Global Dow (again) – April 17, 2024
Posted on April 17, 2024 2 Comments
My friend Ponch and I are digging deep into the nature of the markets and, frankly, into the nature of reality. No kidding …
He might be THE expert (yes, that’s a bold claim but go look at his website or listen to one his podcasts – the man is brilliant!) at John Boyd’s the OODA loop.
We are discussing a theory we have around the OODA loop, consciousness, fractals and the creation of this 3D Holographic Game by the brain – frame by frame every instant – governed by the principles of natural law.
Did I just right that …? Back to the charts ….
Ponch asked me – why didn’t you pick the first low to the high ? The answer – I’m a straight shooter , “I don’t know, I just liked the one going down.” No kidding … but, like I wrote last night, you could do that and the trendlines might not be the same but they would be harmonic. Well, take a peak … X certainly seems to mark the spot now, doesn’t it …
For further discussion … think about this, seriously.
While I FULLY admit that the patterns have failed – it’s all probability folks but I have found NOTHING better at helping you get awesome entries, exits and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, risk control. WE ALWAYS KNOW WHERE WE ARE WRONG!
So, that being said, philosophically, let’s think about what’s going on here …yes, I am doing this “post price action.” I’m doing these exercises to expose the geometry and hidden order behind it ALL.
You see, once that initial high off the all time low – on a long range timelines is what I prefer – we have SET the vibration for the rest of this securities existence. (Sound familiar – think of YOU taking your first primordial breadth – the place and time (price and time sound familiar) of that first primoridal breadth sets YOUR vibration for the rest of your life. So, when a stock takes its first trade, the ENERGY or VIBRATIONS , begin … but the fundamental wave or frequency of that vibration won’t complete it’s period (see where were going) until it exhausts that first breadth… or high (in this case of the Global Dow)
During that time of the run up – the clocks that govern time for EVERYTHING – yes, the planets have moved a certain amount of degrees – singles, aspects, heliocentric, geocentric, etc. etc. – and that’s how you can start figuring out “which planets it’s shucking and jiving with or what pairs by understanding the impact of it’s IPO date/time. Yeah, no kidding … whatever planet is governing or lesser will give you clues and then … the cycle has begun and the waves go out – all according to natural law and, with ALL of nature being governed by sacred geometry and fractals we can use the same governing principles in anything that grows and contracts … and there we have it – the market.
Pattern recognition is based on the same natural laws that cover all of creation w/in this 3D Polarized Holographic game called life. The entire game is created under the same mathematical structure using constants and mathematical/physics principals that, essentially create and piece together this hologram.
Everything is vibration which creates waves which are governed by mathematical principals based on music.
These vibrations cause reality (they are all at different vibrations – just like all of us) and are perfect subjects to allow the 5 senses to feed the 12 cranial nerves of the brain so the brain can do what – PATTERN MATCH the information that is coming in to create thru our brain the reality we are witnessing. WOW.
The only way for the brain to be able to do that is to make every piece of the game be birthed from the one and created thru the one experiencing life thru it’s first division just like we do over and over and over again.
With all the above being said, that’s why I use pattern recognition to simply manage risk.
And, one last, if I’m drawing the squares off of one vector from the low to the high (or the first major correction) then isn’t the angles formed from that first initial move already in place …? 🙂
Global Dow – April 16, 2024
Posted on April 16, 2024 Leave a Comment
Tonight, for whatever reason, it was the Global Dow.
The past few weeks have been pretty amazing. I’ve done a TON of reading and sketching (yes, Mr. Robert Edward Grant got me into it) and a TON of BrainTap and meditating. Mr. Grant is an amazing follow and teacher. Recommend him – highly. A bright shining light counterbalancing some of the darkness gripping our FELLOW HUMANS. I’ll stop there … we are ALL connected. Be light ….
Anyhoo … in light of the above it was nice to kick back and go to a chart I had not looked at in a long time and come at it w/ fresh eyes. As I sat down, I said “what the heck is the rest of the world doing?” These times are the craziest I’ve ever seen … come on folks, take off your political hat (if you wear one, I DO NOT) and just admit – left, right, center – it’s flipping crazy out there right now!
Ahhhhh … the Global Dow.
I opened the chart, w/ NOTHING on it (no indicators or drawings) – just price and time.
Everyone can see the “measured move” that I chose as the “rock hitting the water” point. You could have used the all time low up into that big first high – it would have given, more than likely, different trend lines BUT I imagine it would have given trend lines that are significant and harmonic with the trend lines we have drawn.
The blue measured move arrow produces EVERY SINGLE bit of the geometry shown in the chart below. Take some time and just follow the bouncing ball up the chart and look at the GEOMETRY that this particular VIBRATION (the blue arrow) created.
Now, look at the top … the all time low, to the first high and then down (the blue arrow) projection is, yup, 1.618AB=CD and, the last swing in/around the 2022 timeframe is a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618).
Trying not to confuse anyone w/ too many lines I’ve also drawn the 1.618 projection AND a dashed (feint) purple measured move which is equal – exactly – to the last swing high.
Now, just for a little fun, what was the EXACT high in January 2022?
4320 – 432 HZ. Thank you Mr. Grant.
All this being said, where are we?
Definitely against some STIFF resistance so going down for a bit is a good highly probable bet.
Is this THE top … I really don’t think so. Not that my counting is anything to write home about, but I do have a BULLISH count after this pullback – representing this is all this really is … a healthy pullback in an ongoing, potentially extending 5th wave. My other count is we are starting a wicked and, potentially THUMPING, C wave down. Ain’t Elliott Wave great?
Throwing any EWT aside, batten down the hatches, try and get some shorts on and just get ready for some volatility – potentially like we’ve never seen before or haven’t seen in a VERY long time. That’s just where we are all folks.
Folks … pretty amazing chart above. This is NOT about me … it’s about BELIEVING is SEEEING. (Thanks Mr. Grant)
SEEING the inherent PERFECT geometry in it all … and just sitting down in front of a chart and letting your eyes put together what they put together for your BRAIN every second they are open … guess, after time, the PATTERN RECOGNITION is nothing more than what you are doing – right now – reading this blog (if you’ve gone this far 🙂 )
Cheers – Bart
TAN – April 11, 2024
Posted on April 11, 2024 2 Comments
Looks like we have a VERY nice set up getting ready to run:
TAN – Invesco SOLAR ETF. There are multiple Solar plays out there. I’m lazy, so I went to the ETF that covers the ecosystem.
We have a lot of positive indications that this one is worth the risk. This investment will be – more than likely – 3 years+ and I’ve been following it ever since David Keller, CMT (who I think is one of THE best out there) started talking about it years ago. Come to think about it, it might have been in the 2010-2015 area.
Anyway, here’s the way I see it –
*EWT is showing us STILL in wave 3 and that means we have some ways to go higher … I “like” the count and it doesn’t break any rules BUT please remember my golf game and EWT – we have some parenthesis present so I could very easily be subconsciously “forcing” myself into this count. Oh well, but you know me – full disclosure here.
*Volume is showing and interesting “breakout” – what I mean is volume steadily declined as the price declined greater than 60%. Once we “bottomed” notice how volume “broke out” and broke thru the resistance and is getting bigger as we are bottoming?
*This is the biggest one for me – the illusory TIME component. In this case we have the SAME TIME COMPONENT PRESENT for the two ‘major’ corrections thru thus far.
* Take the above about TIME and note what the price is sitting on – exactly – the 786 from the all time low to the most recent high. Nice.
*In this long recommendation – the price will HAVE TO overcome the red resistance line – due to polarity. A conservative play would be to BUY only w/ a monthly or weekly close above the red line. There is still plenty of room to run.
The next chart shows the “count” and in a bullish scenario – this ETF is getting ready to RUN. A .68179 (musical note) projection (monthly), sitting on top of the .786 from all time low to most recent high, RSI support which is showing the classic “breakout” to new resistance high for a BULLISH trend and, most importantly on this chart is THE EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE PRICE CORRECTION as the last correction move.
There we have it – PRICE equals TIME w/ other, important, but lesser confirmations from traditional technical analysis tools.
DJIA since 1897
Posted on April 10, 2024 Leave a Comment
Appears we have a pretty important trend line w/ big bearish divergence on the Monthly.
Note, cropped the wick in 1929 to hit the highs in 2000 and 2022.
The Markets – March 24, 2024
Posted on March 24, 2024 1 Comment
The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.
As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.
Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.
Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:
The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:
On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.
If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.
Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.
Where are you Mr. KRE?
The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.
The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.
I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.
We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?
Larry showed this over the weekend:
when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:
A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.
When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.
The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.
There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …
NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.
Here’s LLY parabolic:
Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:
The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.
If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.
I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.
ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …
IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.
IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.
MANAGE THE RISK … that’s all we can do.
Bitcoin – March 17, 2024
Posted on March 17, 2024 3 Comments
I feel “pretty good” about this count as it’s been tracking ever since the “top” at 3.
Certainly appears we are in THE 5th wave … it could mark a 1 but either way, when complete, I do expect quite the meltdown.
No rules have been broken thus far –
- 2 can’t go below the start of 1 – check
- 3 can’t be the shortest – check
- 4 can’t overlap the beginning of 1 – check
Thus – looks like a 5th wave is in progress. the most recent price action “feels” like a 3rd of a 3rd so expect some up down up to complete 3, then a nice correction for 4 and then up up into the 5th of the 5th wave.
Targets, for now, are in/around 102-123. Will tighten as these levels approach ..
Also, don’t be surprised if it parabolically takes off also …
NYSE Index – March 03, 2024
Posted on March 3, 2024 Leave a Comment
The concept of a “square out” is one of the most important in all of harmonic trading.
In this case, we believe that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … they are a NUMBER and they are intertwined. Say price makes a high (or low) of 50 … then 50 seconds, 50 hours, 50 days, 50 degrees of planetary motion (time), etc. etc. are spun out.
For the NYSE Index we have a BIG square out approaching.
The all time low on the NYSE Index was on 10/03/1974. That was, from tomorrow, 18050 calendar days ago.
18050-17728 (Friday’s close) = 322 points.
We are 322 points away from a HUGE square out of PRICE and TIME.
Take note of the last “big high” about 2 years ago … in that case, the market closed at 17,259 which so happened to be EXACTLY 17,259 calendars from the all time low. That is the significance of the red trendline – it’s the 45 degree angle and 1:1 or 1 point/day trendline. We REALLY want to NYSE Index to climb another 300 points to tag that red trend line … perhaps that happens mid-late next week.
Additionally, we have pretty large bearish divergence on the MONTHLY RSI and we have the same “fractal” pattern that existed in the move before the 2020 thump.
Then, just a little bit higher we have the measured moves which have been responsible for EVERY UP MOVE since the beginning of this index.
I sense/ believe, we are getting very close to a top (maybe THE top but I sense “A” top) ….
You’re probably aware the fear and greed sentiment indicators are thru the roof w/ extreme greed and then “Mr. Reliable” shows up … the “magazine cover indicator”
Last, here’s the geometry of the NYSE Index derived from the BIG MOVE off the low from 1974.
On this chart you will notice I put the “retracements” at the lows of 2002, 2009 and 2020 using the “node” of the all time low. The reason I do this is to check and see (Ronald Regan – TRUST but verify) if this is a significant node. As you can see, drawing the retracement grids using the all time low as near perfect.
2002 = .382 retracement
2009 = .618 retracement
2020 = .382 retracement.
This is a good number …how good?
Well, 350*51.50 = 18, 025 which so happens to be the exact angle of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Just saying …. 😉
That vector (blue arrow) represents the “rock hitting the water” and creates the harmony and music ….
And, of course, all this means is it could very well blow thru this level and take off parabolically.
I’m not there … yet.
Bart
NVDA – February 19, 2024
Posted on February 19, 2024 Leave a Comment
Last post on NVDA: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/08/11/nvda-august-11-2023/
When I look back at NVDA it’s been an interesting ride. I don’t trade it or own it, I enjoy charting it as a barometer of the overhyped insanity of this market. And, it’s a good use of my time picking off points of inflections and such .. I’m actually looking to deploy capital in the forex world but I just can’t seem to find a pattern. Ain’t going to force it …
Anyway, do I think it’s about time the NVDA rocket ship pauses – sure. It’s been on a crazy trajectory. I have the good old measured move abcd target at/around 7878 and come other targets a little higher and a little lower. It might have hit the extension target and that’s it. I know, wait until the PATTERN completes and, unfortunately, that’s a little higher.
While the patter was never hit for the buy, the “chart angle” did hold which I did identify if you go back a few posts. I just forgot about it and then the “chart art” was erased and there it was … oh well.
Bart's Charts 