NYSE Index – March 03, 2024
Posted on March 3, 2024 Leave a Comment
The concept of a “square out” is one of the most important in all of harmonic trading.
In this case, we believe that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … they are a NUMBER and they are intertwined. Say price makes a high (or low) of 50 … then 50 seconds, 50 hours, 50 days, 50 degrees of planetary motion (time), etc. etc. are spun out.
For the NYSE Index we have a BIG square out approaching.
The all time low on the NYSE Index was on 10/03/1974. That was, from tomorrow, 18050 calendar days ago.
18050-17728 (Friday’s close) = 322 points.
We are 322 points away from a HUGE square out of PRICE and TIME.
Take note of the last “big high” about 2 years ago … in that case, the market closed at 17,259 which so happened to be EXACTLY 17,259 calendars from the all time low. That is the significance of the red trendline – it’s the 45 degree angle and 1:1 or 1 point/day trendline. We REALLY want to NYSE Index to climb another 300 points to tag that red trend line … perhaps that happens mid-late next week.
Additionally, we have pretty large bearish divergence on the MONTHLY RSI and we have the same “fractal” pattern that existed in the move before the 2020 thump.
Then, just a little bit higher we have the measured moves which have been responsible for EVERY UP MOVE since the beginning of this index.
I sense/ believe, we are getting very close to a top (maybe THE top but I sense “A” top) ….
You’re probably aware the fear and greed sentiment indicators are thru the roof w/ extreme greed and then “Mr. Reliable” shows up … the “magazine cover indicator”
Last, here’s the geometry of the NYSE Index derived from the BIG MOVE off the low from 1974.
On this chart you will notice I put the “retracements” at the lows of 2002, 2009 and 2020 using the “node” of the all time low. The reason I do this is to check and see (Ronald Regan – TRUST but verify) if this is a significant node. As you can see, drawing the retracement grids using the all time low as near perfect.
2002 = .382 retracement
2009 = .618 retracement
2020 = .382 retracement.
This is a good number …how good?
Well, 350*51.50 = 18, 025 which so happens to be the exact angle of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Just saying …. 😉
That vector (blue arrow) represents the “rock hitting the water” and creates the harmony and music ….
And, of course, all this means is it could very well blow thru this level and take off parabolically.
I’m not there … yet.
Bart
NVDA – February 19, 2024
Posted on February 19, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last post on NVDA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/11/nvda-august-11-2023/
When I look back at NVDA it’s been an interesting ride. I don’t trade it or own it, I enjoy charting it as a barometer of the overhyped insanity of this market. And, it’s a good use of my time picking off points of inflections and such .. I’m actually looking to deploy capital in the forex world but I just can’t seem to find a pattern. Ain’t going to force it …
Anyway, do I think it’s about time the NVDA rocket ship pauses – sure. It’s been on a crazy trajectory. I have the good old measured move abcd target at/around 7878 and come other targets a little higher and a little lower. It might have hit the extension target and that’s it. I know, wait until the PATTERN completes and, unfortunately, that’s a little higher.
While the patter was never hit for the buy, the “chart angle” did hold which I did identify if you go back a few posts. I just forgot about it and then the “chart art” was erased and there it was … oh well.
KRE – February 18, 2024
Posted on February 18, 2024 1 Comment
Here is an intraday look (30 minute) chart of KRE. A “near perfect” sell pattern has formed .. ideally, we would like the KRE to make a move up into the short zone.
Remember, IF this pattern fails (say that is a close (daily) above 62) then, I do imagine this will cause some fuel for the continued equity rally.
IF this pattern works THEN I’m afraid something ain’t right at the KRE world …let’s see what happens w/ the patterns.
DPZ – February 13, 2024
Posted on February 13, 2024 Leave a Comment
These are the type of shorts you wait for….which, of course, always means it could fail miserably so always have a risk controlled gameplan.
If we break from current levels then try some short … or go full short if you really want, but I’ve been burned not waiting for the ABCD but with the entire market making “a” a top (who knows “if” the top) then perhaps this is as high as it goes … again, it’s all probability.
But look at this one …. all the ratios present around 460 .. got to take a shot ….
Natural Gas – February 12, 2024
Posted on February 12, 2024 Leave a Comment
The Monthly (continuous contract) Natural Gas pattern has failed.
CTRL-ALT – DEL
UNG: expect support in/around 10-12, wait for a WEEKLY/MONTHLY signal reversal and BUY.
Take note of the RSI – haven’t pulled this rabbit out of the hat in a long time but – someone take a look and check on me – but the RSI LOWS ARE HIGHER while the UNG LOWS ARE LOWER.
CMT II (I think) – this is an RSI reversal. It refers to a situation where the RSI indicator moves in a direction opposite to the price, suggesting a potential change in the price trend.
At this point, that’s our only hope … first time I have EVER seen this in my charting history …
Put on your tinfoil hats …
TLT – February 2, 2024
Posted on February 5, 2024 1 Comment
For now, I see this as an A-B-C correction w/ a move down occurring which should be BOUGHT to take up into the mid 100’s – for now.
I say for now because I’m a little “stung” (not that bad but just “stunned” ) I didn’t see the size of the rally in equities. I admit it, I was too stuck into “another leg down” (which I wanted to BUY OBTW) but that “one more leg down” never came … and a parabolic blow off had occurred. Nailed the October low but … missed the move.
So, just like I feel comfortable stocks are setting up for a BIG MOVE down (now or soon’ish) I feel pretty good that the low we made was the end of a 5 count move. If not, then we finsihed a 3 down around 84 and we have another move down below 84. Who knows …
But, given that I am “correct” I have put realistic target up there because, in this current environment, the TLT could go all the way up to 180 and STILL be against the “trend” which – I believe started w/ the high back a couple years ago.
And that, for me, is the key … that was a huge thumping and, the ‘look and feel’, tells me this isn’t going to be ‘easy’ or ‘cut and dry’ – can you President Biden enjoying the FED “raising rates” during and election year? Or, certainly would love for him to “cut rates” and how in the world , seriously, is he going to do that …?
So, this was a GREAT run down in TLT -in which I played LONG TBT and still long and hold a position – but from a “time” perspective I just think we need more TIME so I’m looking to BUY TLT after I see what happens at 91.18.
THIS is important – February 4, 2024
Posted on February 4, 2024 1 Comment
Banks lead us UP and Banks lead us down.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading-regional-banks/index.html
True, we have ‘some’ indexes making new highs but we also have some well below there highs in 2023. Market appears fractured …
- DJ Utilities and DJ Transportation – lower highs.
- DJ Composite, Russell, Value Line, SK&P 400 mid-cap – all down
- Financials – still holding strong w/ regard to sell patterns
- Junk Bonds still holding strong w/ regard to sell patterns
- Multiple long term SELL PATTERNS completing
Until Junk Bonds and the Financials really break out … I’m very cautious.
According to EWT and the WSJ of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500, only 1, technology, accompanied the index to new all time highs. The other 10 are all at least 15% below their highs.
A key index to watch and one which will give us an idea of where we “really are” is the KRE …
Here is the SELL PATTERN forming on KRE:
The pattern, THUS FAR, has worked perfectly … if it keeps working the regional banks are in trouble folks and that means pressure on the equities.
Sorry, not all in on this rally in the overall equity world UNTIL KRE smoke this sell pattern w/ a WEEKLY CLOSE on strength above 55.
If KRE keeps going lower, something is a foot at the circle K.
IBM – January 30, 2024
Posted on January 30, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last posts on IBM:
- https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/25/ibm-february-25-2023/
- https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2018/11/03/ibm-failure-and-a-new-set-up/
Taking some off the table w/ IBM.
Let the rest run w a stop below 174 on a daily close. Polarity – support is resistance and resistance is support.
Certainly looks like a run to new highs …
Bart's Charts 