured moves before it started rocking and rolling again … the wave four correction had one of the blue arrows and the other wave down wasn’t an exact measured move but notice the TIME that it took … so, now, after this 15 year move your going to simply do one “blue measured move” correction down and that’s the a-b-c and off we go higher?
I just don’t think so …
VERY BIG DEAL FOR THE USD HERE AND NOW …
Get after it …
Natural Gas – November 28, 2023
Posted on November 28, 2023 Leave a Comment
Natural Gas is at a very key junction w/ regard to price and a bullish move.
This is based on the MAJOR buy pattern on the monthly shown below. That pattern hit w/ both PRICE and TIME and that is the reason this “huge support” shown is such a big deal on the Nat Gas.
For those of you suffering w/ me in UNG I offer this very well written piece that was published just recently:
https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/natural-gas-etfs-lessons-from-boil-and-ung-funds-in-2023
While I was aware of these type of situations having once been a CTA (focused on spot currency markets), I did not think it would effect this opportunity in such a way. Full disclosure I bought UNG in/around the mid 9’s and ran it all the way up to 34 and STILL OWN IT. Why … ?
Well, it’s not good investing – check.
BUT (always the “but”) I want to ride a wave from the very beginning (or what I thought was a BIG LOW) and go thru the ups and downs to understand how my FEELINGS/EMOTIONS would not only be reflected in how I viewed the chart and it’s price action but also how it actually felt to live thru the emotions of fear and greed just like they talk about w/in the “psychology of Elliott Wave.” So far, they have been pretty accurate.
So, folks, this ones a loser. My gameplan is to look for a low … I have another target down in the 3’s believe that one or not but really watch this PATTERN on NAT GAS to see if it holds.
No regrets .. it’s been a great year but this one has most definitely been in the “other” category. I’m going to put the best strategy in the world to work – HOPE- and look for that bounce up to around my entry and then gracefully exit this science experiment. Unless, of course, greed gets a hold of me and somehow I think this thing is really going to rocket to the moon … yeah.
That’s all she wrote.
Wheat – November 27, 2023
Posted on November 27, 2023 Leave a Comment
As I continue to track wheat we can see where more “measured moves” and projection PATTERNS are creating a very powerful BUY zone for wheat. That being said, it’s still a pretty far down there so patience is the key.
I hawked the DBA ETF (https://g.co/finance/DBA:NYSEARCA) for 2 years and got in prety much close to the low and am still in it long. So, if you go research it, you will find Wheat being a major commodity component in it’s weighting.
Would be “nice” to see DBA bottom down at that pattern level and Wheat to be at/around the the zone shown below for a GREAT BUY ….
I patiently wait and hawk and occasionally take a look at to see if my thesis is true OR I have to get out the earser and relook at the chart w/ a refresh pair of eyes.
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