DJIA since 1897
Posted on April 10, 2024 Leave a Comment
Appears we have a pretty important trend line w/ big bearish divergence on the Monthly.
Note, cropped the wick in 1929 to hit the highs in 2000 and 2022.
The Markets – March 24, 2024
Posted on March 24, 2024 1 Comment
The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.
As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.
Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.
Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:
The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:
On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.
If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.
Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.
Where are you Mr. KRE?
The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.
The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.
I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.
We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?
Larry showed this over the weekend:
when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:
A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.
When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.
The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.
There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …
NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.
Here’s LLY parabolic:
Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:
The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.
If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.
I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.
ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …
IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.
IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.
MANAGE THE RISK … that’s all we can do.
Bitcoin – March 17, 2024
Posted on March 17, 2024 3 Comments
I feel “pretty good” about this count as it’s been tracking ever since the “top” at 3.
Certainly appears we are in THE 5th wave … it could mark a 1 but either way, when complete, I do expect quite the meltdown.
No rules have been broken thus far –
- 2 can’t go below the start of 1 – check
- 3 can’t be the shortest – check
- 4 can’t overlap the beginning of 1 – check
Thus – looks like a 5th wave is in progress. the most recent price action “feels” like a 3rd of a 3rd so expect some up down up to complete 3, then a nice correction for 4 and then up up into the 5th of the 5th wave.
Targets, for now, are in/around 102-123. Will tighten as these levels approach ..
Also, don’t be surprised if it parabolically takes off also …
NYSE Index – March 03, 2024
Posted on March 3, 2024 Leave a Comment
The concept of a “square out” is one of the most important in all of harmonic trading.
In this case, we believe that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … they are a NUMBER and they are intertwined. Say price makes a high (or low) of 50 … then 50 seconds, 50 hours, 50 days, 50 degrees of planetary motion (time), etc. etc. are spun out.
For the NYSE Index we have a BIG square out approaching.
The all time low on the NYSE Index was on 10/03/1974. That was, from tomorrow, 18050 calendar days ago.
18050-17728 (Friday’s close) = 322 points.
We are 322 points away from a HUGE square out of PRICE and TIME.
Take note of the last “big high” about 2 years ago … in that case, the market closed at 17,259 which so happened to be EXACTLY 17,259 calendars from the all time low. That is the significance of the red trendline – it’s the 45 degree angle and 1:1 or 1 point/day trendline. We REALLY want to NYSE Index to climb another 300 points to tag that red trend line … perhaps that happens mid-late next week.
Additionally, we have pretty large bearish divergence on the MONTHLY RSI and we have the same “fractal” pattern that existed in the move before the 2020 thump.
Then, just a little bit higher we have the measured moves which have been responsible for EVERY UP MOVE since the beginning of this index.
I sense/ believe, we are getting very close to a top (maybe THE top but I sense “A” top) ….
You’re probably aware the fear and greed sentiment indicators are thru the roof w/ extreme greed and then “Mr. Reliable” shows up … the “magazine cover indicator”
Last, here’s the geometry of the NYSE Index derived from the BIG MOVE off the low from 1974.
On this chart you will notice I put the “retracements” at the lows of 2002, 2009 and 2020 using the “node” of the all time low. The reason I do this is to check and see (Ronald Regan – TRUST but verify) if this is a significant node. As you can see, drawing the retracement grids using the all time low as near perfect.
2002 = .382 retracement
2009 = .618 retracement
2020 = .382 retracement.
This is a good number …how good?
Well, 350*51.50 = 18, 025 which so happens to be the exact angle of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Just saying …. 😉
That vector (blue arrow) represents the “rock hitting the water” and creates the harmony and music ….
And, of course, all this means is it could very well blow thru this level and take off parabolically.
I’m not there … yet.
Bart
NVDA – February 19, 2024
Posted on February 19, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last post on NVDA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/11/nvda-august-11-2023/
When I look back at NVDA it’s been an interesting ride. I don’t trade it or own it, I enjoy charting it as a barometer of the overhyped insanity of this market. And, it’s a good use of my time picking off points of inflections and such .. I’m actually looking to deploy capital in the forex world but I just can’t seem to find a pattern. Ain’t going to force it …
Anyway, do I think it’s about time the NVDA rocket ship pauses – sure. It’s been on a crazy trajectory. I have the good old measured move abcd target at/around 7878 and come other targets a little higher and a little lower. It might have hit the extension target and that’s it. I know, wait until the PATTERN completes and, unfortunately, that’s a little higher.
While the patter was never hit for the buy, the “chart angle” did hold which I did identify if you go back a few posts. I just forgot about it and then the “chart art” was erased and there it was … oh well.
KRE – February 18, 2024
Posted on February 18, 2024 1 Comment
Here is an intraday look (30 minute) chart of KRE. A “near perfect” sell pattern has formed .. ideally, we would like the KRE to make a move up into the short zone.
Remember, IF this pattern fails (say that is a close (daily) above 62) then, I do imagine this will cause some fuel for the continued equity rally.
IF this pattern works THEN I’m afraid something ain’t right at the KRE world …let’s see what happens w/ the patterns.
DPZ – February 13, 2024
Posted on February 13, 2024 Leave a Comment
These are the type of shorts you wait for….which, of course, always means it could fail miserably so always have a risk controlled gameplan.
If we break from current levels then try some short … or go full short if you really want, but I’ve been burned not waiting for the ABCD but with the entire market making “a” a top (who knows “if” the top) then perhaps this is as high as it goes … again, it’s all probability.
But look at this one …. all the ratios present around 460 .. got to take a shot ….
Natural Gas – February 12, 2024
Posted on February 12, 2024 Leave a Comment
The Monthly (continuous contract) Natural Gas pattern has failed.
CTRL-ALT – DEL
UNG: expect support in/around 10-12, wait for a WEEKLY/MONTHLY signal reversal and BUY.
Take note of the RSI – haven’t pulled this rabbit out of the hat in a long time but – someone take a look and check on me – but the RSI LOWS ARE HIGHER while the UNG LOWS ARE LOWER.
CMT II (I think) – this is an RSI reversal. It refers to a situation where the RSI indicator moves in a direction opposite to the price, suggesting a potential change in the price trend.
At this point, that’s our only hope … first time I have EVER seen this in my charting history …
Put on your tinfoil hats …
